2'2' Motive techno forces shaping evolution

1
2.2. Motive techno forces shaping evolution
processes in ICT - Microprocessors -
Photonics
2

• A. Moores Law
• Gordon E. Moore. "Cramming more components onto
  integrated circuits," Electronics, volume 38,
  number 8 (19 April, 1965), at http//www.intel.com
  /research/silicon/moorespaper.pdf
• Exponential increase in the number of components
  on a chip
• Doubling of number of transistors on a chip every
  18 months (1980s)
• Doubling of microprocessor power every 18 months
  (1990s)
• Computing power at fixed cost is doubling every
  18 months (1990s)
• Throughput of integrated circuits, in MIPS, will
  doubled every
• 18 months with cost of decrease by 50, and this
  regularity
• will remain correct for several decades.
• (MIPS -millions of instructions per second)
• Reliability
• Power consumption
• Miniaturization (number of transistors per chip)
  
• Terminal devices in the single chips

3
A. Moores Law (Cntd)
1T
1012
256G
64G
1011
DRAMs
16G
1010
4G
1G
109
256M
McKinley
1947 1000 MW
Itanium (Merced)
64M
108
Pentium IV
16M
Transistors per Chip
Pentium III
107
4M
Pentium II
30 min. music
PPC 620
1M
106
Pentium Pro
256k
Source Siemens ICN
i486
Pentium
64k
105
80386
16k
80286
8086
4k
104
1k
Processors

• Intel
• Motorola

2020
4004
103
1970
1990
1980
2000
2010
We can store and process all information.
4
A. Moores Law (Cntd)

• 1988 - 275,000 transistors on the Intel 80386
  chips
• 1992 - 1.4 million transistors on the 80486 SL
  chips
• Pentium, Pentium Pro and Pentium II processor
  families
• 1999 - 28 million transistors (Intel Pentium III
  Xeon and Mobile Pentium III processors)
• 2001 - 42 million transistors (Pentium 4)

5
Evolution of Computer Power/Cost
MIPS per 1000 (1997 Dollars)
1000
Gateway G6-200
PowerMac 8100/80
Gateway-485DX2/55
Power Tower 150e
Macintosh-128K
Mac II
1
ATT Globalyst 600
Commodore 64
IBM PC
Apple II
IBM PS/290
Sun-2
DG Eclipse
CDC 7600
Sun-3
11000
DEC PDP-10
VAX 11/750
IBM 1130
IBM 7090
DEC VAX 11/780
Whirlwind
DEC-KL-10
IBM 704
DG Nova
UNIVAC I
SDS 920
1Mio
ENIAC
IBM 350/75
IBM 7040
Colossus
Burroughs 5000
IBM 1620
IBM 650
Burroughs Class 16
1Bio
Zuse-1
Year
IBM Tabulator
ASCC (Mark 1)
Monroe Calculator
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
6
Prices of 1 Mbit DRAM
150 000 DM
History
Forecast
10 000 DM
800 DM
240 DM
1 gummi bear
1 sheet of paper
60 DM
10 DM
1 post it
1 paperclip
1 DM
26 Pfennig
3 Cent
1 Cent
O,5 Cent
0,1 Cent
1973
1977
1981
1984
1987
1991
1995
1999
2005
2009
2017
2013
Source acc. to Weick, Manfred, ZT IK MK
Expensive functions and applications today will
be cheap tomorrow.
7

• B. Photonic technologies
• Fiber optic cables for long-haul networks
  beginning of
• 70-th
• Main directions of FOC development
• The transition from multimode to single mode
  fiber
• Wavelength changing of the applied spectral
  windows with ?0,85 mkm to ?1,33/1,55 mkm
• The decrease of attenuation in the fiber from
  figures of several dozens of dB/km to 0,2 dB/km

8

• Photonic technologies (Cntd)
• Main requirements grows of network capacity
• Boom growth of traffic, especially data
• Number of factors
• Accelerated development of the Internet
• Commercial applications of graphic and video
  information exchange
• The growth of worldwide business, which leads to
  the growth of worldwide traffic
• New technologies for photonic networks
• SDH/DWDM
• Tbits/s

9
Performance improvements in photonics
Theoretical limit of glass fiber
Fiber Capacity Mbit/skm
1010
Experiment 7 Tbit/s, 50 km
Product 160x10G 80 km
108
4010 G
100 p.y.
162.5 G
106
10 G
70 p.y.
2.5 G
104
565 M
Source ICN M TA Photonics
34 M
140 M
102
Year
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
10
2.3. Mega trends on ICT - Digitalization
- Mobile communications - Internet -
Convergence of services/networks/devices -
Main shifts on ICT
11

• A. Digitalization
• Digitalization of
• Information
• Information processing tools
• Transportation systems
• Transition from analog to digital format
• Analog networks - separate
• Integrated networks - digital
• Convergence in ICT

12
B. Mobile communications
13
Grows of subscribers
2002 Fixed Mobile 1,15 Billion Grows Fixed
2, Mobile 10 (ITU)
14
Grows of fixed and mobile and distribution by
technology
15
Grows of fixed and mobile subscribers
16
Ovum
17
Limitations of 2G systems
18
Evolution of mobile communications
19
C. Internet

