INPE Activities on Seasonal Climate Predictions

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INPE Activities on Seasonal Climate Predictions

• Paulo Nobre
• INPE-CCST-CPTEC
• WGSIP-12, Miami, 12-14 January 2009

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Seasonal Climate Prediction at CPTEC
Models Suite
OBJECTIVE ENSEMBLE FORECAST
SST FORECASTS
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seasonal prediction operational runs

• Global Atmospheric GCM
• KUO, RAS, GRELL, DERF
• SST NCEP CFS CPTEC CCA FCST, prescribed SSTA
• 120 Members per month
• 4 months forecast
• Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM
• T062L28, RAS atmos, ¼ degree, L20, 40S-40N
  ocean
• 10 Members per month
• 7 months forecast
• Regional Atmospheric Eta Model
• 40 Km grid L38 over South America
• AGCM T062L28, Kuo, LBC
• 5 members per month
• 4 months forecast
• DERF Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM
• T126L28, RAS atmos, ¼ degree, L20, 65S-65N ocean
• 2 members per day
• 30 days forecast

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Anomaly Correlation Geopot. Hight over South
America
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Seasonal Climate Prediction at INPE-CPTEC

• Real-time monthly meetings encompassing
  institutions from Brasil, Argentina, and Peru
• http//visitview.cptec.inpe.br/clima/1108/poia.htm
  l
• Ensemble of AGCM and CGCM runs done at CPTEC as
  well as those done at IRI
• Dynamical downscaling using RCMs nested at CPTEC
  and ECHAM4.5 AGCM outputs
• Consensus precipitation forecast in terciles
  Above, Normal, Below
• Consensus temperature forecast Above/Below

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Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere predictability experiment

• OGCM Modular Ocean Model (MOM3)?
• Global Tropics (40S 40N)?
• 1/4 x 1/4 degree deep tropics of the Atlantic
  Ocean
• Pacanowski and Philander vertical mixing
• Rigid lid approximation
• CGCM (daily, fully coupled) to CPTEC AGCM,
  T062L28, RAS, SSiB.
• Atmos IC NCEP
• Ocean IC MOM3 forced runs, no Ocean Data
  Assimilation
• 10 members, 20 years of 8 month forecast runs for
  the 12 calendar month for both AGCM and CGCM,
  totaling 3200 years of integration at INPE's
  NEC-SX6.

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OGCM Grid
High Res 0.25º Lon Lat Tropical Atlantic
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Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere processes at playDJF
Precipitation Forecasts anomaly correlations
Increased Coupled Model Forecast Skill
Nobre et al. (2008, in prep)?
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Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere processes at playDJF
Precipitation Forecasts anomaly correlations
Decreased Coupled Model Forecast Skill
Nobre et al. (2008, in prep)?
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Eastern Oceans Coupled O-A Interactions
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CGCM SWRad systematic errors
8S 30W
0N 0E
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INPE's CGCM Evolution

• Version 1.1
• COLA AGCM, RAS, SIB, T042L18,
• anomaly coupling to MOM2 at 1/3 degree deep
  global tropics, 40S-40N, L20, rigid lid.
• Version 1.2
• CPTEC/COLA AGCM, RAS, SSiB, T062L28,
• fully coupled to MOM3, daily coupling, at ¼
  degree deep global tropics, 40S-40N, L20, rigid
  lid.
• Version 2.0
• CPTEC AGCM 2.0, Kuo/RAS/Grell, SsiB/IBIS, T213L64
  
• fully coupled to MOM4 , 3 hourly coupling, at 1/8
  degree deep tropics, global, L50, free surface,
  sea ice biogeochemistry
• GFDL's FMS coupler

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MOM 4s FMS COUPLER
Coupler Init
Coupled Loop
Sfc Boundary Layer
SST-2-Atmos
Flux Ocean to Ice
Atmos Model Run
Atmos-2-Ice
Update Ice Model up
Flux down from Atmos
Avg psurf
Atmos Loop
Fast
Update Land Model
Atmos Loop End
Update Ice Model
Slow Loop
Flux up to Atmos
Update Land Model
Update Atmos Model up
Flux Land to Ice
Update Ice Model down
Flux Ice to Ocean
Ocean Loop
Fast
Update Ocean Model
Ocean Loop End
Coupled Loop
Coupler End
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INPE-CPTEC CGCM V.2.0 T213 L64, 6 hourly
coupling30 days avrg spinup SST
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INPE-CPTEC CGCM V.2.0 T213 L64, 6 hourly
coupling30 days avrg spinup Precip
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INPE's CCSTCenter of Earth System Science

• Create the Brazilian Model of the Climate System
• Produce and disseminate operational climate
  predictions on time scales of years to decades
• Generate the Brazilian contribution to IPCC AR5
  (in cooperation with Hadley Centre and NCAR)?
• Graduate program on Earth Sciences