A%20Review%20on%20the%20Influence%20of%20Solar%20Variability%20upon%20the%20Climate

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A Review onthe Influence of Solar Variability
upon the Climate

• Shigeo Yoden
• Dept. of Geophysics, Kyoto Univ.

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0. Recent research trends

• T. Nagasima (NIES, Japan) report on IUGG2003
• JSA02 External forcing on the middle atmosphere
  and ionosphere
• JSA08 Effects of solar variability on climate
  change
• JSM05 Solar effects in the middle atmosphere
  and ionosphere
• MI01 Variation of the solar energy output and
  its influence on
• climate
• Recent motivations to study the solar
  activity-climate relationship
• in the past prejudice due to the accuracy in
  observations
• accumulation of high-quality data mostly from
  satellite obs.
• increase of interest on global climate change
• anthropogenic effects, solar effects, volcanic
  effects, ...
• increased ability of climate modeling computer
  resources

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1. What kinds of solar variability are there?

• T. Nagasima (2003) a
• (a) variations of the solar radiation
• 27-day cycle
• 11-year cycle
• longer time-scale fluctuations (e.g., Maunder
  minimum)
• direct effects on the radiative balance in the
  atmosphere
• temperature and ozone in the middle atmosphere
• amplification and downward influence through
  coupling with dynamical process ?
• temperature in the lower atmosphere and SST,
  particularly in cloud free areas ?

4

• (b) variations of the solar wind (high energy
  plasma)
• similar cycles with the variations of the solar
  radiation
• increased energetic electron precipitation (EEP)
• NOx generation in the mesosphere
• influence on NOx balance in the stratosphere or
  else ?
• (c) solar modulations of galactic cosmic ray
  (GCR) flux
• anti-correlation with the variations of the solar
  wind
• some purported correlations with total cloud
  cover
• Friis-Christensen and Lassen (1991 Science 254
  698-)
• and following papers
• influence on cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) ?
• Laut (2003 JASTP 65 801-) Solar activity and
  terrestrial climate an analysis of some
  purported corellations

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2. Variations of the solar irradiance

• Lean (1997 Annual Rev. Astron. Astrophys. 35
  33-)

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Lean (1991 Rev. Geophys. 29 505-)
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Estimated solar irradiance change in the UV part
during the 11-year solar cycle (Matthes et al.
2003 Papers in Met. And Geophys. 54 71-)
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3. Observed correlations with the solar variations

• Significant changes in the ionosphere associated
  with the 11-year cycle (Lean, 1997)
• b. critical frequency foF2, above which radio
  waves are lost because of no ionospheric
  reflection

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• Labitzke and van Loon (1999) The Stratosphere
• Time series of the solar activity (10.7 cm radio
  wave) and annual mean of the 30-hPa height at
  30N, 150W

30 hPa heights
3-yr running mean of heights Cor.0.75
Solar activity
10

• Correlation between
• the solar activity and
• annual mean 30-hPa
• heights (about 24 km)
• in the NH

Shaded area statistical significance exceeds
1 (confidence level 99)
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• Average temperature differences (oC) for
  two-months mean
• between two years in solar maxima and two
  years in solar
• minima in four solar cycles

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• Time series of the solar activity and
• the zonal-mean annual-mean 700 hPa temperature

30-hPa height (20N-40N) 700-hPa
temperature (20N-40N) Solar activity 3-yr
running means
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• Correlation between
• the solar activity and
• the TOMS total ozone
• (1978-1993)

Shaded area statistical significance exceeds 5
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Matthes et al. (2003) Observed annual mean
solar signal in temperature
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• Matthes et al. (2003 update of Kodera (1995))
  Observed monthly mean solar signal in mean
  zonal wind Max-Min NMC Data (1979-1998)

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• Marsh and Svensmark (2000)
• Low cloud properties influenced by cosmic rays
  Phys.Rev.Lett. 85 5004-
• global average of monthly cloud anomalies
• International Satellite Cloud Climate Project
  (ISCCP)
• July 1983 June 1994

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• Laut (2003)
• Solar activity and terrestrial climate an
  analysis of some purported correlations
  J.Atmos.Solar-Terr.Phys. 65 801-

Marsh and Svensmark (2000)
Updated by Kristjansson (2002)
Same as (b) but smoothed
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• White, Lean, Cayan, and Dettinger (1997)
• Response of global upper ocean temperature to
  changing solar irradiance JGR 102 3255

Bathythermograph Temperature data 30S--60N
area-veraged Global Ice and Sea Surface
Temperature data 40S--60N area-averaged Solar
irradiance anomalies reconstructed from
calculations of sunspot darkening (sunspot areas
and disk positions) 1874
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4. Numerical experiments with general
circulation models (GCMs)

