ISFS Project Science Team Meeting

1
ISFS ProjectScience Team Meeting

• USGS Fort Collins Science Center
• Fort Collins, Colorado
• May 4-6, 2004

2
Outline

• Project Overview
• ISFS Overview
• STM4 Overview

3
Invasive SpeciesA Top Environmental Issue of the
21st Century

• Economic Costs
• 137 Billion / Yr
• (Pimentel, et al. 1999 NISRC Management Plan,
  2001)
• Environmental Costs
• Decreased biodiversity, ecological services, etc.
• Human-Health Costs
• West Nile Virus, Malaria, etc.
• Agricultural Costs
• Crop pathogens, hoof-and-mouth, mad cow disease

• Notorious examples include
• Dutch elm disease, chestnut blight, and purple
  loosestrife in the northeast kudzu, Brazilian
  peppertree, water hyacinth, nutria, and fire ants
  in the southeast zebra mussels, leafy spurge,
  and Asian long-horn beetles in the Midwest salt
  cedar, Russian olive, and Africanized bees in the
  southwest yellow star thistle, European wild
  oats, oak wilt disease, Asian clams, and white
  pine blister rust in California cheatgrass,
  various knapweeds and thistles in the Great
  Basin whirling disease of salmonids in the
  northwest hundreds of invasive species from
  microbes to mammals in Hawaii and the brown tree
  snake in Guam.
• As many as 50,000 now,hundreds new each year ...

4
Federal Government Response

• National Invasive Species Council (EO 13122 -
  1999)
• USGS has a lead role in dealing with invasive
  species science in natural and semi-natural areas

5
Project Overview

• NASA / USGS Invasive Species Partnership
• Launched approximately two years ago
• One of NASA ESEs Twelve National Application
  areas
• Activities involve
• USGS National Institute of Invasive Species
  Science
• NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
• Many others

6
Project Organization
Engineering Team
CommunicationsTeam
Science Team
Jeff Morisette Stohlgren, Smith, Pedelty, Reich,
Kalkhan, Crossier, Chong, Garnet, Griffith,
Madsen, Pinzon, and others
David Kendig Pollack, Ilagan, Graham, Newman,
Bruce, Clark, Graves, Memarsadeghi, Sachs, Ullah,
Tilmes, and others
Jim Closs Gutro, OCarroll, Banowetz, Wilson,
Graham, Newman, Ritrivi, and others
Neal Most Tom Stohlgren, Jim Smith, John Schnase
7
USGS Science / Client Needs

• On-demand, predictive landscape- and
  regional-scale models and maps for biological
  invasions
• Integrated access to tailored NBII / ESE data

8
USGS Predictive Modeling
Output GIS - Spatial Statistical Dynamic Models
and Maps
Trend Surface Analysis With Stepwise Multiple
Regression Using OLS, GLS, SAR, or Exhaustive
Regression
Input Variables (150) Remotely Sensed
data (ETM, SPOT, MTI, EO1, etc.) Derived Remote
Sensing (Vegetation Indices, PCA Tasseled Cap,
other) Biotic/Abiotic Data Topographic
Data Species Data Vegetation- Forest Data Soils
Characteristics Cryptobiotic Crusts Wildfire
Severity Biodiversity Air Pollution Geology,
Other Environmental Data
Hot spots of native biodiversity Distribution
of non-native species Potential spread
of invasive species. Barriers to rapid
invasions. Corridors that may accelerate
invasions. Economic and environmental risk
assessments, vulnerability of habitats to
invasion. Priorities for control and
containment.
Testing if There Is Spatial Auto-Correlation In
the Residuals
No
Final Trend Surface Map Large - Small Scale
Variability
Yes
Testing if Residuals Cross-Correlated with Other
Variables
Yes
Yes
No
Model Residuals Using Co-Kriging
Regression Trees Classifications
Model Residuals Using Kriging (Universal,
Ordinary, other)
9
Model Outputs
10
USGS Predictive Modeling
Output GIS - Spatial Statistical Dynamic Models
and Maps
Trend Surface Analysis With Stepwise Multiple
Regression Using OLS, GLS, SAR, or Exhaustive
Regression
Input Variables (150) Remotely Sensed
data (ETM, SPOT, MTI, EO1, etc.) Derived Remote
Sensing (Vegetation Indices, PCA Tasseled Cap,
other) Biotic/Abiotic Data Topographic
Data Species Data Vegetation- Forest Data Soils
Characteristics Cryptobiotic Crusts Wildfire
Severity Biodiversity Air Pollution Geology,
Other Environmental Data
DSSProducts
Analysis Modeling
Hot spots of native biodiversity Distribution
of non-native species Potential spread
of invasive species. Barriers to rapid
invasions. Corridors that may accelerate
invasions. Economic and environmental risk
assessments, vulnerability of habitats to
invasion. Priorities for control and
containment.
Testing if There Is Spatial Auto-Correlation In
the Residuals
No
Final Trend Surface Map Large - Small Scale
Variability
Yes
Testing if Residuals Cross-Correlated with Other
Variables
Yes
Yes
Data Ingest
No
Model Residuals Using Co-Kriging
Regression Trees Classifications
Model Residuals Using Kriging (Universal,
Ordinary, other)
11
Invasive Species Forecasting System
12
Invasive Species Forecasting System
13
Invasive Species Forecasting System

