Ditty Project' Steering Comittee' Olhao Current Status of Activities University of Murcia

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Ditty Project. Steering Comittee. OlhaoCurrent
Status of ActivitiesUniversity of Murcia
September 2004
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UNIVERSITY OF MURCIA GENERAL ASPECTS
Work progress February-July 2004

• Coordination of work in the Mar Menor site
  between workpackages and with the other DITTY
  partners. Attendance of meetings.
• Work focused in WP4, WP5 and WP6 tasks during
  this period
• Re-establishment of contacts with Confederación
  Hidrográfica del Segura (CHS) to involve this
  institution as informal end-user of DITTY in Mar
  Menor
• Dissemination of some of the first results being
  obtained under the DITTY project in Workshops and
  Conferences (e.g. International Wetlands
  Conference, Utrecht)

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WP4. INTEGRATED MODELLING

• Since february 2004, several advances carried out
  regarding
• Hydrological model
• Integrated watershed model
• Lagoon model

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WP4. INTEGRATED MODELLING
Hydrological model

• Specific hydrological model for the Mar Menor
  watershed.
• Three related components to fit the
  characteristics of the watershed and the
  variability of rainfall
• Headwater component. 0D. Event-based.
• Lowland component. 2D, spatially distributed. 25
  m. cell size. Event-based.
• Daily component. 2D / semi-distributed. 43
  sub-basins. Accounts for irrigation, water
  budget
• Components connected following an input-output
  approach

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WP4. INTEGRATED MODELLING
Hydrological model

• Outputs
• Per each sub-basin
• Daily water volumes in watercourses
• Daily overland flow
• Daily deep percolation into aquifer

Inputs to integrated watershed model
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WP4. INTEGRATED MODELLING
Hydrological model

• Work progress since February focused on
• Development of an R language code
• Integration of the R language code with a GIS
  (GRASS) and a database (PostgreSQL)
• Preparation of data and maps required and not
  available yet, (detailed land-use at required
  spatial resolution through Remote Sensing, data
  on biomass and LAI for relevant land-uses and
  vegetation types after extensive review)
• All languages and tools are open source under
  Linux
• At present, the hydrological model is practically
  finished and ready to start the hydrological
  simulations

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WP4. INTEGRATED MODELLING
Hydrological model

• The code developed includes several stages
• 1. Load of libraries
• 2. Incorporation of basic GIS layers to R
• 3. Daily modelling
• Query of daily data to the climatic database
• Calculation of incident radiation and a
  cloudiness factor
• Interpolation of variables using regresive models
  and interpolation
• Calculation of water budget variables
• Extraction of effective rainfall for each
  sub-basin
• 4. Application of GUH (Geomorphological Unit
  Hydrograph) model
• 5. Erosion model, implementing the MUSLE model

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WP4. INTEGRATED MODELLING
Integrated watershed model

• Developed in a completely new basis
  (semi-distributed structure, new model sectors).
  Essentially a new model
• Focus on a long-term time horizon (several
  decades)
• Run on a daily basis
• The semi-distributed structure considers 14
  units, corresponding to the sub-basins of the
  most important ramblas, such as Albujón, Miranda,
  Miedo, Matildes, Beal and Carrasquilla.
• For each unit, the basic model sectors (land-use,
  nutrients, wastewater, wetlands, groundwater) are
  replicated
• Formulation of equations in each model sector in
  progress

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WP4. INTEGRATED MODELLING
Integrated watershed model
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WP4. INTEGRATED MODELLING
Integrated watershed model
Land use sector

• Remote Sensing and image classification analysis
  carried out to quantify the area of each each
  land-use per sub-basin and the trends in land-use
  change during the last years

• Two images per year (summer and winter) used

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WP4. INTEGRATED MODELLING
Integrated watershed model
Land use sector

• Information obtained used to conceptualise and
  parameterise the land-use sector

• Land uses considered
• - natural vegetation
• - dryland
• - irrigated-tree crops
• - open-air horticultural crops
• - greenhouses

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WP4. INTEGRATED MODELLING
Integrated watershed model
Wetlands sector

