BIREGIONAL WEC FORUM NORTH AMERICA, LATIN AMERICA

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BIREGIONAL WEC FORUMNORTH AMERICA, LATIN AMERICA
THE CARIBBEANJohn RitchieHatch Acres
Inc.Niagara Falls, Canada
Session III Major Investment Projects - Canada
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Presentation Outline

• Canadas Energy Resources in a World Context
• Distribution of Resources in Canada
• Overview of Committed and Near-Term Projects
• Major Projects
• Summary

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1 Canadas Energy Resources in a World
Context

World 1300 29 6300 94 910,000 5500 17,000 280
0 14,000 2800
Canada 174 1.1 56 6 6600 66 570 90 1000 350
13 4 1 7 1 1 3 3 7 12
Rank 2 8 20 3 13 20 8 7 4 1
Crude Oil Reserves (Billion bbl) Crude Oil
Production (Billion bbl/yr) Natural Gas Reserves
(TCF) Natural Gas Production (TCF/yr) Coal
Reserves (Million Tonnes) Coal Production
(Million Tonnes) Electricity Generation
(Twh/yr) Nuclear Energy Generation
(Twh/yr) Tech. Hydro Potential
(Twh/yr) Hydroelectric Energy Generation (Twh/yr)
Source Canadian Centre for Energy Information
and BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005
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Worlds Top Proved Oil Reserves
Source NR Can and Oil and Gas Journal, December
20, 2004. Figures are as of January 1, 2005
.
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2 Distribution of Resources in Canada

• Crude Oil and Equivalent Reserves
• Alberta (78), Saskatchewan (10), Atlantic
  Offshore (8), Northern Canada (3), BC (1),
• Natural Gas Reserves
• Alberta (74), BC (18), Saskatchewan (5),
  Atlantic Offshore (1), Mackenzie pipeline adds
  10 Tcf to Canadas proven reserves (64 Tcf
  ultimate)
• Coal Reserves
• Alberta (60), BC (25), Saskatchewan (10),
  Northern Canada (4), Nova Scotia (2)
• Hydropower Installed Capacity
• - Québec (54), BC (16), Newfoundland (11),
  Ontario (10), Manitoba (7)

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2 Distribution of Resources in Canada
34,000
12,000
6700
900
8,000
900
5000
900
400

• Canadas Installed Capacity - Hydro Total
• Hydro 69,000 MW
• Total 115,000 MW

Source CHA
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2 Distribution of Resources in Canada
44,000
33,000
18,000
12,000
4000
9000
12,000
4000
10,000
9000
9000

• Canadas Remaining
• Technical Hydro Potential (MW)
• Total 163,000 MW

Source CHA
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2 Distribution of Resources in Canada
25,000
12,000
4000
5000
4000
3000
2000
4000

• Canadas Remaining
• Economic/Environmental Hydro Potential (MW)
• Total 55,000 MW (south)
• Possible 4000 12,000 MW (north)

Approximate Estimates
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3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term
ProjectsOil Production Projects

• Dominant Project Category
• Over C 15 Billion of projects under construction
  
• C 40 to C 50 Billion planned to 2015
• Major expansion of oil production capacity from
  present 2.5 million b/d to 4.6 million b/d by
  2015
• Major Project Categories
• Oilsands - Mining
• Oilsands In situ Extraction
• Upgraders

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3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term
Projects Oil Production Outlook
Source CAPP
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3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term
Projects Major Oil Production Projects

• Projected Expenditures
• C 40 - C 50 billion 2005 - 2015 Oilsands
  alone(identified projects)
• Under Construction - Alberta - over C 15 Billion
• CNRL - Horizon (mining) Ph 1 110,000 b/d C
  6.8 Billion by 2008
• OPTI/Nexen - Long Lake (in situ) Ph 1 70,000
  b/d C 3.8 Billion by 2007
• ConocoPhillips - Surmont (in situ) - 50,000 b/d -
  C 1.4 Billion by 2006
• Near Term Projects - Alberta - over C 13 Billion
• CNRL - Horizon (mining) Ph 2, 3 135,000 b/d
  C 3.1 Billion , 2006-2009
• Imperial Oil - Kearl Lake (mining) Ph 1 100,000
  b/d C 2.3 Billion, 2007-2010
• Petro-Can et al - Fort Hills OS (mining)
  100,000 b/d C 2.0 Billion, 2006-2010
• Shell - Scotford Upgrader Exp. 90,000 b/d C
  2.7 Billion, 2006-1010

