DROUGHT MONITORING IN SOUTHERN AFRICA DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

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DROUGHT MONITORING IN SOUTHERN AFRICA DEVELOPMENT
COMMUNITY
International Workshop on Climate and Land
Degradation Lamgando Conference Hall, Impala
Hotel, ARUSHA, United Republic of Tanzania, 11-15
December 2006
Bradwell J. Garanganga SADC DROUGHT MONITORING
CENTRE e.mail garangan_at_dmc.co.zw Website
http//www.dmc.co.zw
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SADC Drought Monitoring Centre
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• Presentation Format
• Introduction
• History of the SADC DMC
• Role of the SADC DMC
• Tools / Products
• Climate monitoring
• Climate Prediction
• Attachments/ Capacity building
• Climate Outlook Fora, brief
• Challenges Opportunities
• Planned activities
• Summary

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• INTRODUCTION
• The Drought Monitoring Centre (DMC) is an
  institution of Southern African Development
  Community (SADC) comprising 14 member states with
  well over 220 million inhabitants.
• The SADC countries experience recurrent climatic
  extremes such as droughts, floods, tropical
  cyclones, which often result in negative impacts
  such as land degradation
• The region is also susceptible to epidemiological
  diseases such as malaria and cholera that are
  influenced by climatic factors.
• Extreme climate variation impact negatively
  socio-economic development of the Member States.

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• HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
• Established in 1989/90 together with now ICPAC
  by African Gvts with WMO as Executing Agency.
  Together responsible for 22 countries of Eastern
  and Southern Africa
• Central objective to have regional approaches in
  mitigating adverse climate impacts to
  socioeconomic developments.
• Initial funding from UNDP
• Next funding from the Belgian Government, with a
  condition that SADC gradually takes over the
  funding of DMC Harare.
• Since April 2002, core activities are funded by
  SADC.
• However, programme activities are still being
  funded by cooperating partnersWMO, USAID, NOAA
  and others.

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• ROLE OF THE SADC DMC
• 1) OBJECTIVE
• To contribute to mitigation of adverse
  impacts of extreme climate variations on
  sustainable socioeconomic development.
• This is achieved through the monitoring of near
  real-time climatic trends and generating
  medium-range (10-14 days) and long-range climate
  outlook products on monthly and seasonal (3-6
  months) timescales.
• These products are disseminated in timely manner
  to the communities of the sub-region principally
  through the NMHSs, regional organizations, and
  also directly through email services to various
  users who include media agencies. Our products
  are readily available on our website http//
  www.dmc.co.zw, e.mail address is
  dmcgen_at_dmc.co.zw

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• The provision of early warning for the
  formulation of appropriate strategies to combat
  the adverse effects of climate extremes affords
  greater opportunity to decision-makers for
  development of prudent plans for mitigating the
  negative impacts on sustainable socio-economic
  development.
• Since, establishment, the center has played an
  important and central role in providing the
  sub-region with weather and climate advisories
  and more importantly, timely early warning on
  drought, floods and other extreme climate events

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• 2. OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES
• Developing and archiving of global, regional and
  national quality controlled climate databanks
• Providing of climate monitoring, prediction and
  application services,
• Conducting training and capacity building
  activities in the generation and application of
  climate products
• Organizing the climate and malaria outlook forums
  for the SADC region, and
• Enhancing the interactions with the user through
  regional users workshops and application pilot
  projects.

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CLIMATE INFORMATION

• Climate variability
• The basic driving mechanism of steady-state
  climate solar radiation and the rotation of the
  earth
• The circulation patterns of the atmosphere in
  southern Africa
• Important for application in socio-economic
  sectors extremes in climate states often lead
  to the dislocation of socio-economic
  developments. Droughts/floods have wreaked havoc
  in the region from time to time.
• Climate Change
• The impacts of industrialization on climate
  system
• Important for application in socio-economic
  sectors

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EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION

• Southern African region socioeconomic development
  is influenced by climate variability.
• The El Niño/southern Oscillation phenomenon has
  impacts on the region
• Trends in global climate change have implications
  in the region

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Impacts of ENSO phases in SADC

• Droughts /Floods
• Unprecedented crop failures
• Decimation of livestock
• Virtual collapse of industries since both water
  shortage and hydropower failures are frequently
  likely
• Incidences of epidemiological diseases
• Mass destruction of infrastructures roads
  bridges houses, etc
• Widespread suffering with loss of livestock and
  crops

