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An Overview of Climate Change

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Title: An Overview of Climate Change


1
An Overview of Climate Change
Alan Hopkins (GES Consulting)
2
Outline of talk
  • Climate change and greenhouse gases evidence of
    recent trends in climate change and anticipated
    future trends.
  • Possible effects on agriculture and land use
    how resilient are we?
  • Adaptations and possible measures to reduce
    climate change
  • Threats and uncertainties need to plan ahead
  • Opportunities for UK farms and rural businesses

3
Terminology
  • Climate change and global warming
  • The Greenhouse effect
  • Greenhouse gases
  • Climate change scenarios
  • Adaptations and mitigations

4
Climate Change 16th Century
5
Greenhouse gases
  • 100-yr GWP Concentrations now and 200 years ago
  • CO2 1 374 ppm (280)
  • Methane 23 1745 ppb (700)
  • Nitrous oxide 300 314 ppb (270)
  • CFCs 4000 268 ppt (zero)

6
Agricultures contribution to greenhouse gas
emissions in UK
  • 1 of carbon dioxide (fuels and fertilisers).
  • 30 of methane (enteric fermentation / manure
    management mainly cattle /sheep)
  • gt 60 nitrous oxide (soils and fertilisers).
  • 8 direct greenhouse gas emissions in the UK
  • UK agriculture part of the problem but is part of
    the solution

7
Anticipated 21st century climate change impacts
  • Annual rainfall similar to past, but more wetter
    winters and summer droughts .
  • Continuing trend of higher average temperatures
    (1-5o C higher).
  • Regional variations warming greatest in SE.
  • More variability in winds, storms and droughts.
  • Internationally impacts greater in other parts
    of Europe and in feed exporting areas.

8
Likely climate change impacts and adaptations for
different sectors
  • How resilient are the various sectors of UK
    farming ?
  • What responses can farmers make to climate change
    ?
  • What are the international impacts ?

9
  • 1). Forage production and ruminant livestock
  • Changes in rainfall will affect grazing, summer
    feed and timing of field operations.
  • Higher temperatures and CO2 can lead to increased
    forage growth.
  • New opportunities (legumes, maize, whole-crop)
    and some on-farm potential for energy cropping
    and AD.
  • But heat stress, increased winter wind speed,
    and risks from more extreme events require
    management responses.

10
  • 1). Forage production and ruminant livestock
  • Changes in rainfall will affect grazing, summer
    feed and timing of field operations.
  • Higher temps and CO2 increase forage growth.
  • New opportunities (legumes, maize, whole-crop)
    and some on-farm potential for energy cropping
    and AD.
  • But heat stress, increased winter wind speed,
    and risks from more extreme events require
    management responses.
  • Overall UK dairy, beef and sheep have good
    potential to adapt to effects of future climate
    change compared with some competitors.

11
2) UK arable cropping systems
  • Warmer, drier summers increased drought stress
    (especially for root crops) and earlier
    maturation.
  • Risks of damage from increased storminess
    (standing crops, farm buildings).
  • Wetter winters and storms establishment of
    winter-sown crops and fields ops in general soil
    erosion and nutrient losses. Flooding and coastal
    losses.
  • New pests and diseases and earlier attacks.

12
UK arable cropping systems potential for
responses and adaptations
  • New crops and varieties.
  • Precision Conservation Management.
  • Risk management (e.g. mix of crops, managing
    water supplies flood, storm and drought plans)
    and need to maintain soil structure and carbon.
  • Biomass planting and carbon sequestration.
  • Overall UK arable farms have potential to adapt
    to effects of future climate change. Major
    concerns of coastal land and flood plains and of
    soils with poor structure and low organic matter.

13
3) Implications for UK Pig production
  • Heat stress reduced feed intake and growth, and
    reduced fertility.
  • Outdoor systems sun/ heat in summer, and more
    frequent rainstorms (loss of soil, P, pathogens.
  • Indoor systems temperature regulation and
    ventilation.
  • Welfare issues for transport in hot weather.
  • Management of slurry stores
  • Continuity of feed supplies and greater feed
    price fluctuations on international markets.
  • Pressures from regulations and requirements for
    carbon footprinting.
  • Possible new diseases?

14
Likely future pressures for farmers to mitigate
impacts of climate change what are the options ?
  • Improved management of manures, fertiliser, soil
    and water to conserve water supplies, protect
    soil quality and reduce net gaseous emissions.
  • Increase carbon sequestration in soils, grass and
    other farmland vegetation (possibly with future
    carbon emissions trading).
  • Renewable energy crops to displace fossil fuels
    and at same time remove GHGs from atmosphere.
  • Many low-cost options can be implemented now.

15
Management to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions
CO2
  • Energy plan to improve energy efficiency on the
    farm, per unit of output.
  • Maximize returns of manure and carbon to improve
    soil organic matter.
  • On mixed farms maintain existing permanent
    pasture, and incorporate forage leys and reduced
    tillage where possible.
  • Optimise nutrient N inputs for feed crops aiming
    to minimise mineral N fertiliser use.
  • Consider potential for biomass or biofuel crops,
    or of trees, hedges, scrub etc on any
    unproductive sites, ground-source heat.

16
Management to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions
methane
  • Reduce emissions from manure through better
    management (oxygen supply/ covers)
  • Consider using manure in anaerobic digestion as
    energy source potentially very important in
    future.
  • Diet change (cattle, reduce emissions from
    enteric fermentation through diet change, rumen
    manipulation, or systematic changes pig manure
    CH4 lower under lower CP diets)

17
Management to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions
nitrous oxide
  • Improving fertilizer efficiency, especially of
    nitrates.
  • Optimizing methods and timing of applications.
  • Avoid bare ground after crops (use cover crops to
    catch residual N).
  • Outdoor pigs aim to capture residual nutrients
    by timely crop sowings.
  • Where cattle are kept - minimizing the grazing
    period allows more control.

18
New farm-scale opportunities?
  • UK more resilient than some other areas, so
    global effects on world agriculture could benefit
    UK farmers.
  • Some benefits from climate change from milder
    average climate and increased CO2.
  • New crops, including biofuels and industrial
    crops, and longer growing season in some areas.
  • Climate Change Levy Rebate.
  • Legumes to offset artificial N inputs (
    savings).
  • Carbon trading for C storage in soils
  • On-farm energy production.
  • Reduce methane emissions from livestock manures
    through anaerobic digestion.

19
Conclusions
  • Convergence of food economy and energy economy,
    plus wider environmental goals ? need for
    integrated approaches. Global effects on world
    agriculture, and energy security issues will
    benefit UK farmers.
  • Potential for increased yields of crops and
    forages, but regional problems of droughts and
    coastal areas and flood plains vulnerable.
  • Uncertainties remain. Consensus that we plan to
    adapt to anticipated change and to mitigate the
    probable causes (GHGs) at the farm scale.
  • Plan for uncertainties through more home produced
    feeds, mix of crops and harvest / sowing times.
    Multi-purpose land use and on-farm energy
    production.
  • .

20
Thank you for your attention
21
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