• OLS Regession Kriging
• Regression Tree Analysis
• GARP
• EcoNiche

• NIISS Tamarisk
• Phase 1 EOS
• NBII
• ESE

• T-Map

14
ISDS

• Phase 1
• Tamarisk data
• EOS data
• Phase 2
• Requirements extraction
• ECHO / UAH partnerships
• V1.0 rapid prototyping

15
ISAMS

• ISAMS V1.0 Release
• System
• Documentation
• Canonical datasets
• Next Steps
• Rocky / FireAnt build
• Refined ISAMS V1.x
• Adaptive kriging

16
Role-Based Access ControlNovice User Workflow
ISDS ?
ISAMS ?
1
2
3
5
6
7
4
ISAMS ?
ISDSS ?
8
9
10
17
Role-Based Access ControlIntermediate User
Workflow
ISDS ?
ISAMS ?
1
2
3
5
6
7
4
ISAMS ?
ISDSS ?
8
9
10
18
Role-Based Access ControlExpert User Workflow
ISDS ?
ISAMS ?
1
2
3
5
6
7
4
ISAMS ?
ISDSS ?
8
9
10
19
ISDSS

• T-Map Tamarisk Mapping Tool
• Others
• NB DSS a client-side capability

20
Timeline
2007
2008
2003
2004
2005
2006
Rocky
Parallel Algorithm Development
ISAMS V1.0, V2.0
Value-Added Data Products
ISDS V1.0 - Vx.x
BS/TX Plan
Benchmark
NIISS Business Development, Science Program,
ISFS Transition
21
STM4 Overview

• History
• Coordination ? Deliverables ? Project Review ?
  ???
• Goals
• Product / Document Release
• ISAMS v1.0, ISDS Data Assembly, ISDSS T-Map Tool
• Establish / Review Coordination Strategy
• Science Plan, Engineering Plan, Communications
  Plan
• Partnership Development / Fun

22
Agenda

• Tuesday, May 4th
• Engineering Team Report
• IS Analysis Modeling Service (ISAMS) V1.0
  Release
• IS Data Service (ISDS) Initial Activities
• IS Decision Support Service (ISDSS) T-Map Report
• Communications Team Report
• Partnership Reports

23
Agenda

• Wednesday, May 5th
• Science Team Report
• EOS / Value-Added MODIS Products
• IDS / Biological Fingerprinting
• IDS / Avian Bioenergetics Modeling
• Large-Scale Assessments
• NASA/USGS Strategic Planning
• Partnership Reports

24
Meeting Overview

• Thursday, May 6th
• Horseback / hiking ecological field trip into
  Rocky Mountain National Park study areas
• Discussions at lunch and throughout

25
Logistics

• Websites
• http//InvasiveSpecies.gsfc.nasa.gov
• http//kiowa.colostate.edu/cwis438/niiss/index.htm
  l
• Addresses / sign-up sheet
• Presentations / Papers
• Group pics

26
Logistics

• Email / telephones / restrooms
• Lunches
• Dinners
• Tuesday - Tres Margaritas
• Wednesday - On your own
• Thursday - Brats beer at Toms
• Ecological Field Trip
• Who / What / When / Wear

27
ISFS ProjectScience Team Meeting

• USGS Fort Collins Science Center
• Fort Collins, Colorado
• May 4-6, 2004