In the Name of God Most Beneficent, The Merciful

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In the Name of God Most Beneficent,The
Merciful

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Climate Change Over Africa

• Alexandria May 2005

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LONG TERM SOLAR FORCING ON AFRICA

• Shahinaz Yousef
• AstronomyMeteorology Dept.
• Faculty of Sciences
• Cairo University
• email
• shahinazyousef_at_yahoo.com

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Objectives

• 1- The 80 -120 years Solar Wolf-Gleissberg
  cycles
• 2-Expected drop of solar irradiance, UV, IR,
  Radio flux)
• 3-Effects on Ionosphere
• 4-Effect on precipitation ,lakes and closed seas
  levels
• 5.Expected cooling of the Earth (air and sea
  surface temperatures
• 6- Effect on El Nino and La Nina and NAO
• 7. Biological Effects on Fishery
• And Locust outbreaks and Migration

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Strategy

• 1- The 80 -120 years Solar Wolf-Gleissberg
  cycles
• 2- Determine historical effects on the earth
• 3-predict solar activity
• 4-extrapolate the solar terrestrial relations and
  reflect them into the future

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sunspots
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Types of Solar Cycles
Maunder Minimum Type
Normal cycles
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Weak cycles
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Wolf-Gleissberg Cycles (80-120) years

• On smoothing time series of sunspot number you
  get the Wolf-Gleissberg cycles(This fig includes
  prediction)

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CHARETERISTICS OF WOLF-GLEISSBERG CYCLES (Minimum
Maximum Years)
Cycle 23 is weak
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THE OCCURENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGES AT THE TURNING
POINTS OF WOLF -GLEISSBERG CYCLES
1997
1877-78
1784
1959
1981
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Solar induced climate changes occur at maximum
turning points, at start and end of weak solar
cycles around 1800,1900,2000. Note that 1997 is a
climate change year with start of weak solar
cycle 23.
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The solar equatorial rotation rate in degrees per
day change in solar rotation is an indicator
that the deeper levels of convection are varying
,hence there is a variation in solar irradiance
Cycle 20 is weak
Weak solar cycles coincide with faster solar
rotation leading to drop in solar irradiance.
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Solar Maximum,slowing equatorial rotation is
expected for a brighter sun
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CHARACTERISTICS OF THE STATE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY
DURING WEAK CYCLES

• Drop of solar irradiance
• Drop in the number and importance of solar flares
• Drop of coronal temperature and coronal magnetic
  loops
• Drop in the flux of solar gamma rays, X-rays,
  UV , IR and radio waves.
• Drop in the number of coronal mass ejections
• Drop in solar wind flux and velocities
• Drop in the strength of interplanetary magnetic
  field
• Increased invasion of cosmic rays to the earth
  thus increased cloud cover

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And We made the temperature far away from the
lamp (the sun)variable 13
Al Nabaa The holy Quran
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X-ray View of The Solar Cycle
1-Dramatic changes in the solar corona are
revealed in this four-year montage from the soft
x-ray telescope SXT aboard Yokkoh. The 12 images
are spaced at 120 intervals from AUG 1991 AT
Maximum phase of the 11 year cycle(left), to late
1995 near the minimum phase(right). The bright
glow of X-rays near maximum comes from very hot
corona, million degree coronal gases that are
confined within powerful magnetic fields anchored
in sunspots. 2-Near the cycle minimum, the active
regions associated with sunspots have almost
disappeared, and there is an overall decrease in
X-ray brightness by 100 times. 3- The UV emission
doubles from activity minimum to maximum.
25 4-At activity minimum, , the
corona still stays hot when active regions go
away, the million degree gas is just a lot more
rarified .
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SOLAR IRRADIANCE DROP
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Percentage Change of Solar Irradiance and the
corresponding change of global mean temperature
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Global Cooling

• Drop in Land air temperature
• Drop in sea surface temperature
• Advance of glaciation
• Delayed rise in sea level
• Decrease in agricultural productivity

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Drop in Land Air Temperature
A. Air surface temperatures from Edinburgh,
Wakefield ,and Greenwich in Great Britain shown
with Wolf sunspot Numbers. Temperature appear to
be out of phase with solar activity from 1880 to
1930, but in phase for other years. ( Adapted
from Hoyt and Schatten 1997 and references
therein)
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B.Temperature anomalies in Soria, a small town in
Spain. Adapted from Donaire (2000) Bulletin of
the Egyptian Geographical Society, 73, 127-144.