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SADC DMC TOOLS The SADC DMC uses several tools to
realize its objective and they are listed below
A
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30 Year Mean OND and JFM rainfall
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Composite El Nino SST mean (top)
anomalies(bottom)
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Composite La Nina SST mean (top)
anomalies(bottom)
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B
Pacific Basin SST (IRI)
C
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Selected Atmospheric Patterns Zonal wind Indian
/ Atlantic (IRI)
D
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PRODUCTS
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RAINFALL PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS

• Significant rainfall deficits across the southern
  half of the SADC region .
• Countries mostly affected BY deficits were
  Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, southern half of
  Mozambique and South Africa .

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October 2004 Dekadal cumulative rainfall
Trend Most area had little rainfall. Country
with the highest rainfall over this period
(gt150mm) DRC  October circulation feature(s)
ITCZ to the north, middle level high-pressure
dominating southern parts.
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November 2004 Dekadal cumulative rainfall
Trend First dekad was quite dry. Northern half
had some decent rains. Areas with the highest
rainfall over this period(gt150mm) Northern
Malawi Seychelles Southern Tanzania. Most of
southern half experienced little rain. November
circulation feature(s) Depression over
Mozambique Channel and ITCZ active over the
northern parts.
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December 2004 Dekadal cumulative rainfall
Trend Most areas had widespread rainfall, the
swestern sector had little rainfall. Countries
with the highest rainfall over this
period(gt90mm) DRC, Seychelles, Zambia, Zimbabwe
Malawi.  December circulation feature(s)
Depressions over Mozambique Channel, ITCZ over
the North and central part and middle level
high-pressure system over the south/southwest.
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OND TOTALS
Overall, most of the SADC region experienced
largely normal rains during the OND 2004.
However, parts of the southern sections, the bulk
of central South Africa, had well below-normal
rainfall, less than 65. Greater than 125 was
observed over Malawi, Northern Mozambique,
northeastern coast of Tanzania.
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Cumulative rains during OND 2004 for selected
stations in the SADC

Rainfall was well below normal from October to
December for Bulawayo in Zimbabwe, Maun in
Botswana, Queensland in South Africa.
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Parts of Malawi and north Mozambique had rains
picking up sharply in Dec 2004
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Rainfall was well below normal from October to
December in DRC Tanzania also.
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CLIMATE PREDICTION

• Prediction of future state of Atmosphere
• Understanding the physics of the atmosphere
• Using computer models (high power)
• Important for application in socio-economic
  sectors
• Basic approaches
• Analogue, Statistical and Dynamical

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Prediction

• What do we need to know to make a good prediction?

the current state (initial conditions)
how the current state will evolve
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Uncertainty in How the Current State will Evolve

• El Niño Normal
  La Niña

Boreal winter Boreal spring
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Uncertainty in How the Current State will Evolve

• Sea surface temperatures in the global oceans
  (but primarily in the tropics) can affect the
  overlying atmosphere by warming or cooling the
  air and affecting the amount of atmospheric
  moisture. Since these sea temperatures change
  fairly slowly, and can themselves be predicted,
  an influence on the atmosphere can be anticipated
  up to a few months in advance.

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Communicating Uncertainty
Uncertainty is indicated by the probability that
rainfall will be within a specified range.
Uncertainty is high when the probability is high
and the range is narrow.
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HOMOGENOUS REGIONS FOR OND OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA
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Graph of Observed and Forecasted for the region 1
DJF SEASON
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SADC SEASONAL FORECAST OUTLOOK DJF 2006-2007
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MAP1 Probabilities of Wet
DJF 2005/06 Rainfall For Malaria Outlook
REGIONS I,VII IX HAS HIGH GE OF EXCEEDING
75NTILE
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DJF 2005/06 Rainfall Malaria Outlook
REGIONS II-VI VIII HAVE HIGH PROB OF DRY
INCIDENCES
MAP2 Probabilities of Dry
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OND 2005 OBSERVED RAINFALL vs
OUTLOOK
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OND 2005 VERIFICATION
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JFM 2006 OBSERVED RAINFALL vs
OUTLOOK
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JFM 2006 OUTLOOK VERIFICATION
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• ATTACHMENT PROGRAMME
• The DMC has over the years hosted many scientists
  from mostly the subregion. It has also
  facilitated secondment of scientists to other
  global centres. Typically the scientists are
  hosted for a period of six months at a time at
  the DMC.
• Training SADC National Meteorological and
  Hydrological Services' (NMHSs) staff on
  attachment at the DMC through guidance in
  conducting research in climate monitoring and
  prediction techniques.
• After undergoing the training, scientists in
  prediction and producing climate bulletins, they
  return to their countries to share their new
  skills with other colleagues.

