SRB Allocation Tool

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SRB Allocation Tool
Navy Workforce Conference May 5 - 7, 2008
Rick Loffredo (CSC), Dr. Chariya Punyanitya
(CSC), Dr. Tanja Blackstone (NPRST), Dr. Colin
Osterman (NPRST)

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Agenda

• Objective
• Background
• Features
• Data
• Model and Computational Approach
• Demonstration Outputs
• Conclusions Recommendations

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Objective

• Prescribe SRB award levels across skills to
  achieve projected strength as close as possible
  to target endstrength by skill and zone
• Leverage existing SKIPPER Navy Enlisted Inventory
  Projection Model
• Baseline Inventory Projections starting point
  (for each EMC-NEC)
• Selected Reenlistment Bonus (SRB) Modeling using
  NPRST econometric studies
• Powerful Scenario Management Facility
• Prototype developed under NPRST guidance

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SKIPPER Model Background

• SKIPPER (Skilled Personnel Projection for
  Enlisted Retention)
• Web-based Open-Box Model
• Powerful Scenario and What-If Analysis
  Capability to support Strategic Planning
• Scenarios become the key to what-if analysis
• Generalized and Expandable Modeling Framework
• Multi-year Inventory Projection
• Personnel Master File-based historical data with
  override capability
• School Input Optimization and Skill Conversion
  Planning
• Selective Reenlistment Bonus, Advancement and
  Rotation Modeling
• The system is holistic
• All parts are executed together
• Suite of Reporting Tools
• Career Reenlistment Objectives (CREO)
• Scenario Comparison
• Skill Rollup to the All Navy Level

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SKIPPER System Interactions
EMF/EBF
Data generation
SKIPPER DB
Scenario Results Saved
Input data

• Accession Optimization
• Adjust Gains
• Target EPA by LOS

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SRB Allocation Tool Features

• Automated access to published SKIPPER baseline
  projection scenarios (for all skills)
• Unconstrained or SRB Budget Constrained mode
• Account for remaining SRB Debt (applicable to
  CFY)
• Ability to fence-off certain skills SRB Award
  Levels
• Compute maximum additional conversions/reutilizati
  ons to achieve target manning goal
• Extensible modeling framework

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SRB Allocation Tool Main Data

• Published Baseline SKIPPER Model Results
• Current SRB Award Levels by skill (EMC-NEC) and
  zone (A/B/C)
• Estimated number of at-risk (w/in 1 year of EAOS)
  personnel
• Econometric
• Reenlistment Elasticities from NPRST MODCOMP
  tables
• EPA and BA by-LOS or by Zone
• User inputs
• Total SRB Budget and SRB Debt (CFY)
• Target Manning
• Minimum Manning
• Maximum Allowable change in SRB Level

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Basic Model

• Starting point Baseline SKIPPER strength
  projection for end CFY for all relevant EMC-NECs
• Objective minimize the manning gap by zone for
  all skills under consideration
• Prescribe changes to baseline SRB Award Levels
  (related to p(i,a) changes in
• Reenlistment rates for Zone a for strength
  n(i) caused by Zone a SRB Level change
• that result in additional number of personnel
  to retain or separate in CFY
• that minimize the total manning gap for Zone
  A, B and C
• Subject to
• Minimum acceptable manning
• Max allowable changes in SRB Award Levels
• Optional SRB Budget Constraint (less remaining
  SRB CFY Debt)

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General Computational Approach Simple Constraint
Satisfaction Framework

• Constraint Satisfaction Framework chosen as
  alternative to conventional optimization to curb
  computations
• Search nearly sequential
• Search prioritized by combination of Manning and
  User Priorities
• Manning of different skills and zones are
  generally different
• Simplest type of branch and bound approach
• More extensible to future modeling refinements
• Starting point Baseline SKIPPER strength
  projection for end CFY for all relevant EMC-NECs
• Subject to SRB resources and Max allowable
  changes in SRB Levels
• Reduce overmanned skill-zones to target by
  decreasing SRB level(s)
• Achieve minimum acceptable zone manning for all
  skills by increasing SRB level(s) based on
  priority
• Increase SRB level(s) further based on priority
  and manning levels to increase reenlistments to
  achieve projected inventory as close as possible
  to target endstrength
• Compute maximum additional conversions/reutilizati
  ons to (close the remaining gap) to achieve
  target manning goal by skill and zone

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SRB Allocation Tool- Login Page
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SKIPPER Scenario Selection View
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EMC Selection Page
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NEC Selection Page
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Main Results Page
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Unconstrained Results
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Exceeded SRB Budget Results
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Budget Constrained Results
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Conclusions and Recommendations

• SRB Allocation Tool
• Provides quick response modeling capability to
• Explore alternative SRB allocations to achieve
  desired manning goals
• SRB Budget Constrained or Unconstrained modes
• Forecast adjusted manning levels, reenlistments
  and SRB costs
• Easily select combinations of EMCs-NECs to
  include
• Optionally fence-off certain skills SRB Award
  Levels
• Utilizes an easy to understand GUI
• Provides an easily extensible modeling framework
  for future refinements
• Output prescribed SRBs to update SKIPPER baseline
  scenario
• Batch SKIPPER runs for ALNAV rollup
• Explore best fit considering not only SRB, but
  also skill conversions/reutilizations
• Can provide an effective means for SRB Decision
  Support Planning and what-if drills