• Notice global warming prior cooling
• 5C drop in 1878
• recovery around 1900

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C.seasonal fluctuations of Temperature for
AlgeriaAesawy , A.M.and Hasanean, H.M.
1998Theor. Appl. Climatol. 61, 55-68.
Notice 1. Three Cyclic variation of temperature
followed by 2. Cooling 3. Rise of temperature
with maximum of Wolf-Gleissberg cycle followed by
drop of temperature.
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Global Cooling

• sea surface temperature

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Global Surface Temperature and Sunspot Cycle
Length
Variations in the air temperature over land in
the northern hemisphere (solid line) closely fit
changes in the length of the sunspot
number(dashed line). Shorter sunspot cycles are
associated with increased temperatures and more
intense solar activity . this suggests that solar
activity is at least partly responsible for the
rise in global temperature over the last century,
and that the sun can substantially moderate
global warming brought about by human increases
of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere.
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Global Cooling

• Delayed rise in sea level
• The drop in both air and sea surface temperature
  will work against the melting of snow in the
  poles, causing no sea level rise.

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Global Cooling Effect on Agriculture

• is estimated that a one degree drop in European
  temperature will lead to a drop of the number of
  people sustained by one hectare from three
  individuals to two and to the possibilities that
  one fifth of the world population will be
  subjected to hunger(extracted from Abu El Ezz
  (1980) short translation of CIA book " The
  Weather Conspiracy the coming of the new ice
  age")
• In 1878 cooling in Ireland caused damage to
  Potatoes crops and lead to the immigration of
  many to USA
• Cooling in say Egypt may increase the production
  of wheat.

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Recomendation

• It is advisable to study the effect of global
  cooling on various crops at different locations
  on Earth. We may have to cultivate those crops
  that need warmth at lower latitudes

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Wolf-Gleissberg Cycle (WGc) Forcing on Sea
Surface Temperature ? and El Nino Frequency
Global average sea surface temperature from Reids
model and the observed time series (cited in
Roederer (1995). Lower curve is El Nino
frequency and sunspot numbers (relative numbers
(showing the Wolf-Gleissberg cycles), Anderson
(1990) cited in Sharp (1992) .Notice 1. Coherence
between WGcs and Sea Surface temperature. 2.
Coherence between the first WGC on the left
following the little ice age and El Nino
frequency 3. Anti-coherence between WGcs and El
Nino Frequency. a. during little ice age b.
since weak cycles start around 1800. 4. We should
expect increased El Nino frequency since
1997. 5. Since there is increased El Nino during
weak cycles and since the SST deacrease ,then we
should also expect increase La Nina since 1997
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Nile Floods, Weak Sunspot Cycles and El Nino-La
Nina Predictions
1990 2000
2010 2020 2040
La Nina
El Nino

• Solid line represents Nile hydrograph during the
  last weak cycles series. Dashed line represent
  the weak solar cycles Note
• 1. Occurrence of drought year at minimum of weak
  solar cycle (due to El Nino) followed by
  excessive high flood the following year (due to
  La Nina). 1997 strong El Nino and 1998 La Nina
  were forecasted more than a year and half ahead
  (Yousef 1995,96).
• 2. El Nino are forecasted for 2008,(2009) 2010 to
  2015 (7 years) of La Nina, El Nino 2020,2032
  2-3 yr.

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Sun-Nile
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The solar wind
1- The interplanetary space is full of the solar
wind, previously inferred from comets tails.
2-The solar wind moves at supersonic speeds near
Earth.
3-There are two types of solar wind
fast slow 4-The fast wind is always there ,
lasting for years without substantial changes in
composition,speed or temperature. 5-Charged
particles in the solar wind drags the Suns
magnetic field with them with its roots below
photosphere. The solar rotation bends the field
into spiral shape.
SPIRAL PATHS OF INTEROLANETARY ELECTRONS
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Long Range Interplanetary Magnetic Field

• Note Increased IMF During Cycles 19,21 and 22.
• Note Drop of IMF During the Maunder Minimum and
  Weak Cycles around 18001900 and Cycles 20 and 23
• expected drop of IMF during the coming next few
  cycles

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5- Drop in solar wind , Be 10 and increased
invasion of galactic cosmic rays, C 14 . More
Global cloud cover Shorter comets tails, comets
first seen closer to sun
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UV DROP

• Effect On Ionosphere
• Effect on Ozone hole

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5- Drops in Solar irradiance, UV and X-rays,I.R
lean ( 2000)Notice drop of solar irradiance at
all wavelengths during minimum of Wolf-Gleissberg
cycles at the weak cycles period.
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Varying solar heating of the earth's upper
atmosphere
During the sun's 11-year activity cycle, the
upper atmosphere temperature fluctuate by factors
of 2 and neutral and electron densities by
factors of ten. The bold lines register maximum
values and the less bold the minimum values.
Enhanced magnetic activity on the sun produces
increases ultra violet and X-ray radiation that
heats the earth's upper atmosphere and cause it
to expand resulting in higher temperature and
greater densities at a given altitude in our
atmosphere.

