NOAA Observing Systems Architecture NOSA Investment Analysis Update

1
NOAA Observing Systems Architecture
(NOSA)Investment Analysis Update

• Eric Miller
• Acting NOAA Observing Systems Architect
• July 28, 2004

2
NOSA Investment Analysis
Value of Observing Systems
Gap Analysis
Observing System Investment Analysis
Cost Determination
Cost of Observing Systems
Value is considered to be the contribution an
observing system makes toward satisfying a
requirement
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Assessing Value of Observing Systems

• Surveyed NOAA programs Priority-1 (Mission
  Critical) observing requirements
• Flexibility to add/subtract/modify requirements
• Ecosystem Goal "important" requirements
• Identified current/planned/proposed observing
  systems that could contribute value toward
  satisfying each Priority-1 requirement
• Programs assessed value of all relevant
  investment options in terms of satisfying its
  Priority-1 requirements
• Flexibility to add/subtract/modify investment
  options

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Assumptions

• Each Priority-1 (Mission Critical) Observing
  Requirement equally valuable to NOAA
• Each Program within each Goal equally valuable to
  that Goal
• Each Goal equally valuable to NOAA

5
Limitations

• Focused only on Priority-1 (Mission Critical)
  Observing Requirements
• External solutions not studied in detail
• Equal weighting of all Requirements, Programs,
  and Goals
• Subjective but quantitative evaluations by Goal-
  designated representatives (internal to NOAA only)

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NOAA-Wide Gap Analysis
Updated Results
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Survey Status
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Updated Survey Results

• Over 60 Participants representing every Goal and
  the 26 programs/areas with observing requirements
• Over 400 different investment options (current
  and future) were proposed and evaluated against
  over 400 specific Priority-1 observing
  requirements
• Over 400 survey forms were administered
  encompassing about 5000 individual value
  assessments

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Outline of Goal-specific Analyses1 of 2

• Number of Requirements by Goal
• Number of Observing System Options by Goal
• Top Current Observing Options by Goal
• Gap Analysis by Goal
• Expansion options
• Upgrade options
• Combined Upgrade and Expand Options

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Outline of Goal-specific Analyses2 of 2

• Value distribution of selected systems across
  Goals
• Bubble Charts by Goal (TBD)
• Current
• Future
• Combined

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Number of Goal Requirements and Systems Evaluated
by Goal
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Preliminary Top 20 Most Valued Current
Observing Systems
Non-Satellite Systems
Satellite Systems

• NESDIS-POES/DMSP
• NESDIS-GOES

• NWS-BUOY
• NWS-C-MAN
• NWS-ASOS
• NOS-NWLON
• NWS-VOS
• NOS-SWMP
• COTS
• NMFS-Protected Resource Surveys
• NWS-COOP
• OAR-TAO/PIRATA
• NWS-RAWINSONDE

• OAR-ETL-RAWINSONDE
• NWS-MDCRS
• P3 Aircraft Surveys
• NMSS- Living Marine Resources Ecosystems
  Surveys
• ROV
• NEXRAD

Below-average score for depth
13
Top Current Observing Options by Goal
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Value Distribution by Goal
800
700
600
500
WeatherWater
Ecosystems
400
CommerceTrans
Climate
300
200
100
0
ROV
COTS
NWS-VOS
NWS-BUOY
NWS-ASOS
NOS-SWMP
NWS-COOP
NOS-PORTS
NWS-C-MAN
NOS-NWLON
NMFS-CREWS
NESDIS-GOES
NWS-MDCARS
NESDIS-NPOESS
OAR-TAO/PIRATA
SeaKeys Network
NWS-RAWINSONDE
OAR-ETL-Rawinsonde-MW11
NMFS-Protected Resource Surveys
NMFS-Resource and Ecosystem Surveys
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Cross-cutting Systems Example
NWS-Buoy Valuable to Multiple Goals
16
Preliminary Top New/Novel Systems

• NWS-UAV 10,000 flights/year
• NESDIS-Active Radar Satellite
• OAR-FSL GPS water vapor sensor
• Altair UAV

Systems w/ new capabilitiesnot upgrades of
current capabilities
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Gap Analysis by GoalTop Expansion Options
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Gap Analysis by GoalTop Upgrade Options
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Gap AnalysisTop Combined Expansion and Upgrade
Options
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Preliminary Ranking of All Current and Future
Satellite Options