• Located in a boundary between the watershed and
  the lagoon
• Necessary to identify and quantify this role and
  its linkage with the rest of the watershed

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WP4. INTEGRATED MODELLING
Integrated watershed model
Wetlands sector

• Analysis of the relationships between land use
  and the hydrological dynamics at landscape level
  (e.g. total area of irrigated lands) and the
  status of wetlands associated to the Mar Menor
  shore
• Remote Sensing and image classification
  techniques.
• 3 wetlands Carmolí, Playa de la Hita and Lo
  Pollo. 1984 - 2000
• Characteristics analysed
• Total area of wetland
• Active nutrient removal area
• Size of each habitat
• Length of watercourses inside the wetland

Key for removal functionality of wetlands
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WP4. INTEGRATED MODELLING
Integrated watershed model
Wetlands sector

• Close relationship between the area of irrigated
  lands and the size of hygrophilous habitats
  (reedbeds and saltmarshes)

• Information used to develop the wetlands sector
  and its linkages with the rest of the model (land
  use, water table)

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WP4. INTEGRATED MODELLING
Integrated watershed model
Nutrients, urban uses and groundwater sectors

• Extensive review on fertilisers, urban uses and
  wastewater, re-use for irrigation, groundwater
  desalination

• Development in progress
• Parameters and equations being defined
• To be finished within next 2 months

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WP4. INTEGRATED MODELLING
Lagoon model

• Developed as a 0D, aggregated model
• Lon-term approach, starting in 1980, focusing on
  trends. It runs on a daily basis
• Nutrient cycles in water column and in sediments
• Phytoplankton, zooplankton, jellyfish and oyster
  dynamics. Also dynamics of oxygen, water
  temperature and light intensity. Inputs from
  watershed and exchange with Mediterranean
• Implemented in Vensim software
• Model development finished. Calibration has just
  started

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WP4. INTEGRATED MODELLING
Lagoon model

• Energy flow through the food web described in
  nitrogen terms, since it is the limiting factor
  in the Mar Menor
• The formulation of main processes and
  compartments as well as some relevant parameters
  have been taken from literature and adapted to
  our ecosystem
• The present model is largely based on Chapelle et
  al. (2000) and Plus et al. (2003) for the
  geochemical cycles and most of the biological
  part
• Jellyfish submodel adapted from Lancelot et al.
  (2002)
• Sediment and oxygen submodels adapted from
  Chapelle (1995)
• Water temperature and light intensity adapted
  from P. Duarte

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WP4. INTEGRATED MODELLING
Lagoon model
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WP4. INTEGRATED MODELLING
Lagoon model

• 16 state variables
• 1 water temperature
• 3 nutrients in water column
• 3 nutrients in sediments
• 1 OM in water column
• 2 OM in sediments
• 1 phytoplankton
• 1 zooplankton
• 3 jellyfish
• 1 oysters

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WP4. INTEGRATED MODELLING
Lagoon model
Jellyfish compartment

• An small population of Aurelia aurita was the
  only presence of jellyfish in Mar Menor
• Cotylorhiza tuberculata and Rhizostoma pulmo
  developed the first massive bloom in summer 1993,
  recurrent every year (40 millions ind.). Now
  jellyfish are the most conspicuous organisms in
  the lagoon

• Aurelia aurita, equations from Lancelot (2003)
• Omnivorous R. pulmo and C. tuberculata, equations
  of the omnivorous Pelagia noctiluca from Lancelot
  (2003)
• C. tuberculata has endosymbiotic dinoflagellates.
  Key role in the proliferation through the
  assimilation of dissolved nutrients and the
  translocation of the carbon fixed to the host.
  The picophytoplancton equations from Chapelle et
  al. (2000) were used to simulate nutrients
  assimilation by the endosymbiotic dinoflagellates

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WP4. INTEGRATED MODELLING
Next steps