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Ozone Hole
AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (algae)
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Ozone Hole Consequences
The Southern Ocean is one of the world's most
productive marine ecosystems, home to huge
numbers of penguins, seals, and bottom plants,
and a major supplier of nutrients carried to
other parts of the world by undersea currents.
Little is known about the effect of UV-B on
marine life, particularly the microscopic algae
called phytoplankton that form the foundation of
the undersea food chain. These tiny plants
capture the sun's energy through photosynthesis,
providing food for microscopic animals. 
phytoplankton images
They are eaten by krill, which sustain the
Antarctic's abundant seals, penguins, and baleen
whales.
Antarctic Krill
Less phytoplankton means less food for these
animals to eat
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Proposed Schematic Presentation of Ozone Hole
Closure
AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (algae)
1.Reduced UV owing to weak solar cycles will
revive the phytoplankton 2.10 increase in
phytoplankton reduce the amount of CO2 in the
atmosphere by 5 billion tons man made CO2 fossil
fuel production
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Effect of Wolf-Gleissberg Cycles on Nile Floods
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Effect of Wolf Gleisssberg cycles on
Precipitation and long range forecast of
drought-flood hazards
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And We have made the temperature far away from
the lamp (the sun)variable (13) And We have
Descended from cyclones pouring water (14)
Al
Nabaa The holy Quran
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Smoothed Precipitation Cycles El Sahel
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Smoothed Precipitation Cycles
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Solar Forcing onGreat American Equatorial
African Lakes
Fig a Time Series of lake Erie showing the
cyclic level variations in sympathy with solar
cycles 15 and 16 prior 1930s. b, The annual
discharge of the White Nile at Malakal showing
the cyclic rise and fall in sympathy with solar
cycle 15. Note also the sudden rise in the early
1960s following the maximum of Wolf-Gleissberg
cycle.
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• Fig 6 a Time Series of lake Erie showing the
  cyclic level variations in sympathy with solar
  cycles 15 and 16 prior 1930s.
• b, The annual discharge of the White Nile at
  Malakal showing the cyclic rise and fall in
  sympathy with solar cycle 15. Note also the
  sudden rise in the early 1960s following the
  maximum of Wolf-Gleissberg cycle.
• The 1960s solar induced climate change
• Forced both of the Equatorial African Lakes and
  the American Great Lakes to rise.
• Coherent forcing on lakes level
• The first weak cycle of the series (cycle 12)
  caused abrupt rise of lake Victoria level, cycles
  13 to 15 forced the Equatorial lakes levels to
  rise and fall coherently ( Fig 6c). On the other
  hand, cycles 14 to 16 forced Lake Erie to rise
  and fall in sympathy (Fig 6a).
• FORCAST Lake Victoria is expected to experience
  cyclic rises and falls with the weak cycles 24
  to 26. Lake Erie is to show this effect with
  cycles 25 to 27.

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Solar Forcing on Equatorial African Lakes for the
next few decades of weak solar cycles
Cycle 23
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Lake Victoria
1960 solar induced Climate Change
Cyclic variation of lake level
1922 cease of solar forcing on Equatorial Lakes
levels
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B-Change in general wind circulation.

• The 1960s sudden variation of lakes levels either
  positive or negative indicated climate
  fluctuation due to solar forcing. According to
  Lamb (1966), Such sudden changes as that around
  1961, are rare and may imply the passing of some
  critical threshold value of something affecting
  the total energy of the circulation. The large
  scale circulation of the atmosphere during the
  1960s has produced current that had never been
  seen in the 20th century before then, but which
  seem to represent a recurrence of a regime that
  prevailed over long periods of years before the
  1900-39 epoch of strong circulation , and were
  especially prevalent in the eighteenth and early
  nineteenth centuries and around 1880. The decline
  of temperate zone westerlies and increased
  frequency of blocking in high latitudes have been
  associated with anomalies (or changes) of
  temperature and rainfall regime that are having
  serious effects in many parts of the world.

