The Ebb and Flow of Rural Growth:

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The Ebb and Flow of Rural Growth Spread,
Backwash, or Stagnation Presentation
forDepartment of Rural Development June 9, 2005
By Mark D. Partridge Canada Research Chair in
the New Rural Economy Department of Agricultural
Economics University of Saskatchewan Canada Rural
Economy Research Lab (C-RERL) Mark.partridge_at_usask
.ca http//crerl.usask.ca/ Thanks to C-RERLs
Mike St. Louis!
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Some Mark Definitions

• What is successful development?
• Combination of job creation, incomes, economic
  stability and QUALITY of LIFE
• Compensating differentials in a remote mining
  camp
• Quality of life is not todays topic.
• Aboriginal Development IMPORTANT, not todays
  topic
• How do I measure success
• People vote with their feet thats how I know.
• Population growth
• Net-migration
• Rural Sask and Manitoba have not fared well with
  this measure.

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• What is Rural?
• Hi, I am from Toronto. Regina is the Styx.
• We can do better than that for the Prairies.
• I will use the Stats Can Rural and Small Town
  definition.
• Urban is CMAs and CAs
• CMA is 100,000 urban core commuting zone
• CA is 10,000-99,999 urban core commuting zone
• So Weyburn is rural, Estevan is not arbitrary

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Motivation

• There is an extensive policy debate
• People based policy give targeted groups the
  skills and resources regardless of their location
• Helping places is wasteful
• Place-Based help targeted places because people
  are less mobile. Infrastructure already there.
• In rural development, focus has often been on
  Spread and Backwash

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• Spread is urban growth ebbs out and induces rural
  growth
• In the old days Growth Poles complementary
  growth
• Commuting for rural residents and urban residents
  wanting lower housing prices.
• Not every rural resident commutes
• Enough to keep the town above the threshold for
  minimal business/public services to stop vicious
  circle.
• Helps some small farms to stay afloat

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• Backwash is urban growth steals rural
  population
• competing growth
• People move to cities to take work.
• Capital moves from rural to urban.
• In some sense, this is Saskatoon 1950-1990
• This would cause a Rural/Urban Divide.

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Im seasick from the water analogies !

• What does this have to do with rural
  Saskatchewan?
• Does thinking about our regional centres as
  growth nodes actually help rural SK?
• OR, will urban growth cause vitality to trickle
  out of rural SK?
• Evidence supports spread argument
• But first lets dispel some misconceptions.

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Saskatchewan in North America

• Saskatchewan Manitoba are part of a Great
  Plains pattern
• Not NDP or conservatives pattern as comparing
  North Dakota and Saskatchewan show.
• Alberta doesnt look so hot when compared to
  mountain states.
• Amenities or pro-business climate,
• Oil is not a good explanation for long-run
  Albertan growth. (separate cycle from long-run
  trend)

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• Remember, people vote with their feet.
• What are rural growth patterns near urban
  centres? U of S research linking statistical
  analysis with GIS suggests
• 1991-2001 In rural Canada, for every 1km further
  away from the nearest urban centre, rural
  communities experienced about 0.15 less
  population growth.
• At the mean distance of 61kms, a rural
  communitys population growth was about 9
  percentage points less just in a 10 yr period!
• At a distance of 150km, over 20 less growth!
• even worse in the 1980s

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The Impact of Urban Centre Distance on Rural
Population Growth 1991-2001
Mean Distance
Source Partridge, Mark, Ray Bollman, M. Rose
Olfer, and Alessandro Alasia. 2005. The Trickle
of Urban Growth to the CountrysideSpread,
Backwash, or Stagnation. Presented at the
Canadian Regional Science Association Meetings,
Toronto, ON, June 4, 2005, available at
http//crerl.usask.ca
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• Using Sask Manitoba data, preliminary
  statistical analysis suggests that
• At a distance of 100km, a typical rural community
  has about 23 less population growth than an
  equivalent adjacent rural community over the
  1991-2001 period.
• Saskatchewan/Manitoba effect is even stronger
  than the national average!

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What does this mean?

• It is extremely difficult to generate sustainable
  growth further away from urban centres.
• This says something about the highest return on
  taxpayer dollars for rural development. Past
  emphasis has been elsewhere rather than high
  returns.
• Visual evidence for the Prairies.

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• What about distance from urban centre?
• Add a 75km ring
• Add a 100km ring (one hour drive)

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• With the exception of mostly reserves, almost all
  of the growing rural areas are in the rings.
• 78 of the SKs population resides within 75km of
  our 9 urban centres.
• About 86 are within 100km (and this is rising)
• Within 100km of urban centres
• 91-92 of Albertas population
• 90-91 of Manitobas population.

