Undertaking%20GHG%20abatement%20analysis%20in%20the%20Republic%20of%20Macedonia

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WORKSHOP Combating Climate Change National
Commitments and Activities
Measures for Abatement of GHG Emissions in Energy
Sector T. Bosevski, G. Kanevce, M. Todorovski N.
Krstanovski, A. Causevski
22 March 2002, Skopje
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Activity level kt/year of different sectors in
1998
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GHG Abatement for the Energy Sector - Electricity
Production
Electric power system expansion planning WASP
Wien Automatic System Planning (Electric power
system expansion planning) VALORAGUA
Valorization of water - Portuguese (Simulation of
a mixed hydro-thermal power system used to
enhance the WASP analysis) OPTIM Model
developed by the study team members (Detailed
simulation of a mixed hydro-thermal power system
used to enhance the WASP analysis)
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Basic Data and Existing Plants
Planning period 2001-2030 Electricity demand
7000 GWh, 1267 MW (year 2001) Annual growth
rates 3.75, 3.25 and 2.75 by
decades Simulation type montly basis, three
hydroconditions
Electricity production (year 2000)
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Energy Resources

• Solid fuels
• Suvodol (66 mill. t - status 2001, 10 years)
• Oslomej (14 mill. t - status 2001, 12 years)
• Additional reserves
• Suvodol (second layer, about 20 mill. t, there
  is no mining project)
• Brod-Gneotino (surface layer, about 40 mill. t,
  there is no mining project)

Liquid fuels Refinery OKTA (2.5 mill. t crude
oil/year) Oil pipeline Skopje-Thessalonike
Natural gas Gas pipeline (800 mill. m3/year),
possible extension to 1200 mill.
m3/year Renewable resouces Geothermal (80 GWh
/year) Wood (average 930 000 m3/year , 3000 GWh)
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New Plants
Hydro plants under construction Kozjak Matka
2 Hydro plants candidates HYD1 Galiste
Cebren HYD2 B. Most, Veles
Gradec Extensions of the existing
mines Reconstruction of existing thermal power
plants (during extended scheduled
maintenance) Thermal plants candidates CCC 180
- cogeneration combined cycle, 180 MW, 60
eff. CC 270 - combined cycle, 270 MW, 57.6
eff. AP 600 - advanced nuclear plant, 600 MW,
33.4 eff.
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Electric Power System Expansion Scenarios
Baseline scenario Business as usual First
mitigation scenario more efficient use of the
hydropotential (conversion of classical into
pump-storage hydroplants ) Second mitigation
scenario pump-storage hydroplants and
introduction of mixed fuel in the existing
thermal plants Bitola and Oslomej Revision of the
second mitigation scenario update of the initial
conditions and main assumptions (stagnation of
the consumption, study period 2003-2030, annual
growth rates 3.5, 3 2.5 by decades, two-year
delay of Kozjak Matka 2, three-year delay of
CCC 180)
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Optimal Expansion Plans
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Electricity production by fuel types (Baseline
scenario)
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Electricity production by fuel types (Revised
second mitigation scenario)
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Lignite consumption for electricity production
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Integral lignite consumption for electricity
production
182 mill. t
129 mill. t
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Residual fuel oil consumption for electricity
production
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Natural gas consumption for electricity production
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Equivalent CO2 emissions from electricity
production by fuel types (Baseline scenario)
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Equivalent CO2 emissions from electricity
production by fuel types (Revised second
mitigation scenario)
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Specific CO2-equivalent emissions from
electricity production
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Abatement Costs
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Heat Production
Primary-energy sources consumption for heat
production
Contribution of different primary-energy sources
for annual heat production in Macedonia in 2000
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Heat Production Scenarios
All scenarios are based on the finding from the
corresponding electricity production
scenarios The forecasts for fuel consumption were
made following the previous studies (average
annual growth rate 3.7) Natural gas was given
priority taking into account the limit of 1,200
mill. m3 per year. It was assumed that the large
heat production units will alternatively use
natural gas or residual fuel oil.
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Primary-energy sources consumption for heat
production
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Natural gas consumption for electricity and heat
production
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Comparison of the Heat Production Scenarios
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Equivalent CO2 Emissions from Heat Production by
Fuel Types
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Transport
Fuel consumption
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Baseline Scenario for the Road Transport
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Baseline Scenario for the Air Transport
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Mitigation Scenarios for the Transport Sector
Road transport - Vehicles efficiency
improvement - Reduction of vehicle-kilometers Ra
il transport - Completion of the
electrification Air transport - Improvement of
the efficiency - Improvement of ariport
operation (reduction of waiting time for
landing approval)
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Total CO2 Emissions for the Transport Sector
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Conclusions
Electricity production - More efficient use
of the hydropotential (pump-storage hydroplants)
- Introduction of liquid fuel in the existing
thermal plants which yield significant
reduction of CH4 emissions - The new thermal
power plants using natural gas are with high
efficiency - Keeping the fossil fuels as a
dominant the nuclear plant is postponed to the
year 2024 Heat - Replacement of the old
heating plants on liquid fuel with a new ones on
natural gas Transport - Promotion of cleaner
and more energy efficient vehicle applying
variety of tax, custom and regulatory
measures - Improvement of the road
infrastructure