• Current
• External data (from non-NOAA satellites)
• NESDIS-POES, GOES

• Future
• NESDIS-GOES-R, NPOESS
• NESDIS-Active Satellite Radar
• L4 or similar orbit
• L1 or similar orbit
• Space-based wind LIDAR (polar)
• GPS occultation
• Pole-sitter platform
• Satellite altimetry derived geo vectors (current
  speed direction)

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Preliminary Ranking of All Current Non-Satellite
Observing System Options (1 of 3)

• Acquire Data Externally
• NWS-BUOY
• NWS-C-MAN
• NMFS-CREWS
• NWS-VOS
• NWS-ASOS
• NWS-RAWINSONDE
• NOS-SWMP
• NOS-NWLON
• OAR-TAO/PIRATA
• OAR-ETL-Rawinsonde-MW11
• NMFS-Protected Resource Surveys
• ROV
• NWS-COOP
• COTS
• NMFS-Living Marine Resource and Ecosystem Surveys
• SeaKeys Network
• NOS-PORTS
• NWS-MDCARS

• Aerial color photography - digital
• Ron Brown
• Fixed-station survey
• Multibeam and backscatter sonar - launch mounted
• Ocean reference stations (3)
• Aerial hyperspectral imagery, digital - CASI
• Profiler
• Still photography - in-water
• Transect survey
• Aircraft w/LIDAR
• Divers, towed
• OAR-ARL-SURFRAD
• ORA-Marine Optical Buoy (MOBY)
• Twin Otter
• NMFS-Marine Recreational Fisheries Statistics
  Survey
• NOAA/CMDL Baseline Atmospheric Observatories
• AUV
• Aerial multispectral imagery
• Wave/tide recorders - fixed installation

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Preliminary Ranking of All Current Non-Satellite
Observing System Options (2 of 3)

• Airborne Ozone UV-Differential absorption lidar
  (DIAL) Leased Aircraft
• RSOIS
• OAR-ARL-ISIS
• Acoustic Doppler profiler - shipboard
• Other Living Marine Resource Surveys
• Towed side scan sonar
• NOAA/CMDL Stratospheric Aerosol Lidar Network
• NOS Visual Reef Census Work
• Side-scan sonar
• Station surveys - in-water
• NOS-Sanctuary Surveys
• NOS-Hydrographic surveys
• OAR-ETL-449 Radar
• OAR-ETL-Fish LIDAR
• Ozone Profiling Atmospheric Lidar (OPAL)
• Aerosol Monitoring Network (at 5 CMDL Baseline
  Observatories 4 additional sites)
• CODAR ocean sensors - SeaSonde radar
• Field biological surveys
• Manned submersible

• OAR-Profiling Radar (ETL)
• Radiometer casts from ships
• CMDL Column Spectral Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD)
  (sub-set of CMDL Aerosol Pgm)
• Nephelometry/beam attenuation
• OAR-AL-Tropical Pacific Wind Profilers
• Recon Flights w/ Dropsondes
• Shipboard PAR sensors
• Shipboard spectroradiometer
• NOAA/CMDL Column Ozone (Dobson) Monitoring
  Network
• Forward and downward pointing video cameras -
  shipboard
• OAR-PMEL-FOCI
• OAR-ETL 5mm Scanning Radiometer
• Hydrophone data loggers - in-water
• NMFS - Protected Resource Surveys
• OAR CREWS
• Secchi disk
• Transect surveys - in-water
• ABAEL (355 nm aerosol lidar) 1 Instrument
• Halocarbon and other Atmospheric Trace Species
  Network (5 components)

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Preliminary Ranking of All Current Non-Satellite
Observing System Options (3 of 3)

• NWS-FNP
• NWS-Profiling Radar-Alaska Network
• OAR-Periodic Fixed Sation Samples
• Port sampling
• Tall Towers Carbon Cycle Atmospheric Observing
  System (North America) (3 towers)
• NOAA/CMDL Ozone Profile (Ozonesonde) Monitoring
  Network
• Tows-nets
• Traps
• NOS Estuarine Living Marine Resources (ELMR)
  Program
• NOS Biogeography Program Survey
• NOS-National Coral Reef Ecosystem Monitoring
  Program
• OAR-ETL-LIDAR-HRDL-ost
• AWPA
• DCP
• NOS-NCOP
• OAR-ETL ground-based atmospheric IR emission
  interferometer
• OAR-Surface Recorder
• DCPS
• Radar Wind Profilers During Intensives

