Greenhouse Effect

1
Greenhouse Effect
Greenhouse Effect U.S. tops in 2004 greenhouse
gas emissions By Reuters story last modified
Fri Jun 02 172842 PDT 2006 Many rich nations'
emissions of greenhouse gases rose in 2004, led
by a U.S. rebound to record highs after a dip
since President George W. Bush took office in
2001, according to data released on Friday. The
figures, submitted by 33 governments to the U.N.
Climate Secretariat in Bonn, Germany, showed that
emissions of heat-trapping carbon dioxide, widely
blamed for global warming, rose to 15.1 billion
tons in 2004 from 14.5 billion in 1990. Several
nations, especially Russia, where smokestack
emissions have plunged since the collapse of the
Soviet Union, have yet to submit figures for 2004
so a full overview of industrial nations'
emissions is not yet possible. Still, the data
indicate that many nations will struggle to meet
goals set by the United Nations' Kyoto Protocol
to cut emissions of heat-trapping gases--mainly
from power plants, factories and cars--by 5.2
percent below 1990 levels by 2008-12. Emissions
by the United States, the world's main source of
greenhouse gases but which did not agree to the
Kyoto Protocol, rose by 1.7 percent in 2004 from
2003 to 7.07 billion tons and eclipsed a previous
peak of 6.98 billion in 2000.
http//news.com.com/U.S.topsin2004greenhouseg
asemissions/2100-11395_3-6079611.html
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Greenhouse Effect
Greenhouse Effect U.S. tops in 2004 greenhouse
gas emissions (Cont) "Total U.S. emissions have
risen by 15.8 percent from 1990 to 2004," the
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said in its
submission. Bush pulled out of Kyoto in 2001,
saying it would cost U.S. jobs and wrongly
excluded developing nations from its 2012 target.
But the United States is a party to the U.N.'s
broader 1992 climate convention, which aims to
limit global warming. Many scientists say that a
build-up of emissions is raising temperatures and
could bring catastrophic changes including more
heat waves, droughts, and melting ice caps that
could raise world sea levels by almost a meter by
2100. Of the Kyoto backers, 17 of 30
industrialized countries were exceeding their
targets by just over 300 million tons in
2004. On the positive side, however, the other
13 were ahead by more than 600 million
tons--highlighting what some analysts say was a
flaw in the green pact, giving over-generous
targets to former communist states. Among Kyoto
supporters, Spain was about 48 percent above 1990
levels and Portugal, Greece, Canada and Ireland
were all at least 20 percent higher.
http//news.com.com/U.S.topsin2004greenhouseg
asemissions/2100-11395_3-6079611.html
3
Greenhouse Effect
Greenhouse Effect U.S. tops in 2004 greenhouse
gas emissions (Cont) Overall emissions in the
15 longest-standing members of the European Union
edged up 0.2 percent in 2004 overall from 2003 to
4.24 billion tons. Overall, they were 1.1 percent
below 1990 levels. At U.N. climate talks in
Montreal last year, U.S. climate negotiator
Harlan Watson had pointed to Washington's success
in cracking down under Bush."Look at the
data--the United States has done better in the
first three years of the Bush administration in
addressing greenhouse gas emissions than the
EU...the U.K., France, Germany," he
said. Canada's new conservative government said
last month that its Kyoto goal was "unachievable"
since the country was 35 percent above target and
27 percent above 1990 levels.Japan was 7 percent
above its 1990 emissions levels in 2004, a
difference of 83 million tons compared to its
Kyoto target of a 6 percent fall.
http//news.com.com/U.S.topsin2004greenhouseg
asemissions/2100-11395_3-6079611.html
4
Greenhouse Gases Climate
Science Concepts Definition Radiation
Budget Shortwave Transmission Longwave
Absorption
Greenhouse Gases Greenhouse
Effect Changes Water Vapor Carbon
Dioxide Methane Nitrous Oxide CFCs Ozone
The Earth System (Kump, Kastin Crane) Chap.
1 (pp. 2, 4-5, 41-42, 44, 46-48)
5
Greenhouse Effect
http//www.igpp.lanl.gov/Climate_Images/Climate13.
gif
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Greenhouse Effect
Solar and Earth-Emitted Radiation Absorption by
Atmospheric Gases
Atmosphere is transparent to most of Suns
emitted radiation wavelengths
Atmosphere absorbs most of Earths emitted
radiation wavelengths
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Greenhouse Effect
Greenhouse Effect Earth's atmosphere is
transparent to solar shortwave radiation, i.e.,
allows most of solar radiation to penetrate to
the surface Earth's atmosphere is opaque to
Earth's longwave radiation, i.e., absorbs most
longwave radiation Result of Greenhouse
Effect Venus Earth Mars Surface
Pressure (Relative to Earth) 90 1.0 0.007 Main
Greenhouse gt90 CO2 0.04 CO2 gt80
CO2 Gases 1.4 H2O Temperature (No
Greenhouse) -46C -18C -57C (Greenhouse) 477C
15C -47C Difference 523C 33C 10C
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Greenhouse Gases
Changes in Greenhouse Gases Since
1850 Concentrations of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere have risen dramatically in this
century
EOS, 1999 Climate Change and Greenhouse
Gases.T.S. Ledley, E.T. Sundquist, S.E. Schwartz,
D.K. Hall, J.D. Fellows and T.L. Killeen. 80, p.
