Managing Risks and Changes

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Managing Risks and Changes
John Burke
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What Is Risk?
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A Definition of Risk
A future event (or series of events) with a
probability of occurrence and the potential for
impact that can be either positive or negative.
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Risk To What?
Health Safety Objectives Resources Reputation
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Emotional Perception of Risk
Personal involvement Personal interest
involved Third Party involvement A question of
consequence?
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Perception of Risk - Video
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An Over-Cautious Approach?
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Risk Identification
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Areas of Likely Risk

• Planned Activities
• Those who supply us
• Resources
• Interfaces
• The Organisational Environment
• The External Environment

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Dont Shoot the Messenger
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Ishikawa or Fishbone Diagrams
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When Planning for the Future

• Identify risks of doing
• Identify risks of NOT doing

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Risk Assessment
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Assessment of Risk

• Probability
• Impact
• Proximity

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Assessment of Risk
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Risk Response Planning
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Not Recommended
Ostrich approach -head in the sand
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Risk Response Options

• Risk Avoidance
• Risk Transference
• Risk Mitigation
• Risk Deferral
• Risk Acceptance

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Assessment of Risk
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Risk Response Actions

• What will you do?
• Who will be responsible?
• How will you know it is about to hit?
• What records will you keep?
• How will you guard against it for the
  future?

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Solve One, Create Another
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Three-Point Estimates

• MO Most Optimistic
• ML Most Likely
• MP Most Pessimistic

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Risk Monitoring Control
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The Risk Log
Description of the Risk Identified By Date
Identified Probability (if changeable give a
timeline) Impact (if changeable give a
timeline) Mitigating Actions Owner Review Date
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The Risk Log
The Project Controls Database
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When Something Happens

• Communication
• Update the log
• Time for Plan B
• Assess impact on what is still to do
• Identify any new risks

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