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Mark Shafer

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Title: Mark Shafer


1
Update on Activities of the National Integrated
Drought Information System (NIDIS)
1
  • Mark Shafer
  • Director of Climate Services
  • Oklahoma Climatological Survey
  • Norman, Oklahoma

2
2
3
3
NIDIS VISION and GOALS
A dynamic and accessible drought information
system that provides users with the ability to
determine the potential impacts of drought and
the associated risks they bring, and the decision
support tools needed to better prepare for and
mitigate the effects of drought. Public Law
109-430 (Signed by the President December 2006)

(www.drought.gov)
4
NIDIS Objectives
4
  • Creating a drought early warning information
    system
  • Coordinating national drought monitoring and
    forecasting systems
  • Providing an interactive drought information
    clearinghouse and delivery system for products
    and servicesincluding an internet portal and
    standardized products (databases, forecasts,
    Geographic Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc)
  • Designing mechanisms for improving and
    incorporating information to support coordinated
    preparedness and planning

5
The National Integrated Drought Information
SystemManaging Drought as Climate Changes
5
  • The combination of the inherent uncertainty of
    natural variability, plus projections for a
    warmer climate in the 21st century, make early
    warning and adaptation more important than ever
  • NIDIS offers a framework for integration of
    vulnerability and hazard information for planners
    and decision makers

6
Implementation Elements
  • 1. NIDIS Office
  • 2. U.S. Drought Portal
  • 3. Climate Test Beds
  • Integrating data and forecasts
  • 4. Coping with Drought
  • Integrated Impacts and Applications Research,
    Communication
  • 5. NIDIS Early Warning Information System
    Development
  • Pilot Design and Implementation

7
Governance Structure
7
NIDIS Executive Council Co-chairs Director,
NOAA Climate Program Office (or designee)
Director, National Drought Mitigation Center (or
designee)
NIDIS Program Implementation Team
(NPIT) Working-Level Partner Representatives Coord
inate and develop evaluation criteria for all
NIDIS activities including pilot project
selection Chair NPO Director
  • NIDIS Program Office
  • ( Director)
  • Coordinate NIDIS-relevant cross-NOAA
  • and Interagency drought-related activities
  • Develop a national presence for NIDIS
  • (e.g. formal links to National Governors Assn)
  • Participate in GEOSS / IEOS

NIDIS Technical Working Groups Federal, Regional,
State, Tribal and Local Partner Leads Embedded in
national and regional, and local NIDIS
Activities Develop pilot implementation and
transferability criteria Co-Chairs selected by
NPIT
Public Awareness And Education
U.S. Drought Portal
Interdisciplinary Research and Applications
Engaging Preparedness Communities
Integrated Monitoring and Forecasting
Drought Early Warning System Design, Pilots, and
Implementation
8
Western Governors Association NOAA USGS Dept.
of Interior (BoR) U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers USDA (NRCS, ARS, CSREES) NASA Indigenous
Waters Network Regional Climate Centers National
Drought Mitigation Center Association of State
Climatologists Cornell University New Mexico
State University Rutgers University South Dakota
State University University of Oklahoma University
of South Carolina University of Washington The
Weather Channel
PL109-430
www.drought.gov
8
NIDIS Pgm Implementation Team affiliations
9
Governance Structure
9
NIDIS Executive Council Co-chairs Director,
NOAA Climate Program Office (or designee)
Director, National Drought Mitigation Center (or
designee)
NIDIS Program Implementation Team
(NPIT) Working-Level Partner Representatives Coord
inate and develop evaluation criteria for all
NIDIS activities including pilot project
selection Chair NPO Director
  • NIDIS Program Office
  • ( Director)
  • Coordinate NIDIS-relevant cross-NOAA
  • and Interagency drought-related activities
  • Develop a national presence for NIDIS
  • (e.g. formal links to National Governors Assn)
  • Participate in GEOSS / IEOS