• Sampling Stations
• Surface LIDAR
• OAR-ETL-Windprofiler-RB
• Acoustic tagging
• CMDL
• Contaminant monitoring surveys
• NOS-Land-based surveys
• NWS ARC and LARC
• NWS Stream Gauges
• OAR-Wind Profiling Radar UHF (AL)
• Photography - film
• Sonic Anemometers
• NOAA/CMDL Balloon-borne Water Vapor Soundings
• National Profiler Network
• NOS-CORS
• OAR-Fish net pen visual surveys
• Volunteer Observing Ships
• Electronic tags
• NOS-Shipboard Surveys

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Preliminary Ranking of All Future Non-Satellite
Observing System Options (1 of 3)

• NWS-BUOY
• NWS-C-MAN
• NMFS-CREWS
• OAR-TAO/PIRATA
• NWS-COOP
• NWS-VOS
• NWS-ASOS
• NWS-RAWINSONDE
• NOS-SWMP
• NOS-NWLON
• NOS-PORTS
• ROV
• NMFS-Protected Resource Surveys
• NWS-MDCARS
• NMFS-Living Marine Resource and Ecosystem Surveys
• SeaKeys Network
• P3
• NMFS-National Observer Program
• NWS-UAV

• ORA-Marine Optical Buoy (MOBY)
• Twin Otter
• Multibeam and backscatter sonar - launch mounted
• Aerial color photography - film
• Ocean reference stations (3)
• NOS-Sanctuary Monitoring
• Aerial color photography - digital
• OAR-Argo (3000)
• Fixed-station survey
• Still photography - in-water
• NOAA/CMDL Baseline Atmospheric Observatories
• Divers, towed
• Aircraft w/LIDAR
• OAR-ARL-SURFRAD
• Acoustic Doppler profiler - fixed installation
• AIRMon
• NMFS-Marine Recreational Fisheries Statistics
  Survey
• Transect survey
• Wave/tide recorders - fixed installation

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Preliminary Ranking of All Future Non-Satellite
Observing System Options (2 of 3)

• CODAR ocean sensors - SeaSonde radar
• NOAA/CMDL Stratospheric Aerosol Lidar Network
• Towed side scan sonar
• OAR-ETL-Fish LIDAR
• Station surveys - in-water
• CMDL Column Spectral Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD)
  (sub-set of CMDL Aerosol Pgm)
• OAR-AOML-Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)
• Ozone Profiling Atmospheric Lidar (OPAL)
• OAR-ETL-449 Radar
• OAR-FSL GPS water vapor sensor
• Field biological surveys
• Altair UAV
• Camera bait stations - in-water
• Drop camera
• NWS-NOHRSC Airborne Snow Survey
• Radiometer casts from ships
• Deployed temperature recorders
• OAR-Profiling Radar (ETL)
• Passive acoustic monitors - in-water

• Hydrophone data loggers - in-water
• ABAEL (355 nm aerosol lidar) 1 Instrument
• CMDL Carbon Cycle Global Cooperative Air Sampling
  Network
• Light Aircraft Rental-Climate Air Chem
• NOAA/CMDL Ozone Profile (Ozonesonde) Monitoring
  Network
• NOAA/CMDL Surface Ozone Monitoring Network
• OAR CREWS
• Profiler
• Secchi disk
• NOAA/CMDL Column Ozone (Dobson) Monitoring
  Network
• Port sampling
• Transect surveys - in-water
• Volunteer Observing Ships
• Photography from towed divers
• SEAS/XBTs
• NOAA/CMDL Balloon-borne Water Vapor Soundings
• Electronic tags
• Remote sensing technologies
• Fixed-station surveys - in-water

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Preliminary Ranking of All Future Non-Satellite
Observing System Options (3 of 3)

• OAR-Bottom sediment traps
• OAR-Fish net pen visual surveys
• OAR-water column sample stations
• NOS-Shipboard Surveys
• NWS ARC and LARC
• Surface LIDAR
• Tagging studies
• Halocarbon and other Atmospheric Trace Species
  Network (5 components)
• Ozone Sondes
• Sky Arrow
• Acoustical surveys
• Diver transects

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Potential Capability Improvements (Study
Required)(In Alphabetical Order)

• NESDIS-GOES R (from GOES I-P)
• NESDIS-GOES R P3I (from GOES R)
• NESDIS-NPOESS (from POES/DMSP)
• NWS-COOP Modernized
• NWS-UAV 1000 flights/year w/Dropsondes (New
  Capability)

• Total of 29 capability improvements proposed
• Average increase of nearly 7 in number of
  observation measured (breadth)
• Average increase of nearly 16 in value of
  contribution to measurement (depth)

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Potential Combined Capacity and Capability
Improvements (Study Required)(In Alphabetical
Order)