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• 3. CAPACITY BUILDING
• In addition to training SADC (NMHSs) staff on
  attachment DMC with assistance from other
  scientists, develop climate monitoring and
  prediction techniques for developing Southern
  Africa Region Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF)
  products.
• Providing training to SADC NMHSs staff through
  capacity 1-2 week building workshops and SARCOF.
• Strengthening links with users from sectors such
  as health, food security (early warning
  systems), water resources management, media,
  tourism industry, etc.

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• The aim of the pre-SARCOF capacity building
  workshops is to enhance the capacity of the NMHSs
  in generating climate outlook products at
  national level.
• User workshops (e.g. media and water-resources)
  have been incorporated into the process so as to
  enhance the effective dissemination and
  application of climate monitoring and prediction
  information, and to create good working relations
  between the climate scientists and the various
  weather-sensitive sectors.
• Since August 1999, the SADC DMC has organized 9
  pre-SARCOF capacity building workshops, including
  two media water resources and livestock
  workshops.
• In each workshop, inadequacies in the forecasting
  system are identified from previous experiences
  and attempts are made to address already
  recognised weaknesses.

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• 4. CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUMS
• The SADC DMC has organized nine Southern Africa
  Climate Outlook forums (SARCOF),
• To provide a consensus seasonal climate outlook
  form for the SADC region.
• Create a platform for interaction between the
  users and the climate scientists to enhance the
  application of meteorology to the reduction of
  climate related risks to food security, water
  resources and health for sustainable
  socio-economic development in the SADC region

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The SARCOF Process

CAPACITY BUILDING WORKSHOP
CONSENSUS MEETING
In Addition
User (e.g. Media, Health, Agric, Water and
Disaster) Workshops
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Verification of SARCOF

• The SARCOF9 Consensus Climate Outlook for the
  October to December 2005 had a hit rate of 48
  and Heidke Hit Skill Score of 22 . For January
  to March 2006 season had a hit rate of 69 and
  Heidke Hit Skill Score of 54.
• A good model evaluated over a period of more than
  ten years has a Heidke Hit Skill Score of 20.0
• The SARCOF9 Consensus Climate Outlook therefore
  was useful as its skill scores were within the
  skill score ranges of a good model.

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• This will immensely benefit users of climate
  services in the subregion, i.e. individuals and
  institutions from both public and private
  sectors.

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• CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
• Inadequate infrastructure and
  appropriate capacity (human and equipment),
• Lack of coordination and communication
  between meteorologists and various users group,
• Limited communication opportunities
  between countries, and
• Unavailability of advanced
  technologies.

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Challenges and Opportunities

• Climate Monitoring and Prediction
• Consultation with end users
• Improved delivery systems
• Training in the use of information
• Incorporating user feedback

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Challenges and Opportunities

• Climate Monitoring and Prediction
• Improved Seasonal Climate Forecasts
• Increased reliability
• Spatial scale
• Temporal scale

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• PLANNED ACTIVITIES
• The DMC will continue to build on the successes
  it made in climate analysis and prediction, and
  strive to improve areas of its weakness.
• It will empower regional experts involved in
  climate diagnosis and prediction through
  on-the-job training, workshops and secondment of
  these experts to advanced climate centres
  overseas.
• This will result in, among other things
• research focused on long-lead seasonal climate
  predictability in order to systematically produce
  useful forecasts and
• effective use of these experimental forecasts by
  scientists from participating countries in order
  to meet their particular social and economic
  needs.

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SUMMARY
Climate extremes have profound impacts in SADC
DMC has contributed to the understanding of these
extreme variations in SADC through consistent
climate monitoring. DMC generates and
disseminates important prediction products. These
products are important in providing early warning
for mitigation of adverse impacts of extremes in
weather and climate. There are still challenges
inadequate resources. DMC have contributed to
building capacity in SADC for climate prediction
and applications through Climate outlook Forums.
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!!