The Northern Forest Canoe Trail:

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The Northern Forest Canoe Trail
Economic Impacts and Implications for Sustainable
Community Development

• Noah Pollock

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Changing Economies
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Amenity-driven development
Advocacy platform -Gartner 1996
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The Northern Forest Canoe Trail

• 740 miles
• 45 towns

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Can the Northern Forest Canoe Trail be a tool for
sustainable community development?
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Objectives

• Assess economic impacts of paddler recreation
• Identify social and environmental impacts

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Energy flows in an ecosystem
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The Economic Base Model
Economic Engines
Economic Leakages
Local Economy

• Export earnings
• Expenditures by visitors
• Spending of new residents
• Retiree income

• Expenditures for imported goods and services

Adapted from Powers 1996
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Input-output modelling

• Inputs
• Expenditure data
• Visitation rates
• Regional multipliers

• Outputs
• Sales/output
• Income generated
• Jobs created

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Comparisons to other studies
Ontario Bruce Trail 29,000,000 725 jobs
Wisconsin Kickapoo River 1,750,000 43 Jobs
Adirondacks 6 access points 1.2-1.9,000,000 38
Jobs
North Carolina Coastal Plains 55,000,000 1375
jobs
Thigpen et al. 2000, Omohundro 2000, Anderson et
al. 1999, Schutt et al. 1999
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Study Regions
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Primary data

• Measurements
• Number of visitors
• Expenditures in local communities
• Identification of social and environmental impacts

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Research methodology

• Paddler surveys
• Campground, lodging surveys
• Outfitter and land manager interviews

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Paddler survey

• 1024 completed surveys
• 34 response rate at kiosks
• 100 response rate for non-respondent surveys

• Visitor demographics
• Trip characteristics
• Local expenditures
• Additional comments

• 17 registration kiosks
• In person observations
• Non-response surveys

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Campground and lodging surveys

• Visitation rates
• Impressions of the NFCT
• n37
• 77 response rate

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Outfitter and land manager interviews

• Surveyed 100 of area outfitters
• Impressions of NFCT
• Interviewed 15 land managers stewardship
  volunteers

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Estimating visitation rates
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Visitation rates calculations kiosks

• Total group days
• (?(R,u)dini)

(1/r)
(1/v(R,u))
(1/o(R))
R study region U user type i survey
element (each survey response) D number of days
in region n number of paddling trips to the
region in average season
r response rate
v percentage of responses that were valid
o percentage of season kiosks were operational
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Weighting

• Disproportionate sampling
• Weight Estimated groups /sampled groups
• Non-response weights

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Group composition
Average group four paddlers
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Home states
Median travel time 3.5 hours Majority paddling
in their home states
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Household Income

• Median income 65,000 - 79,000

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Time on water

• Average (median) six hours

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Trip lengths
Average trip length 3 days
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Visitor types
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Economic impacts

• 90,000 visitors
• 12 million in total output/sales
• 4.1 million in generated personal income
• 283 jobs
• 215 median per group-trip, local expenses
• 39 Average per person, per day expenses

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Comparison of paddler trip expenses
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Comparison of trip expenditures NFCT paddlers
Minnesotan snowmobilers
(Schneider 2005)
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Types of expenditures
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Expenditure locations Adirondacks
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Expenditure locations Missisquoi
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Expenditure locations NEK
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Expenditure locations Androscoggin
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Expenditure locations Rangeley Lake
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Expenditure locations Allagash Wilderness
Waterway
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NFCT knowledge and importance

• 17.7 indicated the NFCT was a reason for their
  trip

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Outfitters impressions of the NFCT

• Intrigued but ambivalent
• NFCT paddlers are lt1 of current customers

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Lodging establishment impressions

• Cautiously optimistic
• 50 of summer customers are paddlers
• Thru-paddlers are not ideal customers

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Economic impacts, by region
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Drivers of economic impacts
Quantity of visitors Types of visitors Trip
characteristics Community characteristics
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Total groups, by region
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Total groups, across studies
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Trip expenditures distribution
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Results of Tobit Regression
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Trip expenditures by visitor types
Visitor Types
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User types, by region
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Social impacts
Increased cultural and historical
appreciation Community sense of pride
Crowding of waterways Traffic and disturbance in
towns private lands Tourism dependence
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Environmental impacts
Increased environmental awareness Prioritized
land conservation
Land degradation at campsites Wildlife
disturbance Spread of invasive aquatic species
Increased development pressure
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Can the Northern Forest Canoe Trail stimulate
sustainable community development?
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Economic

• Paddlers modestly impact local economies
• Economic impacts vary from region to region
• The NFCT can increase economic impact by
• Bringing new paddlers to the region
• Affecting the balance of user types on the
  waterway
• Changing the trip patterns of current users

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Social and environmental

• Positive and negative impacts
• Proactive, integrated management
• Coordinated and focused development

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Challenges

• Self-supported paddling
• High summer occupancy rates
• The NFCTs length
• Managing social and environmental impacts

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Recommendations

• Expand camping and lodging opportunities
• Rustic shelters
• Guide initiatives
• Organized events
• Collaborative marketing
• Proactive planning
• Paddler education

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Thanks!
University of VermontLisa Chase, Clare Ginger,
Jane Kolindinsky, Kathleen Liang, William
ValliereEileen Horn, Donald Ager
Kate Williams Jennifer Lamphere, Northern
Forest Canoe TrailRick Fenton, N.Y. Department
of Environmental ConservationEileen Nunas,
Missisquoi National Wildlife RefugeRoss Stevens,
The Northwoods Stewardship CenterShelby Rouseau,
Rangeley Lake Heritage TrustAl Cooperwaithe,
North Maine WoodsDoug Pierson, Northern Waters
Canoe and Kayak SchoolRangeley Lake State Park,
VT Fish and Wildlife, and the VT Department of
Parks and Recreation
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Questions? Comments?
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Future research

• Popularity of paddling destinations
• Water Recreation Opportunity Spectrum
• 2nd homeowners and immigrants
• Longitudinal analysis
• Managing social and environmental impacts
• Peak oil, climate change, and tourism