• Shindell et al. (1999)
• Solar cycle variability, ozone, and climate
• Science 284 305-
• Differences of 30-hPa height in DJF between solar
  minimum and maximum in GISS GCM runs
• Interactive ozone code

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Matthes et al. (2003) SPARC/GRIPS Solar
Experiments Intercomparison Project
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Matthes et al. (2003)
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Matthes et al. (2003)
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Annual mean SW heating rate differences
K/day20-yr mean Max exp. Min.exp.(Matthes
et al., 2003)
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Annual mean temperature differences K20-yr
mean Max exp. Min.exp.(Matthes et al., 2003)
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Monthly mean zonal mean zonal wind differences
m/s20-yr mean Max exp. Min.exp. (Matthes
et al., 2003)
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• Kodera and Kuroda
• (2002)
• a possible mechanism of
• the downward influence
• by planetary wave
• mean zonal flow
• interaction

solar Max larger Ty and U smaller F
smaller v and w larger T in the
equatorial lower stratosphere
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Meehl et al. (2003) J. Climate 16 426-Solar
and GHG forcing and climate response in the 20th
century
NCAR PCM (CCM3LSMPOM) (a) Radiative forcing
from the coupled model for each
experiment (b) Global annual mean surface
air temperature - early century
solar - residual ( solarGHGsulfate
minus GHGsulfate) - late century
GHGsulfates
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Haigh (2003) The effects of solar variability
on the Earths climate
Phil.Trans.R.Soc.Lond.A 361 95-
Difference in zonal mean temperature between
solar max and min calculated using an AGCM in
which the spectral composition of the change in
irradiance was included in addition to
solar-induced changes in ozone S-T dynamical
interactions
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• Naito, Y., M. Taguchi and S. Yoden, 2003
• J.Atmos.Sci. 60 1380-
• Naito, Y. and S. Yoden, 2003
• IUGG2003 MC05
• Experiments on the QBO Effects on Coupled
  Variability with an MCM

• We impose a QBO forcing in the zonal
  momentum eq.

to assess the atmospheric response to small (or
finite) change in the external parameter UQBO by
a statistical method.
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10,800-day mean fields of zonal-mean zonal wind
m/s
75m/s
50m/s
55m/s
45m/s
45m/s
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Frequency distributions of zonal-mean
temperature Kat f86N, p 2.6hPa for 10,800
days
CTRL
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Statistical significanceof the QBO effectscan
be estimated witha large sample method
A standard normal variable
The probability that Z reaches 40.6 for two
samples of the same populations is quite small (
lt 10-27 ).
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5. Geological records on the variations of
solar activity and climate
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? Verschuren et al. (2000) Rainfall and
drought in equatorial east Africa During the past
1,100 years Nature 403 410
Comparison of the depth and salinity of Crescent
Island Crater (Lake Naivasha Kenya) with atmosphe
ric 14CO2 production (a proxy for solar
radiation) and the pre-colonial history of east
Africa
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? Bond et al. (2001) Persistent solar influence
on north Atlantic climate during the holocene
Science 294 2130
Comparison of 10Be and 14C records with time
series of a drift-ice record and stacked marine
records 1500-yr cycle
36
? Neff et al. (2001) Strong coherence between
solar variability and the monsoon in Oman between
9 and 6 kyr ago Nature 411 290-
37
? Burns et al. (2002) A 780-year annually
resolved record of Indian Ocean monsoon
precipitation from a speleothem from south Oman
JGR 107 ArtNo.4434
Comparison of d18O from stalagmite S3
(from Oman) with historical rainfall
data (from East Africa and southern Arabia)

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? Fleitmann et al. (2003) Holocene forcing of
the Indian monsoon recorded in a stalagmite from
Southern Oman Science 300 1737-
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6. Concluding remarks

• in the past prejudice due to
• the accuracy in observations
• limited number (area) of the data
• limited length of the data
• these days accumulation of high-quality data
  from
• High-tech observations and large ensemble mean
• globally covered satellite observations
• high-accuracy geological data

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• increase of interest on global climate change
• anthropogenic effects, solar effects, volcanic
  effects, ...
• detection of the response to small fluctuation of
  external forcing
• PDFs
• stochastic resonance (multiple stable states)
• advanced computer resources
• progress in the ability of climate modeling
• advanced processing of huge data
• new methods on the statistical significance test

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End of (important) slides. Slides hereafter are
extra.
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Statistical significanceof the QBO effectscan
be estimated witha large sample method.
Frequency distributions of zonal-mean temperature
K at f86N, p 449hPa for 10,800 days
A standard normal variable
W1.0
E1.0
The probability that Z reaches 40.6 for two
samples of the same populations is quite small (
lt 10-27 ).
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• Correlation between
• solar activity and
• two-month means of
• the 30-hPa heights
• on the NH
• (July 1957-June 1997)

Shaded area statistical significance exceeds
1 (confidence level 99)