• Brief History of the Internet
• 1957 Launch of Sputnik is impetus for U.S. to
  form ARPA (DoD)
• 1965 ARPA sponsors a study Cooperative network
  for
• time-sharing Innovation of packet
  switching
• (D. Devis, UK, P. Baran, US)
• 1969 September 2, launch of first computer
  network
• ARPANET
• 1972 Beginning of E-mail (Tomlinson, US)
• 1974 First article about TCP/IP (Cerf/Kahn)
• 1979 Establishing first research computer
  network (NSF,
• Univ. Wisc., DARPA)

20

• Brief History of the Internet (Cntd)
• 1982 Internet defined as TCP/IP-connected
  network
• 1986 56 kb/s NSFNET created for 5
  supercomputing
• centers
• 1989 Number of Internet nodes breaks 100 000
  IETF
• comes into existence
• 1992 WWW released Number of nodes breaks 1M
• 1995 VoIP comes to the market
• 2001 Number of hosts breaks 300M
• 2002 VoIP has taken away 13 of long-haul
  telephone traffic
  
  

21
The Internet timeline
Number of hosts Number of users

• Reasons for grows
• Windows
• Modems
• Searching tools
• HTL

Commercial Apps
Military/Academic Apps
1965 1970 1975 1980
1985 1990 1995
2000 2005
22
Forecast of the global voice/data traffics
growth
Tbps
6
5
4
3
2
1
Total telephone traffic
International telephone traffic
Source Arthur D. Little, 1999
Data traffic
23
Todays realities
European carriers revenues
European carriers traffic
2004, Total USD 295 billion
Where traffic comes from in 2004
Other 13
24
25
20
Fixed Data 10
Fixed telephony 39
15
Traffic Volume (Tbps)
10
5
2
0.1
Mobile services 38
0
Fixed Data
Fixed telephony
Mobile
Source Blended from IDC, ECTA, Operators
Source IDATE, Mar 2000
24
Total U.S. Internet traffic
Voice Crossover August 2000
Projected at 4/Year
4/Year
2.8/Year
Source Roberts et al., 2001
25

• Internet market maturity
• (TeleGeography Survey, 2005)
• Stabilization of traffic
• Global cross-border internet traffic will grow by
  49 in 2005, down from 103 in 2004
• In the mid-2005 1 Tbit/s
• In 2008 - 2-3 Tbit/s
• Stabilization of prices
• In 2004, backbone access prices around the world
  fell about 50 percent over the previous year
• In 2005 prices fell between 23 and 33 percent,
  and many providers have stated that they have no
  plans to reduce prices further

26
Some issues of Internet traffic

• Most traffic is from corporations (80 estimated)
• Main growth is from corporations
• Last mile has been improving rapidly (1001000
  Mbps)
• Corporate traffic is anti-recessionary
• Move from public networks to private networks
  using Internet for cost reduction (VPN)

27
Some issues of Internet traffic (Cntd)

• - Corporate Internet use hit critical mass in
  2000
• Now need to use the Internet for all business
• Inter-corporate traffic is now mainly over the
  Internet
• Intra-corporate traffic is growing in size
  (E-mail documents)

- Personal traffic is growing but broadband
deployment is slow - Internationally, traffic is
still at the pre-2000 growth rate of 2.8/year
28
Penetration rates of services (US market)
Time to reach 50 mio customers
120 100 80 60 40 20 0
TV (15 Years)
millions of customers
Telephone (90 Years)
Internet (lt5 Years)
Napster18 months
Cable (10 Years)
Radio (40 Years)
Computer
Mobile Phone
1922
1950
1980
1995
Products have an accelerated market penetration.
29
Penetration (in ) of different technologies and
devices
Mobile penetration
Broadband Penetration
Internet penetration
PC penetration
36 50-60 40
5-10 20 40 70
ltlt 5 17 lt5 lt30
ltltlt5
USA Europe Asia
Source Cisco, 2002
30
Mobile vs. fixed Internet penetration in Europe
Mobile and Internet penetration in Western
European countries (YE 2000)
80
AUT
ITA
FIN
NOR
NL
SPA
SWE
LUX
CH
70
UK
DK
POR
Mobile penetration (in )
60
GRE
IRL
GER
FRA
BEL
50
40
0
10
20
30
40
50
Source Siemens
(Fixed) Internet penetration (in )
31
D. Convergence of networks/services/devices
United Network
32
Main shifts on ICT

• TODAY TOMORROW

Packet based
Packet based
Mobile
Connectionless
Mobile
Connectionless
Telephony
IP Apps
IP Apps
Telephony
Circuit based
Circuit based
Connections
Wireline
Connections
Wireline

• Analog Digital Fixed
  Mobile Voice
  Data

CONVERGENCE
33
Main shifts on ICT (Cntd)

TODAY
TOMMOROW
Multifunctional devices with network interfaces
Telephones, PCs, TVs
Voice/data on networks
Data, then MM dominates on networks
Proprietary and specialized networking
Totally open and interoperable networks
PSTN and Internet are separated
Global network of networks
Dedicated applications
Apps designed for universal and independent using
High tariffs for long-distance service
Flat networks with distance- independent tariffs
34
Concluding remarks
Global MM-MS network
After 2010 all information will be digitally
stored and sent via the global network.