ASIA-PACIFIC FORESTRY SECTOR OUTLOOK STUDY

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ASIA-PACIFIC FORESTRY SECTOR OUTLOOK STUDY

• CTS Nair
• Chief Economist

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STRUCTURE OF THE PRESENTATION

• Objectives
• Implementation
• Where are we now?
• General outlook

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OBJECTIVES

• Assess the changes in the forest sector and how
  it is responding to the needs of society.
• Analyze what is likely to happen by 2020 under
  different scenarios.
• Identify priorities and strategies that help to
  address emerging opportunities and challenges.

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IMPLEMENTATION

• Sub-regional outlook reports
• Regional outlook report

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WHERE ARE WE NOW?

• Most country outlook papers and 17 thematic
  studies completed.
• Half way through drafting regional and
  sub-regional reports.
• Meeting of the Scientific Committee to review the
  draft regional and sub-regional reports scheduled
  in the first week of June 2009.
• Finalization of regional and sub-regional reports
  by September 2009.

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GENERAL OUTLOOK

• Drivers of change and their implications.
• Probable scenarios.
• Broad patterns of change in the forest sector.

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DRIVERS OF CHANGE

• Demography
• Economic changes
• Policy and institutional developments
• Environmental changes
• Science and technology

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THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY

• How long will the current down-turn will last and
  when the recovery will start.
• By early 2010 the World would have forgotten
  about the 2008-2009 recession and it is all
  business as usual scenario
• Continued uncertainty on the economic front
  characterised by very low growth rates.

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DIFFERING PATHWAYS OF DEVELOPMENT

• Developed economies
• No major changes expected
• Emerging economies
• Enormous uncertainties
• Low and middle income land/ forest dependent
  economies
• Continued tensions on the forest frontier -
  Deforestation and degradation.

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OUTLOOK

• Forest cover
• Some gains, but probably more losses
• Forest degradation will remain a major problem in
  the more densely populated regions
• Wider adoption of sustainable forest management
  
• A long way to go.

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OUTLOOK

• Wood products
• Increasing demand for wood products
• Significant increase in Asia-Pacifics share in
  production and trade
• Wood energy
• Some increase in the medium term, but could
  decline in the long term
• New bioenergy resources and their implications

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OUTLOOK

• Environmental services
• Continued demand for environmental services
• Ecotourism

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• THANK YOU