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Seasonal oscillations of water level in Lake
Victoria. The maximum change in level
(1896-1934) was one month earlier than the
(1900-1970),(after Shahin 1985).
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Shrinkage of Lake Chad
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Time Series of Lake Chad
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Time Series of Lake Chad
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Time Series of Lake Chad
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Fig2 Map showing the main four rivers flowing in
El Sahel. Isohyetes
are also shown(after Faure
and Gac 1981 and references therein).
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Fig 6 The Maunder Butterfly diagram of sunspots
and the associated 22 and 11yr. cycle(after
Chernosky 1966). Notice the weak intermediate
sunspot cycles number 12,13 and 14. Cycle 19 is
the maximum of all cycles since start of
observation. Notice that the latitudinal
distribution of sunspots of cycle 19(10 yr
durarion).) is quite different from previous
cycles as the spot appear at much lower latitude
than usual. In addition the length of cycles 18
and 19 is 10 yr. each while the length of cycles
17 and 20 is 12 years.
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Solar Forcing on Pressure

• NAO
• ENSO

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A- North Atlantic ?Oscillations
low pressure over Iceland - High pressure over
Iceland
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The pattern of NAO can be interpreted in terms of
solar forcings
a- 1880-1900, with the start of the first two
weak solar cycles in the series of faster
rotational rate, the smoothed NAO index alternate
signs. b- A switch to positive NAO index
happened for the next three weak cycles of the
series as seen in Fig 4. The spin rate of the sun
slowed down during those cycles as seen in Fig
3. c- With the strong first peak of Wolf
Gleissberg cycle, and the following weak cycle
number 20, the NAO index was highly negative.,
induced the climate change of the 1960s and
changed the general wind circulation. d- A
change of NAO from -ve to ve occurred in the
1980s , again with a slowing down of solar
rotation rate at the secondary maximum of
wolf-Gleisssberg cycle. e-In 1997, the NAO was
switched from ve to -ve. and back to ve. in
1999 confirming that 1997 is a climate change
year.
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• NAO

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21 January 2005 Aurora Norway
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Recent Mud showing annual banding , Lake of
Zurich
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Comparison of recurrence of droughts in different
places with relevance to intermediate drops
between Wolf-Gleissberg cycles
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SOME IMPLICATIONS OF ENTERING A PERIOD OF WEAK
SOLAR CYCLES
1- Sudden rise of lake Victoria level and other
equatorial lakes
2-Drop in Land air temperature
3-Drop in sea surface temperature
4- Delayed sea level rise
5- Drop in Solar irradiance, UV and X-rays,solar
wind and increased invasion of galactic cosmic
rays, shorter comets tails,comets first seen
closer to sun.
6- A chance of recovery of Ozone hole
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7- increased frequencies of El Nios, hurricanes
and wide spread flood-drought hazards
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?End of Solar Forcing of weak solar cycles on the
Earth
1- End or reverse correlation with sunspot
number 2- Occurrence of deluges at some places
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Evidences that 1997 is a solar induced climate
change
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A- North Atlantic ?Oscillations
low pressure over Iceland - High pressure over
Iceland
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Lake Victoria 1997 solar induced climate change
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1997 Solar Induced Climate Change
Fig 6d The 1997 climate change induced 1.55 m
sudden rise in Lake Victoria level. with the
start of solar cycle 23. Cycle 23 is the first of
weak cycles series. Earlier similar rise occurred
in 1878 with the start of solar cycle 12 which
was first of the previous weak solar cycles
series.
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Lake Chad Rise
La Nina
El Nino
La Nina
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1997 Rise In Mediterranean Sea Level
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Aral Sea Shrinkage
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Solar Forcing on Dead Sea. Aral And Caspian Seas
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Effect of Wolf-_ Gleissberg Cycles WGcs(Top) On
Fishery
A.on Herring catches in the North Sea 1.
Controle of WDcs on fish number. Individual 11
years cycles are also evident in the number of
catches as if the fish draw a computer figure of
WGcs. 2following the 1957-59 maximum,Herring
disappeared from North Sea and climate change
happened
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B.The Sardine Catches CaseOn Global basis (also
east Mediterranean sea ), Sardine disappeared
with the first maximum of Wolf-Gleissberg cycle
and the following 1960s climate change but
multiplied greatly, particulary the Chlean and
California Sardine, with the second maximum of
the WGc in the 1980s
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The Route Of Locust Invading Libya From
South-West
Libya
5 October 2004
22 October 2004
29 September 2004
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The Invasion of Locust to Egypt
22 Nov 2004
18 Nov 2004
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8 Nov
12 Nov
10 Nov
14 Nov
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Peace Be On You
Flooding of El Kabaa Al Musharafa in 1924 due to
solar induced climate change with the end of weak
cycles series Flash floods Over Mecca 25 January
2005 at the start of weak cycle series, due to
excessive high energy protons and electrons
entering the poles inducing heat into the polar
air, thus expanding it and making the Siberian
high very strong
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800 years cross correlation between White and
Blue Niles