Biological invasions and the Millennium Assessment:

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Biological invasions and the Millennium
Assessment bioeconomic analysis uncertainty
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200 Cichlid Extinctions
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Unionid Extirpation
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Sea Lamprey Damage
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Cumulative number of invasions
Year
Ricciardi (in review)
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• Relevance
• Major cause of biodiversity loss
• Physical and chemical changes
• Industrial impacts
• Aesthetics
• Property values
• Invasive species cost estimated 137 Billion
  US/yr (Pimentel et al. 1999)

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Beneficial Introduced Species
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Bioeconomics
Ecology
Objective
Source Location of Species
Costs
Transport/Survival in Pathway
Maximize Societal Welfare
Establishment
Abundance??Spread
Benefits
Impact
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Bioeconomics
Ecology
Economics
Objective
Source Location of Species
Transport / Introductions
Prevention
Costs
Transport/Survival in Pathway
Control
Maximize Societal Welfare
Value Added Investment
Establishment
Abundance??Spread
Production
Benefits
Non-market Values
Impact
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25 yr horizon
5 yr horizon
Welfare
Cost
Cost
Time
Leung et al. 2002
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• Bioeconomics
• Explicitly incorporate interactions between
  society, management ecology
• Incorporate time scale, GDP, and biological
  responses
• Integrate non-market components
• Challenges
• Sparse data
• High uncertainty (ecology, economic valuation)
• Timely, but appropriate responses

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Uncertainty3 invasions, 100 lakes examined
p0.03?
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Effect of New Research
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• Research Directions
• Flexible frameworks for decision making
• Ecological forecasting with realistically
  limited data
• Integration and evaluation of uncertainty and
  learning on decisions