• NOS-PORTS upgraded and expanded
• NOS-Sanctuary Monitoring upgraded and expanded
• NWS-BUOY upgraded and expanded
• NWS-C-MAN upgraded and expanded

• 18 combined upgrades and expansions proposed
• Nearly 16 average increase in value in measuring
  observation
• Nearly 36 increase in number of types of
  observations

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Current NOAA Systems
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Current NOAA Systems plus External Systems Used
by NOAA
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Current plus Possible Future Systems NOAA-wide
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Current plus Possible Future Systems NOAA-wide

• Goal is to have future systems move Up and to the
  Right

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Investment Analysis Next Steps

• Complete validation of surveys Jul 23
• Ensure data accurately captured
• Complete Gap analyses Jul 30
• Identify gaps between requirements and
• current capabilities
• NOSC Input to AGM Aug 5
• Develop preliminary focus areas for Goal Team
  programming
• Improve observation requirements coordination
  across Goals
• Eliminate unnecessary redundancy
• Decide on path increase current system capacity
  versus improving current system capabilities
• Decide on path increase breadth versus depth of
• current/planned systems
• Integrate preliminary cost info Aug 16
• Obtain investment and life-cycle sustainment
• costs from programs
• Select focus areas based on initial cost info Aug
  22
• Update investment recommendations Oct 15

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• Questions?

35

• BACKUP

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Preliminary ResultsDescriptive Statistics

• Baseline systems/options were evaluated in 2
  ways
• Breadth - The number of different Priority-1
  observing requirements a system contributes
  toward measuring
• On average each baseline system contributes
  toward measuring 7.75 different Priority-1
  requirements (environmental parameters)
• The number of Priority-1 requirements observed by
  each system ranges from 1 to 109
• Depth - How valuable a contribution a system
  makes towards measuring each observation (on a
  scale of 1-10)
• On average each baseline system contributes a
  value of 5.6 towards measuring each Priority-1
  requirement
• Median value 6
• Standard deviation 1.9
• Each system was then valued by taking the
  product of its Breadth and Depth

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External Observing Systems

• 65 different external systems/options were
  evaluated in 2 ways
• Breadth - The number of different observations a
  system contributes toward measuring
• On average each baseline system contributes
  toward measuring 3 different observations (vice
  NOAAs 7.75)
• Values ranged from 1 to 16 observations
• Depth - How valuable a contribution a system
  makes towards measuring each observation (on a
  scale of 1-10)
• On average each baseline system contributes a
  value of 6.2 (out of 10) towards measuring each
  observation (vice NOAAs 5.6)
• Median 7
• Standard deviation 2.5

38
Capacity Analysis

• For each Priority-1 observing requirement each
  participant was invited to offer one or more
  expanded options (e.g. increase the number of
  platforms) for each baseline system that measures
  that requirement
• Capacity gaps were then identified by taking the
  difference between the baseline value score and
  the expanded system value score
• Participants indicated capacity gaps by scoring
  the baseline system at the lower end of the scale
  and their proposed expanded system at the higher
  end of the scale.

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Capability Analysis

• For each Priority-1 observing requirement each
  participant was invited to offer one or more
  enhanced (e.g., add new instruments) and/or
  upgraded options for each baseline system that
  measures that requirement
• Capability gaps were then identified by taking
  the difference between the baseline value score
  and the enhanced/upgraded system value score
• Participants indicated capability gaps by scoring
  the baseline system at the lower end of the scale
  and their proposed enhanced/upgraded system at
  the higher end of the scale.

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Preliminary Top 10 Future System Improvements

• NESDIS-NPOESS
• NESDIS-GOES R
• NESDIS-GOES R P3I
• NWS-UAV 1000 flights/year w/Dropsondes (New)
• NWS-COOP Modernized
• NWS-RAWINSONDE expanded
• NOS-PORTS upgraded and expanded
• NWS-BUOY upgraded and expanded
• NWS-C-MAN upgraded and expanded
• NOS-Sanctuary Monitoring upgraded and expanded

41
Potential Capacity Improvements (Study
Required)(In Alphabetical Order)

• NMFS-CREWS expanded
• NMFS-Protected Resource Surveys expanded
• NOS-AUV expanded
• NOS-NWLON expanded
• NOS-ROV expanded
• NOS-SWMP expanded
• NWS-ASOS expanded
• NWS-BUOY expanded
• NWS-C-MAN expanded
• NWS-RAWINSONDE expanded

• About 100 capacity expansions proposed
• Average increase in value of nearly 30
• Average increase in number of observations of 1