NIDIS Technical Working Groups Federal, Regional,
State, Tribal and Local Partner Leads Embedded in
national and regional, and local NIDIS
Activities Develop pilot implementation and
transferability criteria Co-Chairs selected by
NPIT
Public Awareness And Education
U.S. Drought Portal
Interdisciplinary Research and Applications
Engaging Preparedness Communities
Integrated Monitoring and Forecasting
Drought Early Warning System Design, Pilots, and
Implementation
10
U.S. Drought Portalwww.drought.gov
  • Assimilate and quality control data, models, risk
    information, and impacts
  • Drought Monitor, Impact Reporter, Outlook
  • Information tailored for various user communities
  • National in scope, local in detail
  • State-level information links
  • Learn from the pilots for national prototypes
  • New version released in January 2009

11
Implementation at the National Level U.S. Drought
Portal
11
12
Implementation at the National Level U.S. Drought
Portal New Map Viewer
12

13
U.S. Drought Portal New Information
13
Customizable USDM statistics for various spatial
and time scales.

Taking advantage of existing services including
Google Gadgets.
14
Interdisciplinary Research and Applications
  • Foster sustained interactions between research
    community and beneficiaries
  • Linking federal, state drought-relevant research
    programs
  • Compile inventory of existing drought research
  • Assess knowledge gaps
  • Sector and regional stakeholder workshops to
    provide guidance for research priorities
  • Link biophysical measures with economic, ecologic
    and social context
  • Develop consistent methodologies for assessing
    drought impacts
  • Develop sequential critical indicators for
    planning and operations
  • Help characterize uncertainties using if-then
    scenarios

15
Implementation at the National Level Interdiscipli
nary Research and Applications
15
  • NIDIS Knowledge and Service Assessment Workshops
  • Remote Sensing Contributions to Drought
    Monitoring, February 6-7, 2008, Boulder
  • NOAA, USGS, NASA, USDA, universities, state
    climatologists, state-local drought officials
  • Reconciling Projections of Future Colorado River
    Stream Flow, Sept 2007 La Jolla/November 2008
    Las Vegas/February 2009 Seattle
  • NOAA, USGS, CIG, WWA, etc
  • National Status of Drought Early Warning
    Systems, June 17-19, 2008, Kansas City
  • NOAA, USGS, USAID, USDA, USACE, NASA, tribes,
    universities, state government, water managers

16
Integrated Monitoring and Forecasting
  • Multiple federal and state observing systems
  • NOAA/NWS, USDA, USGS, Corps of Engineers, Bureau
    of Reclamation
  • In situ and remote sensing
  • Networks developed largely independently
  • New datasets critical to improved forecasting
  • Soil moisture, sea surface temperatures
  • Ensemble drought prediction, downscaling
  • Develop high resolution observational and
    forecast data bases
  • Real-time observations
  • Data assimilation products
  • Model simulations and forecasts
  • Prototype climate test beds

17
Implementation at the National Level Integrated
Monitoring and Forecasting
17
  • Presentation to the U.S. Drought Monitor Forum,
    Portland OR, October 2007
  • Presentation to the Interstate Council on Water
    Policy (ICWP), New Orleans LA, October 2007
  • Presentation to the Advisory Committee on Water
    Information (ACWI), Subcommittee on Hydrology,
    Washington DC, April 2008
  • Presentation to the North American Drought
    Monitor Forum, Ottawa, Ontario, October 2008
  • Workshop on Soil Moisture and Soil Temperature
    Observations and Applications (USCRN NIDIS),
    Oak Ridge TN, March 3-5, 2009

18
Public Awareness and Education
  • Build upon existing grassroots education and
    awareness programs
  • Example Ag in the Classroom, RISA, agricultural
    extension
  • Develop a central clearinghouse for drought
    materials information
  • Assist with local, state regional programs
  • Coordinate with national organizations
  • Formal and informal education
  • Convey differences in vulnerabilities as well as
    risk
  • Historic and analogue perspectives
  • Develop interdisciplinary education teams