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3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term
ProjectsMajor Oil Gas Transportation Projects

• Projected Expenditures
• C 17 billion 2006-2025
• Under Construction - Smaller Projects
• Near Term Pipeline Projects - Alberta U.S. -
  over C 5 Billion
• Enbridge Waupisoo 350,000 b/d C 0.5
  Billion - 2008
• Kinder Morgan Corridor 240,000 b/d C 1.5
  Billion - 2008
• Trans Canada Keystone 435,000 b/d C 2.6
  Billion - 2009
• Near Term LNG Import Projects Eastern Canada
  C 1.5 Billion
• Irving Oil / Repsol - Canaport LNG - 1 bcf/d C
  0.8 Billion - 2008
• Petro-Can/Trans Canada Gros Cacouna 0.5 bcf/d
  C 0.7 Billion - 2009
• Longer Term Pipeline Projects includes major
  new gas pipelines
• Mackenzie Pipeline - 1.2 bcf/d C 7 Billion
• Alaska Pipeline 4.0 bcf/d C 23 Billion

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3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term
ProjectsMajor Thermal Power Projects

• Under Construction - Ontario - C 1.4 Billion
• Portlands CCGT - C 0.6 Billion - 550 MW
• Sithe Goreway CCGT - C 0.8 Billion - 900 MW
• Near Term Projects - Alberta - C 1.9 Billion
• Keephills Unit 3 - Coal - C 0.9 Billion - 450 MW
• Bow City - Coal - C 2.4 Billion - 1000 MW
  cost includes Coal Mine development

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3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term
ProjectsMajor Nuclear Power Projects

• New Emphasis on Nuclear Power likely in Canada
• Under Construction - Ontario New Brunswick - C
  5.6 Billion
• Bruce A Units 12 Re-Start - C 4.2 Billion 2 _at_
  800 MW
• Point Lepreau Refurbishment C 1.4 Billion -
  680 MW
• Planned Projects- Ontario
• Before 2020
• Refurbish over 10,000 MW of existing nuclear 14
  units _at_ C 1 to C 1.5 Billion
• After 2015
• 4000 MW of new nuclear C 6 Billion

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3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term
ProjectsMajor Hydropower Projects

• Continued construction in Québec, new projects in
  Manitoba, Newfoundland Labrador
• Under Construction - Québec Ontario - 5.0
  Billion
• Québec
• Eastmain 1 - C 2.2 Billion - 480 MW
• Chûte-Allard/RDC - C 0.7 Billion - 138 MW
• Péribonka - C 1.5 Billion - 385 MW
• Ontario
• Niagara Tunnel - C 0.6 Billion
• Near Term Projects - Québec Manitoba - C 5.7
  Billion
• Québec
• Eastmain 1A - C 4.6 Billion - 888 MW
• Manitoba
• Wuskwatim - C 1.1 Billion - 200 MW

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3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term
ProjectsMajor Hydropower Projects

• Planned Projects - C 21.6 Billion
• Québec
• La Romaine - C 7.0 Billion - 1550 MW
• Manitoba
• Keeyask C 3.0 Billion 620 MW
• Conawapa C 5.0 Billion 1250 MW
• Newfoundland Labrador
• Lower Churchill (Gull Island) - C 4.5 Billion -
  2000 MW
• Lower Churchill (Muskrat Falls) C 2.1 Billion
  824 MW

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3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term
ProjectsMajor HV Power Transmission Projects

• Most Projects Under C 0.5 Billion Grid
  Reinforcement
• Near Term Project - C 0.6 Billion
• Alberta
• Edmonton Calgary Reinforcement - C 0.6 Billion
  500kV
• Planned Projects - C 7 Billion
• Manitoba
• Bipole 3 C 1.2 Billion 500 kV DC
• Manitoba Ontario Interconnector C 2 Billion
  500 kV DC
• Newfoundland Labrador
• Labrador Newfoundland DC Line C 2 Billion
  400 kV DC
• Québec
• Transmission for La Romaine project - C 1.5
  Billion

