Session organizers:

1
Physical and Ecological Responses of the Great
Lakes to Climate Change
Session organizers Nathaniel Ostrom
Department of Zoology and Biogeochemistry
Environmental Research Initiative, Michigan
State University Steve Colman Large Lakes
Observatory University of Minnesota-Duluth
Sponsors
2
The Great Lakes ecosystem a legacy of change, a
future of uncertainty
Nathaniel Ostrom Department of Zoology and
Biogeochemistry Environmental Research
Initiative, Michigan State University
3
Predicted Climate Trends in the Great Lakes
Environment Region will become warmer and
drier By 2100 Winters warmer by 3-7
oC Summers warmer by 3-11 oC
Kling, G.W., K. Hayhoe, L.B. Johnson, J.J.
Magnuson, S. Polasky, S.K. Robinson, B.J. Shuter,
M.M. Wander, D.J. Wuebbles, D.R. Zak, R.L.
Lindroth, S.C. Moser, and M.L. Wilson (2003).
Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes
Region Impacts on our Communities and
Ecosystems. Union of Concerned Scientists,
Cambridge, Massachusetts, and Ecological Society
of America, Washington, D.C.
4
Predicted Climate Trends in the Great Lakes
Environment Michigan summer will transition
to one more like an Arkansas summer
Migration of Climate Winter and Summer for
Michigan and Illinois
Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes
Region Impacts on our Communities and
Ecosystems. Union of Concerned Scientists,
5
Recent Changes/Threats to Great Lakes
Rising temp in Superior - approx. 1 oC/decade
Reductions in Ice Cover
MODIS Rapid Response Team, NASA/GSFC
http//www.d.umn.edu/jaustin/ICE.html
6
Recent Changes/Threats to Great Lakes
Falling Lake Levels Historical range in Superior
is 1.2 m Current drop of 1 m since
1985 Economic Impacts to Shipping
Transport through locks A 2 ft drop equates
to 6,000 tons of coal for a 1000 ft vessel
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and MN Sea Grant
7
Recent Changes/Threats to Great Lakes
Example of Ecosystem Change Lake St. Clair Up
to 1 m drop in lake level by 2050 22,000 ha
exposed (shown in green) 28 of 43 known fish
spawning sites lost (red dots) (Source
Scudder Mackey, ESPP conf 2007)
8
Predicted Climate Trends in the Great Lakes
Environment Impacts to Fishery reduction
in ice cover likely harmful to whitefish due to
reduced protection from winter storms cold
water fish likely to decline invasions of warm
water fish likely
Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes
Region Impacts on our Communities and
Ecosystems. Union of Concerned Scientists,
9
Predicted Climate Trends in the Great Lakes
Environment Changes to algal
productivity spring bloom will occur
earlier likely out of phase with zooplankton
and fish communities composition likely to
change from palatable diatoms to inedible
blue-green algae enhanced by zebra mussel
spread overall productivity expected to
increase
(http//www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/brochures/mcystisf
lyer/mcystis.html)
Diatom Aulocoseira sp.
http//info1.ma.slu.se/climate/Images/10Biology/Au
locoseira.jpg
Zebra mussel expelling Microcystisas pseudofeces.
(http//www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/brochures/mcystisf
lyer/mcystis.html)
10
Predicted Climate Trends in the Great Lakes
Environment Changes to algal productivity
Will productivity increase? Ex. Grand
Traverse Bay, Lake Metabolism Shift to
net autotrophy in warmer 2001
O2 sat
d18O
R/P
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Recent Changes/Threats to Great Lakes
Rising Nitrate in Superior and other Great
Lakes Causes are not clear Shift in N
cycling in coastal ecosystems shift in primary
production to blue-greens (N fixers) decrease
in deposition of labile organics decrease in
rates of denitrification Increase in nitrate
export Great Lakes? N fixers are
increasing Is this changing the N cycle?
Finlay et al 2007 Ecological Applications, 17(8),
2007, pp. 23232332
Lane N. NATURE Vol 449 18 October 2007 778-780
12
Are we prepared?
change may be inevitable. But it is not
inevitable for society to be surprised or
ill-prepared. Robert Gagosian, Director and
President, WHOI
13
NSF funding rates
Source NSF (2007) Impact of Proposal and Award
Management Mechanisms
14
Trend Toward Large Scale Monitoring
Networks The Long Term Ecological Research
(LTER) Network is a collaborative effort
involving more than 1800 scientists and students
investigating ecological processes over long
temporal and broad spatial scales
(www.lternet.edu) No Great Lakes stations
15
Trend Toward Large Scale Monitoring Networks
Lake Metabolism chosen as the central parameter
by the Global Lakes Ecological Observing Network
(GLEON) with funding by NSF - No Great Lakes
Stations
16
Integrated Ocean Observing System a system of
systems that routinely and continuously provides
quality controlled data and information on
current and future states of the oceans and Great
Lakes from the global scale of ocean basins to
local scales of coastal ecosystems
(http//www.ocean.us/) Does include the Great
Lakes Observing System
17
Integrated Ocean Observing System 97.7 million
contract recently awarded to an academic
partnership led by the Woods Hole Oceanographic
Institution (WHOI) to lead development of OOI to
an eventual level of 331 million Role of Great
Lakes in OOI not yet well delineated Recent
passage of HR 2342 by House of Representatives
clearly encompasses the Great Lakes
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Summary The Great Lakes Ecosystem is
changing quickly There is a strong need
for a cohesive program of funding and large
scale monitoring of ecosystem processes