• Integrated watershed model expected to be
  completed within next 2 months
• Calibration of lagoon model expected to be
  completed within 2 months
• Structural validation tests applied to the
  watershed and the lagoon models by end of
  December 2004
• During the last month of WP4 work (January 2005),
  both models will be coupled (task 4.3) to assess
  the effects of river basin fluxes into the Mar
  Menor lagoon
• Sensitiviy analysis will be carried out in
  January 2005, to determine the model sensitivity
  to the uncertainty and variability of the most
  relevant parameters and forcing functions, such
  as the rainfall regime
• The feasibility of implementing an hydrodinamic
  model for Mar Menor (COHERENS?) is being analysed

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WP4. INTEGRATED MODELLING
Links with other WPs

• Once the coupled models are ready, they will be
  used to carry out the required scenario analysis
  under WP6.
• The priority scenarios according to end-users
  (CHS) are being taken into account
• The appropriate variables and indicators included
  in the model, so the effects of selected
  scenarios can be fully explored
• Links with WP7. Several socio-economical
  variables and parameters are being included in
  the integrated watershed model, such as the
  social expectations about water resources, the
  relative profitability of relevant crops and land
  uses and the resident and seasonal population in
  the Mar Menor area

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WP5. COMPARISON ANALYSIS

• LOICZ methodology
• Selected year 2002 after analysis on data
  availability
• Required data for lagoon/adjacent sea being
  obtained
• To be applied once simulation rus from watershed
  are available, during the next few months
• Comparison approaches and models
• Preliminary analysis of the feasibility of
  applying the POL and SWAT models to the Mar Menor
  watershed
• The availability of data (hourly rainfall series)
  required to apply the POL model is being checked

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WP5. COMPARISON ANALYSIS

• Next steps
• Application of the LOICZ methodology for year
  2002, expected by December 2004, when simulation
  runs from the integrated watershed model are
  available
• Possible application of the POL /SWAT model
  depending on available data, to compare with
  results obtained with the Mar Menor hydrological
  model
• Extension of the application of the IFREMER
  scheme to the Mar Menor site adding recently
  obtained datasets

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WP6. SCENARIO ANALYSIS

• In last June, the Confederación Hidrográfica del
  Segura (CHS), the institution with
  responsibilities in water management, was
  involved as the (informal) end-user of DITTY
  project in the Mar Menor site.
• This has allowed to speed up the work under WP6
  regarding scenario analysis.
• In July, a first meeting with CHS was held to
  discuss the scenarios which should be analysed in
  the Mar Menor site
• Outcomes
• Definition of scenarios with a potential interest
  in the Mar Menor site. Refer to several land-use
  changes and management options in the Mar Menor
  watershed, in the context of the new
  requirements under the WFD
• Selection of the priority scenarios to be
  analysed under WP6, according to the points of
  interest and needs of CHS
• Detailed discussion and overall characterisation
  of such priority scenarios, which will be further
  developed under WP6

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WP6. SCENARIO ANALYSIS

• The scenarios which a greatest interest are those
  related with the main socio-economic activities
  (agriculture and tourism) or the ecological state
  of the lagoon and its associated assemblages and
  biodiversity, whose conservation state, according
  to the current legal status, must be preserved.
• These aspects (agriculture, tourism and
  environmental value) are particularly linked
  through the load of nutrients into the lagoon
• The scenarios refer to boundary conditions
  factors exogenous to the system but that affect
  its overall behaviour. In many cases such
  scenarios deal with different socio-economic
  policies and management options, although they
  can also include other situations such as the
  climatic change.
• There are factors which are not part of any
  specific scenario but that constitute the key
  effects or processes of the system behaviour and
  that which will be affected by any scenario. e.g.
  nutrient loads, summer jellyfish blooms

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WP6. SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Next steps and links with other WPs

• Scenarios further developed in collaboration with
  end-users. Indicators will be defined to
  synthetically describe results obtained,
  following the DPSIR scheme regarding the state,
  impacts and responses
• Integrated approach with the help of the models.
  Effects and interactions of combined scenarios
  (groundwater desalination-climate change
  scenarios from IPCC re-use of agricultural
  drainages-optimisation of wetlands role for
  nutrients removal)
• Close link between WP4 and WP6. Models being
  developed taking into account the priority
  scenarios in the Mar Menor site. Particular
  attention to the effects of those scenarios on
  the long-term ecological state of the Mar Menor
  lagoon eutrophication process, the water quality
  and the jellyfish blooms
• Links with WP7, regarding the assessment of the
  socio-economic valuation of costs and benefits of
  the policy-options associated to each scenario