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4 Major Projects Oil Production

• Typical Oilsands
• Mining Project
• Deposits to 80m depth
• Strip Overburden, mine materials, truck and
  shovel methods (large equipment)
• Separation uses warm water, agitation
• Typical breakeven cost US 25-30 per barrel

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4 Major Projects Oil Production

• Typical In Situ Oilsands
• Mining Project
• Deposits over 80m depth
• Add heat to reduce viscosity, pump to surface
• Cyclic Steam Stimulation (CSS) - steam injected
  via vertical wells
• Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) -
  horizontal wells
• Other approaches under development, including
  N-Solv (Less energy required)
• Typical breakeven cost higher than mining projects

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4 Major Projects Oil Gas Pipelines

• Keystone
• Pipeline Project
• OwnerTransCanada Corp.
• Capacity 435,000 b/d - 3000 km, 30ø
• Capital Cost C 2.6 Billion
• Construction Schedule 2008 2009
• Regulatory and consultation process under way in
  Canada U.S.
• Over 50 of pipeline length in U.S.

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4 Major Projects Oil Gas Pipelines
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4 Major Projects Thermal Nuclear
Power

• Bruce A
• Units 1 2 Restart
• OwnerBruce Power
• Capacity 2 units _at_800 MW
• (Total on site 4700 to 6200 MW)
• Capital Cost C 4.5 Billion
• Construction Schedule 2006 2010
• Scope Includes
• Tube replacement in reactors
• Steam generator replacement
• Electrical Auxiliary system refurbishment/upgrad
  es

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4 Major Projects Thermal Nuclear
Power

• Bow City Power Project
• OwnerLuscar Ltd.
• Capacity 500 MW (ultimate 1000 MW)
• Capital Cost C 2.4 Billion, including coal
  mine development
• Construction Schedule 2007 2010/2014
• Scope Includes
• Two 500 MW supercritical coal-fired units
• Surface coal mine
• Coal production plant

Model of Turbine Hall
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4 Major Projects Hydropower

• Eastmain 1
• Hydroelectric Project
• OwnerHydro-Québec
• Capacity
• 480 MW
• Dam Height
• 70 m.
• Capital Cost C 2.3 Billion
• Construction 2002 2006
• Unique partnership with Cree communities

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4 Major Projects Hydropower

• Wuskwatim
• Hydroelectric Project
• OwnersManitoba HydroNisichawayasihk Cree Nation
• Capacity
• 200 MW
• Dam Height
• 14 m.
• Capital Cost C 1.1 Billion
• Construction Schedule 2007 2012
• Project designed to minimize flooding and impacts
• Unique partnership with aboriginal community

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4 Major Projects Hydropower

• Lower Churchill
• Gull Island
• OwnerNewfoundland Labrador Hydro
• Capacity
• 2000 MW 12TW-h/yr
• Dam
• 100 m high, 1300 m long
• Capital Cost C 4.5 Billion includes AC
• transmission in Labrador
• Construction Schedule2009 2015

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5 Summary

• Under Construction - C 27 Billion
• Oilsands - C 15 Billion
• Nuclear Power - C 6 Billion
• Hydropower - C 5 Billion
• Thermal Power - C 1 Billion
• Near Term Projects - C 26 Billion
• Oilsands - C 13 Billion
• Hydropower - C 6 Billion
• Pipelines LNG - C 5 Billion
• Thermal Power - C 2 Billion

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5 Summary

• Investment requirements
• Oilsands - accelerate production capacity
• Oil Gas Transportation - accommodate demand,
  production increase
• Thermal Power meet load growth in Alberta,
  Ontario
• Nuclear Power - major investments in Ontario
• Hydropower - continued major investments in
  Quebec, new investments in Manitoba,
  Newfoundland Labrador
• HV Transmission - many areas need investment
• Implementation Constraints
• Finance and Project Economics
• Specialized Labour
• Regulatory - especially nuclear, hydro , HV
  transmission