19
Implementation at the National Level Public
Awareness and Education
19
  • Testimony before House Committee on Science
    Technology, Washington DC, April, 2008
  • Drought content for USDA Agriculture in the
    Classroom program
  • Formal NIDIS liaison to Western States Water
    Council
  • Content on Drought Portal

20
Implementation at the National Level Public
Awareness and Education
20
U.S. Drought Portal Education

21
Engaging Preparedness Communities (NIDIS Pilots)
  • Facilitate development of a drought coordinator
    network
  • Each state designate and fund a Drought
    Coordinator as a communication focal point
  • Coordinate collaborative development of critical
    indicators and triggers
  • Help secure funding, develop evaluation criteria,
    and conduct post-drought assessments
  • Drought exercises or drought simulations for risk
    scenarios and generation of alternative options
  • Facilitate the improvement of organizational
    networks

22
NIDIS Early Warning Systems Pilots Selected by
Drought-type and analysis units
Southeast
23
NIDIS PilotsUpper Colorado River Basin
  • Water management issues in a region with growing
    demand
  • Arid region with long-term climate change threats
  • Multi-year droughts recent occurrences (ongoing)
  • First Pilot, launched in 2008

24
NIDIS PilotsSoutheast U.S.
24
  • Institutional issues governing water management
    across state boundaries
  • Southeast US Drought Workshop (Peachtree City,
    GA, April 2008)
  • Overview of Federal Drought Products
  • Overview of State Plans and Triggers What Works
    What is Needed
  • Coastal and Estuarine Issues and Drought
  • Current Long Range Forecast from NOAA
  • Status Fall 2009 scoping workshop

25
NIDIS PilotsOklahoma / Missouri
  • Transition area between semi-arid (west) to
    abundant precipitation (east)
  • Rain-fed agriculture, aquifers, small reservoirs
  • Technology transfer issues
  • Surveys being conducted of drought management
    communication
  • How do they manage drought?
  • What are their sources of information?
  • How do they convey that information
  • Status Planning

26
NIDIS PilotsMontana / Northern Plains
  • Tourism and Recreation
  • Farming and Ranching in a semi-arid area
  • Dependent upon rainfall, snowfall
  • Short-term rapid-onset drought
  • Trans-boundary issues (Canada)
  • Status Pending

27
NIDIS PilotsChesapeake Bay Area
  • Densely-populated urban environment
  • Multiple environmental stressors
  • Low water storage capacity
  • Water quality issues
  • Focus on instream flows
  • Status Pending

28
Implementation at the National Level Engaging
Preparedness Communities - Pilots
28
  • Federal Planning Meeting - NIDIS Pilot for the
    Colorado River Basin, Salt Lake City UT, May 2008
    (NOAA NWS CRBRFC CPC, WR, ESRL USBR USACE
    USGS GCMRC WY WSC NPS USFS)
  • Three categories of drought information users,
    two scales of analysis
  • Large reservoir operations and triggers, full
    basin scale (Reclamation, USGS, NPS, etc)
  • Water supply managers with stake in trans-basin
    diversions, at sub-basin scale Colorado River
    above Kremmling CO (Colorado-Big Thompson
    Project, Northern Colorado Water Conservancy
    District, Colorado River Conservation District,
    Denver Water, etc)
  • Ecosystem recreational resource managers, at
    sub-basin scale - Colorado River above Kremmling
    CO (BLM, Grand County, NPS, USFS, etc)

29
Pilot Implementation Upper Colorado River Basin
29
  • Scoping Workshop for the Upper Colorado River
    Basin NIDIS Pilot, Boulder CO, October 2008
  • Colorado Division of Water Resources (CDWR)
  • Colorado State Climatologist
  • Colorado River Water Conservation District
    (CRWCD)
  • Colorado Water Conservation Board (CWCB)
  • CU Western Water Assessment, CIRES, and CADSWES
  • Denver Water Board
  • Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District
    (NCWCD)
  • Wyoming State Engineer
  • Wyoming State Climatologist
  • Utah State Climatologist
  • Desert Research Institute/WRCC

