BIO-FUELS

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BIO-FUELS

• Guilherme Leite da Silva Dias
• Joaquim José Martins Guilhoto
• Department of Economics, FEA
• University of São Paulo

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Unsustainable growth cycle?
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Unsustainable growth cycle?
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Unsustainable growth cycle?
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Unsustainable growth cycle?
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Unsustainable growth cycle?
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Biofuels Food
Gás Petróleo Carvão Nuclear Hídrica Biomassa
A oferta de energia cresceu vinte vezes entre
1850 e 2000.Combustíveis fósseis representavam 80
por cento do total em 2000 (Holdren,2007)
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Biofuels Food
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Biofuels Food
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Biofuels Food
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Biofuels Food
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Is there a common ground for biofuels ?
Rising Food Costs
Global Warming
Energy Crisis
different answers from different countries ..
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How much should be paid for the raw material of a
bio-fuel?
Answer depends on the countrys liquid fuel price
policy
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How much should be paid for the raw material of a
bio-fuel?
July 2007, in Germany
Pump average price of diesel was US 1,62 per
liter (current exchange rate)
Assuming that the highest share for vegetable oil
cost is 72 of pump price in order to warrant a
good profit for industry and retailer,
Highest price paid for soybean oil should be US
1,27 per kg. (0,92 kg of vegetable oil for 1
liter of biodiesel).
US 1270 per metric ton of vegetable oil is not
far from the future price in CBOT soon after the
northern hemisphere harvest.
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Source of Data

• OECD Input-Output Matrices

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Countries Years

• Argentina - 1997
• Brazil - 2000
• China - 2000
• India 1998/99
• USA - 2000
• France - 2000
• Germany - 2000
• Japan - 2000

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Sectors
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Sectors
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Imports X Domestic Output
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Value Added
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Total Output
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Value Added Total Output
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Output Multipliers
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Output Multipliers
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Output Multipliers
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Output Multipliers
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Output Multipliers
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Output Multipliers
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Output Multipliers
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Output Multipliers
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Output Multipliers
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Output Multipliers
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Output Multipliers
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Pure Linkages
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Coke, Ref. Petroleum Nuclear Fuel
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Energy in Final Demand
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Energy in Intermediate Consumption
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Energy in Total Output
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Food in Final Demand
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Food in Intermediate Consumption
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Food in Total Output
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Transport in Final Demand
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Transport in Intermediate Consumption
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Transport in Total Output
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Disposable Domestic Value Added
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Value Added Relations
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Value Added Relations
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International Trade
Bilateral Trade Agreements, seems to be more
adequate than a multilateral approach.
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Final Comments