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WP6. SCENARIO ANALYSIS

• DRIVING FORCES AND IMPACTS FOLLOWING THE DPSIR
  SCHEME

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WP6. SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Scenarios with potential interest

• 1. Agricultural intensification
• 2.- Desalination of groundwater
• 3.- Application of a Good Farming Practices Code
• 4.- Desalination and re-use of agricultural
  drainage in irrigation
• 5.- Urban and tourist development around the
  lagoon
• 6.- Improvement of the wastewater treatment
  plants
• 7.- Optimisation of wetlands for nutrients
  removal
• 8.- Climatic change

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WP6. SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Priority scenarios

• 1. Desalination of groundwater. Salty wastewater
  from desalination plants with high concentrations
  of nutrients are generated and spilled into the
  complex Mar Menor-associated wetlands. Depends on
  water availability (droughts, Tagus-Segura water
  transfer)
• 2. Desalination and re-use of agricultural
  drainage in irrigation. CHS carried hydraulic
  works to collect part of the agricultural
  drainages. The water will be pumped to a
  desalination plant, after which it will be
  re-used for irrigation. Assessment of the impact
  of this project on the reduction of the overall
  loading of nutrients into the lagoon
• 3. Improvement of the wastewater treatment
  plants. Because of the lack of integration among
  policies, the urban and tourist new developments
  are not considered in measures to improve the
  management of wastewater. Required an integrated
  analysis on the impact of the urban pollution
  reaching the lagoon
• 4. Optimisation of wetlands for nutrients
  removal. Located along the boundary between the
  lagoon and the watershed. Key element for
  nutrients removal. It will be assessed the
  potential impact of optimisation of this role

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WP7. SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

• Some relevant socio-economic variables, already
  considered and included in the integrated
  watershed model in the land-use and urban sectors
  (relative profitability of main crops and land
  uses, resident and seasonal population...)
• The start of tasks 7.1 (Impacts identification)
  and 7.2 (Stakeholder analysis) was delayed, so
• There was an end-user institution
• Relevant scenarios were defined according to
  end-userss points of interest
• Main management options were defined, so the
  valuation of relevant socio-economic impacts and
  benefits and the gainers and losers (stakeholder
  analysis) associated to each management option
  could be fully explored
• However, a preliminary identification of main
  stakeholders in the Mar Menor site has been
  carried out

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WP7. SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Preliminary identification of stakeholders

• Main socio-economic activities constitute the
  first basis to identify some of the most relevant
  stakeholders in the Mar Menor site
• Agriculture and urban-tourist activities are the
  most relevant ones from an economic point of
  view. Both are intensive and increasing.
• Fishing in the lagoon, on the contrary, are
  carried out on a small scale and a traditional
  way. However, fishing generates 300 direct jobs.
  There is not aqua-culture nor shellfish farming
  inside the lagoon
• Agriculture and the urban-tourist activities
  generate impacts on the environment (landscape
  values, ecological state of the lagoon,
  biodiversity), which might be considered as
  environmental externalities, but also crossed
  effects among socio-economic activities,
  connected through the environment, which generate
  direct economic costs on other activities

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WP7. SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Preliminary identification of stakeholders
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WP7. SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Preliminary identification of stakeholders

• Preliminary meetings in the framework of the CAMP
  project with stakeholders representing
• Tourist agents
• building and housing agents
• yachting harbours
• agricultural trades
• fishing association
• green groups
• local citizen associations
• Most of stakeholders focus on specific problems
  affecting their own sectors and a common
  understanding is lacking
• Many stakeholders are aware of some worrying
  issues (management of wastewater) while others
  remained mostly unperceived.

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WP7. SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Next steps

• Identification of the main economic effects
  associated to the selected priority scenarios
• Detailed analysis of stakeholders for each
  priority scenario
• Cost-benefit analysis for each management option
  associated to the priority scenarios