Rural Data Analysis

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Rural Data Analysis

• by Ben Winchester
• Coordinator, Data Analysis Research
• Center for Small Towns
• University of Minnesota, Morris

November 18, 2003 www.centerforsmalltowns.org
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• 853 Cities in 2000

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Number and Population of Cities by Size in
Minnesota, 2000
Ratio Fact For each city of more than 25,000
persons, there are 22 under 5,000
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Cities Gaining and Losing Population in 2000 by
Size in Minnesota
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Population, 2000 Minnesota 80 City 19
Township West Central Minnesota 55 City 45
Township North West Minnesota 44 City 56
Township
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Population Change 1990 - 2000
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The largest predictor of growth between 1990 and
2000 is the presence of water. Recreation is the
latest boon for rural Minnesota.
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• City of Morris
• 5,068 according to 2000 Census
• 5,173 Corrected Figure (misplaced in Baker
  Township)

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Minor Civil Divisions for Stevens
County, Minnesota
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Traditional maps have focused on the COUNTY level
of analysis.
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• At the level of
• MINOR CIVIL DIVISIONS,
• the variation within the county
• now becomes apparent.
• Minor Civil Divisions include
• Cities (853)
• Townships (1794)
• Unorganized Territories

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Becker Clay Douglas Grant Otter
Tail Pope Stevens Traverse Wilkin
Percent Change 1990-2000 for West Central
Minnesota
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Cohort-Component Method

• In the cohort-component method, the components of
  population change (fertility, mortality, and net
  migration) are projected separately for each
  birth cohort (persons born in a given year).
• In 2000, we expect the 11-20 age to be the the
  0-10 age of 2000 plus births, minus deaths /-
  migration.
• Varies depending on death rates and migration

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Actual 2000 population vs. 1990 predicted
population of age category West Central Minnesota
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The ABCs of Minnesota Small Towns
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Data Sources

• U.S. Census Bureau www.factfinder.census.gov
• Bureau of Economic Analysis www.bea.gov
• Minnesota Workforce Center www.mnwfc.org

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Economic Analysis - Location Quotients

• A location quotient examine the strength of an
  industrys concentration in an area
• relative to the another area such as the county
  in relation to the state. This is a useful tool
  to determine key industries in the region.
• Data you need
• the county employment by industry and total
  employment
• the state employment by industry and total
  employment
• The Equation
• Industrys local employment
• Total local employment
• Share of Employment ----------------------------
  -------------------
• Industrys state employment
• Total state employment

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Calculate the Location Quotients

• http//www.bea.gov/bea/regional/statelocal.htm
• Using the data handed out, break into small
  groups to calculate the LQ for each major
  industry in each year for Stevens County.

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Location Quotient Interpretations

• A LQgt1 implies the industry is producing more
  than is consumed locally.
• A LQlt1 indicates residents and businesses
  purchase outside the area.
• Not all LQgt1 indicate a competitive industry
  (government in Stevens County).

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Location Quotient Change

• change Most recent year LQ - 1 x 100
  Base year LQ
• Group the industries into four categories
• Large LQ that is declining
• Large LQ that is increasing
• Small LQ that is declining
• Small LQ that is increasing
• Next, discuss an economic development approach
  for each category.

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Economic Analysis Resources

• Understanding Your Industries (HHH at U of M)
• http//www.hhh.umn.edu/centers/slp/projects/edweb/
  uyihom.htm
• Understand Your Local Economy Penn State
• http//cecd.aers.psu.edu/using_employment_data_to_
  better.htm
• Community Economic Development Toolbox CaRDI
  (Cornell)
• http//www.cardi.cornell.edu/cd-toolbox/index.htm

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Another Resource

• RRD 141 Community Economic Analysis A How To
  Manual
• Hustedde, R. J., R. Shaffer, and G. Pulver.
  Revised 1993. Community Economic Analysis A How
  To Manual. (RRD141). Ames, IA North Central
  Regional Center for Rural Development. ISBN
  0-936913-06-1. Library of Congress Catalog Card
  Number 93-86303.    
• This manual is intended for the individual
  interested in the analysis of a community's
  economy. It is designed to assist individuals who
  need to bring information to a group of citizens
  or decision makers concerned with the economic
  future of a community. The manual addresses
  nonlocal markets linkage, strategies for economic
  development, multipliers, assessing the size and
  shape of a community's trade area, keeping local
  dollars in the community, measuring the
  efficiency of local firms, and other strategies.