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• This suggests that if we focus on the rings, we
  have a fighting chance of helping rural SK. Much
  better hope than the policies of the last 70
  years.
• Yet SK lags Canada in integrating nearby
  countryside with cities in the rings.
• 1981-2001 Rural CCS Population Growth

Source, Statistics Canada, See Partridge,
Bollman, Olfert, and Alasia, 2005. Saskatchewan
does not include northern CD 18. Distance is
calculated from rural CCS centroid to the CA/CMA
centroid using C-RERL GIS. Population growth is
weighted by 1991 CCS population. CA//CMA averages
are 15.2 (SK) and 35.3 (CAN).
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What about spread effects?

• It is hard to sustain rural-centric growth.
• Research by Olfert and Stabler show that towns
  below a certain population threshold are
  struggling to hold their own.
• The growth threshold is rising over time
• Perhaps 5,000 in 1990, say 8,000 today.
• Delay could put our smallest regional centres at
  risk toppling key anchors and their neighboring
  rural communities.

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• Does urban growth spread out into rural areas?
• If so, we can support our smaller regional
  centres and the nearby rural communities.
• Yes, growth spreads to rural communities.
• Adjacent rural gains about 1/3 of urban growth.
• Even at 60km, rural gains about 1/5 of the growth
  rate.
• Urban growth spreads until about 180km.
• Not a Rural/Urban Divide!
• Rural has a stake in urban and visa versa

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Canada Rural Population After One Standard
Deviation 7.6 Change in Urban Population
Mean Distance
Source Partridge, Mark, Ray Bollman, M. Rose
Olfer, and Alessandro Alasia. 2005. The Trickle
of Urban Growth to the CountrysideSpread,
Backwash, or Stagnation. Presented at the
Canadian Regional Science Association Meetings,
Toronto, ON, June 4, 2005, available at
http//crerl.usask.ca
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• This research suggests that promoting growth in
  the urban centre helps promote growth in the
  entire rural commuting shed.
• If the govt wants to support the well-being in
  the part of Sask where 7/8ths of the population
  resides, it would support policies to strengthen
  regional centres.
• The widespread growth would augment rural
  population so that rural towns can maintain
  sufficient services to retain population.
• i.e., when the school and the grocery store
  close, we know what happens.

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Supporting Policies

• What about the one-eighth of the population
  outside of reach of an urban centre?
• Economic forces mean not all towns will survive.
• Large productive farms and minimal business
  services.
• This is where niche markets can help in special
  cases, but this is an uphill battle.
• Tourism Cant be random lilac festivals, but
  rather linked to natural amenities or something
  like a casino.
• Some value added agriculture cautionary note
  everywhere is trying this strategy from Texas to
  AB
• There are larger towns that could thrive with
  clever value added manufacturing, etc. (Weyburn)

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• How do we facilitate better rural-urban links
  with neighboring rural communities?
• Transportation needs to be arranged to move
  people, not just commodities.
• Policies such as immigration may help.
• Note that it is not inherently true that
  immigration would help. Immigrants may displace
  Native Canadians (simple supply and demand)

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• In rural areas that had 1 greater 1986-1991
  immigrant population share had 1.5 faster
  population growth between 1991-2001.
• Immigrant multiplier effect from
• Enclave effects
• Allows rural communities to stay above threshold.
• Not true for urban areas.
• Policy problem immigrants want to settle near
  other immigrants and near urban centers.
• Not a general rural solution

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Percent of Population that Immigrated in 1996-2001
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• Another policy that may work is self
  employment/entrepreneurship support.
• Entrepreneurship is not necessarily a sign of
  strength could be desperate people or tax
  avoidance.
• In rural Canada, a 1 higher nonfarm
  self-employment share is associated with another
  0.13 population growth.
• Apparently the stories of home-grown capital are
  true.

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• The biggest policy need is improved governance.
• Local SK communities compete at the cost of all
  of them tend to lose.
• Rural SK communities often lack the critical mass
  to act alone.
• Because rural communities have no voice in urban
  development, they in effect have no voice over
  their livelihood.
• Small urban communities lose needed critical
  mass Estevan, Swift Current, Yorkton.

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Research

• More study of how SK differs from the rest of
  Canada in urban-rural interdependence. How can we
  enhance the spread effects?
• This would require quality statistical analysis
  and GIS.
• Case studies are of much less value. They are
  often contaminated by opinions, feelings,
  spurious association, small sample bias, and
  cant be generalized.
• Case studies are only helpful after we know the
  basic facts. They need guidance from empirical
  research.
• More research is needed on immigration. I
  referred to preliminary work by a U of S graduate
  student Balal Alfallah.

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• More research is needed on amenities and public
  services can be used to enhance rural quality of
  life. not todays topic
• In a broader regional framework, regions can link
  up to provide parks, shopping variety, tourism,
  environmental protection, education, health, and
  transportation.
• We need more understanding of how to encourage
  better rural-urban governance
• From sprawl to economic development
• Would better governance be spurred by carefully
  tailored incentives to encourage cooperation?
• 70 yrs of economic struggles havent produced
  cooperation.

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THANK YOU.