30
Pilot Implementation Upper Colorado River Basin
30
  • Scoping Workshop for the Upper Colorado River
    Basin NIDIS Pilot, Boulder CO, October 1-2, 2008
  • National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
  • National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC)
  • U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Natural
    Resources Conservation Service
  • U.S. Forest Service (USFS), Region 2
  • U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) - Eastern
    Colorado Area Office, Great Plains Region, Office
    of Policy and Programs, Research and Development
  • U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Colorado Water
    Science Center, Central Region, Grand Canyon
    Monitoring and Research Center
  • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    (NOAA), Earth System Research Laboratory,
    National Centers for Environmental Prediction,
    National Climatic Data Center, National Weather
    Service

31
Pilot Implementation Upper Colorado River Basin
31
  • Year 1 Actions from the Scoping Workshop for the
    Upper Colorado River Basin NIDIS Pilot
  • Build a UCRB community on the NIDIS Drought
    Portal (www.drought.gov)
  • Inventory and assessment of drought indicators
    and triggers presently used in the UCRB
  • Facilitate access to indicator and trigger
    observational data and information products via
    the UCRB community on the NIDIS Drought Portal
  • Perform a monitoring networks gap analysis for
    the UCRB

32
Pilot Implementation Upper Colorado River Basin
32
  • Year 1 Actions from the Scoping Workshop for the
    Upper Colorado River Basin NIDIS Pilot (cont.)
  • Perform a monitoring networks gap analysis for
    the UCRB
  • Point of departure - Western States Watershed
    Study Water Data Report by Federal Agencies for
    WSWC (July 2008)
  • Report authors meeting in Boulder CO, December
    2008 (NWS CRBRFC USDA NRCS State Climatologists
    for UT, WY and CO Wyoming State Engineer WRCC
    USGS WY WSC CWCB NIDIS Program Office)
  • Report section proposals received, report outline
    developed February 2009
  • Completion targeted for October 2009
  • Design an approach for producing a UCRB Drought
    Monitor
  • NOT a downscaling of the USDM, but a custom
    activity of those in the basin
  • Key coordinating role for State Climatologists

33
Pilot Implementation Upper Colorado River Basin
33
  • Year 2 Actions
  • Initiate Colorado Basin Drought Information
    Portal (as a subset of the U.S. Drought Portal)
  • Establish network for ongoing briefings on
    impacts and projections across climate timescales
    (UCRB Drought Monitor)
  • Develop decision support tools for demand
    projections and review of triggering criteria
    (Northern Water, Denver Water, Grand Valley)
  • Feedback into Colorado Basin Drought Monitor
    and Portal, Early Warning System maintenance and
    transfer

34
Pilot Implementation Upper Colorado River Basin
34
  • Year 2 Actions
  • Prototyping Given better data and information
    coordination, would responses have been improved
    for past events? Assess
  • Value of improved information using past
    conditions
  • Responses for projections / scenarios (decadal,
    climate change)
  • Feedback on priorities (e.g. data gaps) to
    Executive Council

35
Pilot Implementation - Upper Colorado River
Basin Interdisciplinary Research and Applications
35
  • Improvements to Water Supply Forecasting
  • Integrate objective climate forecasts into RFC
    Ensemble Streamflow Predictions (ESP)
  • Introduce time-varying potential
    evapotranspiration into ESP water supply
    forecasts
  • Develop USBR operations management model that can
    make use of ESP continuous, probabilistic
    forecast to reckon chance of hitting EIS trigger
    points, instead of single value NOAA/NRCS water
    supply forecasts

36
  • NIDIS offers one framework for developing and
    mainstreaming information services to support
    adaptation strategies as climate varies and
    changes
  • Recent Upcoming
  • CA Drought information needs Feb 09
  • World Water Forum March 09
  • US Drought Portal Assessment May 09
  • Tribal Lands June 09
  • Southeast Scoping Workshop July 09

37
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