An Overview of Climate Change

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An Overview of Climate Change
Alan Hopkins (GES Consulting)
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Outline of talk

• Climate change and greenhouse gases evidence of
  recent trends in climate change and anticipated
  future trends.
• Possible effects on agriculture and land use
  how resilient are we?
• Adaptations and possible measures to reduce
  climate change
• Threats and uncertainties need to plan ahead
• Opportunities for UK farms and rural businesses

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Terminology

• Climate change and global warming
• The Greenhouse effect
• Greenhouse gases
• Climate change scenarios
• Adaptations and mitigations

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Climate Change 16th Century
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Greenhouse gases

• 100-yr GWP Concentrations now and 200 years ago
• CO2 1 374 ppm (280)
• Methane 23 1745 ppb (700)
• Nitrous oxide 300 314 ppb (270)
• CFCs 4000 268 ppt (zero)

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Agricultures contribution to greenhouse gas
emissions in UK

• 1 of carbon dioxide (fuels and fertilisers).
• 30 of methane (enteric fermentation / manure
  management mainly cattle /sheep)
• gt 60 nitrous oxide (soils and fertilisers).
• 8 direct greenhouse gas emissions in the UK
• UK agriculture part of the problem but is part of
  the solution

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Anticipated 21st century climate change impacts

• Annual rainfall similar to past, but more wetter
  winters and summer droughts .
• Continuing trend of higher average temperatures
  (1-5o C higher).
• Regional variations warming greatest in SE.
• More variability in winds, storms and droughts.
• Internationally impacts greater in other parts
  of Europe and in feed exporting areas.

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Likely climate change impacts and adaptations for
different sectors

• How resilient are the various sectors of UK
  farming ?
• What responses can farmers make to climate change
  ?
• What are the international impacts ?

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• 1). Forage production and ruminant livestock
• Changes in rainfall will affect grazing, summer
  feed and timing of field operations.
• Higher temperatures and CO2 can lead to increased
  forage growth.
• New opportunities (legumes, maize, whole-crop)
  and some on-farm potential for energy cropping
  and AD.
• But heat stress, increased winter wind speed,
  and risks from more extreme events require
  management responses.

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• 1). Forage production and ruminant livestock
• Changes in rainfall will affect grazing, summer
  feed and timing of field operations.
• Higher temps and CO2 increase forage growth.
• New opportunities (legumes, maize, whole-crop)
  and some on-farm potential for energy cropping
  and AD.
• But heat stress, increased winter wind speed,
  and risks from more extreme events require
  management responses.
• Overall UK dairy, beef and sheep have good
  potential to adapt to effects of future climate
  change compared with some competitors.

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2) UK arable cropping systems

• Warmer, drier summers increased drought stress
  (especially for root crops) and earlier
  maturation.
• Risks of damage from increased storminess
  (standing crops, farm buildings).
• Wetter winters and storms establishment of
  winter-sown crops and fields ops in general soil
  erosion and nutrient losses. Flooding and coastal
  losses.
• New pests and diseases and earlier attacks.

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UK arable cropping systems potential for
responses and adaptations

• New crops and varieties.
• Precision Conservation Management.
• Risk management (e.g. mix of crops, managing
  water supplies flood, storm and drought plans)
  and need to maintain soil structure and carbon.
• Biomass planting and carbon sequestration.
• Overall UK arable farms have potential to adapt
  to effects of future climate change. Major
  concerns of coastal land and flood plains and of
  soils with poor structure and low organic matter.

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3) Implications for UK Pig production

• Heat stress reduced feed intake and growth, and
  reduced fertility.
• Outdoor systems sun/ heat in summer, and more
  frequent rainstorms (loss of soil, P, pathogens.
• Indoor systems temperature regulation and
  ventilation.
• Welfare issues for transport in hot weather.
• Management of slurry stores
• Continuity of feed supplies and greater feed
  price fluctuations on international markets.
• Pressures from regulations and requirements for
  carbon footprinting.
• Possible new diseases?

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Likely future pressures for farmers to mitigate
impacts of climate change what are the options ?

• Improved management of manures, fertiliser, soil
  and water to conserve water supplies, protect
  soil quality and reduce net gaseous emissions.
• Increase carbon sequestration in soils, grass and
  other farmland vegetation (possibly with future
  carbon emissions trading).
• Renewable energy crops to displace fossil fuels
  and at same time remove GHGs from atmosphere.
• Many low-cost options can be implemented now.

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Management to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions
CO2

• Energy plan to improve energy efficiency on the
  farm, per unit of output.
• Maximize returns of manure and carbon to improve
  soil organic matter.
• On mixed farms maintain existing permanent
  pasture, and incorporate forage leys and reduced
  tillage where possible.
• Optimise nutrient N inputs for feed crops aiming
  to minimise mineral N fertiliser use.
• Consider potential for biomass or biofuel crops,
  or of trees, hedges, scrub etc on any
  unproductive sites, ground-source heat.

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Management to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions
methane

• Reduce emissions from manure through better
  management (oxygen supply/ covers)
• Consider using manure in anaerobic digestion as
  energy source potentially very important in
  future.
• Diet change (cattle, reduce emissions from
  enteric fermentation through diet change, rumen
  manipulation, or systematic changes pig manure
  CH4 lower under lower CP diets)

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Management to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions
nitrous oxide

• Improving fertilizer efficiency, especially of
  nitrates.
• Optimizing methods and timing of applications.
• Avoid bare ground after crops (use cover crops to
  catch residual N).
• Outdoor pigs aim to capture residual nutrients
  by timely crop sowings.
• Where cattle are kept - minimizing the grazing
  period allows more control.

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New farm-scale opportunities?

• UK more resilient than some other areas, so
  global effects on world agriculture could benefit
  UK farmers.
• Some benefits from climate change from milder
  average climate and increased CO2.
• New crops, including biofuels and industrial
  crops, and longer growing season in some areas.
• Climate Change Levy Rebate.
• Legumes to offset artificial N inputs (
  savings).
• Carbon trading for C storage in soils
• On-farm energy production.
• Reduce methane emissions from livestock manures
  through anaerobic digestion.

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Conclusions

• Convergence of food economy and energy economy,
  plus wider environmental goals ? need for
  integrated approaches. Global effects on world
  agriculture, and energy security issues will
  benefit UK farmers.
• Potential for increased yields of crops and
  forages, but regional problems of droughts and
  coastal areas and flood plains vulnerable.
• Uncertainties remain. Consensus that we plan to
  adapt to anticipated change and to mitigate the
  probable causes (GHGs) at the farm scale.
• Plan for uncertainties through more home produced
  feeds, mix of crops and harvest / sowing times.
  Multi-purpose land use and on-farm energy
  production.
• .

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Thank you for your attention
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