453.
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Greenhouse Gases
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2004 U.S.
greenhouse gas emissions in 2004 (million
metric tons and percentage) - Metric tonne
(abbreviated as ton) is a weight equivalent of
1000 kg gt About 2205 lbs Other CO2 are from
non-combustion sources
Emissions of greenhouse gases in the United
States 2004. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of
Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.
DOE/EIA-0573(2004) - ftp//ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/oia
f/1605/cdrom/pdf/ggrpt/057304.pdf
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Greenhouse Gases
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Changes CO2
emissions changes from 1990 to 2004 indexed
using 1990 CO2 emissions per unit Gross
Domestic Product have fallen relative to 1990
CO2 emissions per capita are above 1990
levels. Increasing population growth and rising
CO2 emissions per capita have resulted in
increased aggregate CO2 emissions per year
from 1990 to 2004.
Emissions of greenhouse gases in the United
States 2004. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of
Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.
DOE/EIA-0573(2004) - ftp//ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/oia
f/1605/cdrom/pdf/ggrpt/057304.pdf
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Greenhouse Gases
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Changes
(Cont) CO2 emissions changes from 1990 to
2004 indexed using 1990 All sector CO2
emissions have increased since 1990 except for
1990-1991 when transportation and industrial
sectors decreased because of an economic
recession and higher oil prices following Iraqi
invasion of Kuwait Industrial sector has
decreased since 1998 Decrease in residential
sector is ascribed mainly to a 3.5 drop in
natural gas use because of warmer weather that
reduced heating degree-days by 5.9
Emissions of greenhouse gases in the United
States 2004. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of
Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.
DOE/EIA-0573(2004) - ftp//ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/oia
f/1605/cdrom/pdf/ggrpt/057304.pdf
12
Greenhouse Gases
Not All Greenhouse Gases Are Equal The Global
Warming Potential (GWP) of a greenhouse gas is
defined as the ratio of the time-integrated
radiative forcing from the instantaneous release
of 1 kg of that substance relative to that of 1
kg of a reference gas. The reference gas used is
CO2.
Global Warming Potentials (GWP 100 Year Time
Horizon) Gas Lifetime GWP CO2 50-200 1 CH4
9-15 21 N2O 120 310 HFC-23 264 11,700 HFC-32
5.6 650 HFC-125 32.6 2,800 HFC-134a 14.6 1,300
HFC-143a 48.3 3,800 HFC-152a 1.5 140 HFC-227ea 3
6.5 26,300 HFC-4310mee 17.1 1,300
The methane GWP includes the direct effects and
those indirect effects due to the production of
tropospheric/stratospheric water vapor. The
indirect effect due to the production of CO2 is
not included.
http//yosemite.epa.gov/oar/ globalwarming.nsf/Uni
queKeyLookup/ RAMR69V528/File/05executivesummary.
pdf
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Greenhouse Gases
Water Vapor (H2O) Primary greenhouse
gas Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Increased 10 since
1958 25 since early 19th century Sources -
80 of emissions from fossil fuel - 20 from
burning and decay in deforestation process
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Greenhouse Gases
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Temperature and CO2
Derived from Antarctic Ice Cores
Local (Antarctic) Temperature Difference from
Modern Temperature (C)
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
-8
-10
-10
300
300
280
280
260
260
CO2 (ppm)
240
240
220
220
200
200
180
180
0
40
80
120
160
Age (kyrs BP)
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Greenhouse Gases
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Atmospheric CO2
http//www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/slides/slideset/15/
15_300_slide.html
Vostok, Antarctica
Siple Station, West Antarctica
Mauna Loa (Annual)
Carbon Dioxide Concentration (ppm)
Year
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Greenhouse Gases
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Atmospheric CO2
Siple Station, West Antarctica
Mauna Loa (Annual)
Carbon Dioxide Concentration (ppm)
Year
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Greenhouse Gases
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Mauna Loa, HI 19 32' N,
155 34' W, 3,397 altitude CO2 Concentration
(ppmv)
2002
http//cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-mlo.htm
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Greenhouse Gases
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Note change in time -
annual cycle Note latitudinal variation
http//gaw.kishou.go.jp/wdcgg.html
ppm
370
340
80N
Latitude
EQ
2000
Year
80S
1984
370
335
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Greenhouse Gases
AVHRR Vegetation Index Global distribution
of vegetation - Red and near- infrared
- combined for single image - Healthy
vegetation appears green and arid areas
look brown.
February 1992 September 1992
http//daac.gsfc.nasa.gov/CAMPAIGN_DOCS/LAND_BIO/E
d_Autumn_Illustration.html
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Greenhouse Gases
AVHRR Vegetation Index Global 1982-1998
Vegetation Index
http//www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Observatory/
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Greenhouse Gases
Phytoplankton Bloom Chlorophyll - Red most
Blue least
Jan 2004
Apr 2004
Jul 2004
Oct 2004
http//oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi/level3.pl? DAY
20Oct2004PERTYPmachlRRW16
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Greenhouse Gases
CO2 National/Region Emissions 1995 versus
projected 2035 Note change in
distribution Note almost doubling of total
release U.S. CO2 Emissions and Source
http//www.epa.gov/reg3artd/images/warm.jpg
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Greenhouse Gases
CO2 Per Capita Emissions Note - USA is
largest - House heating and automobile travel
are a large portion of emissions - USA reduced
per capita emissions between 1973 and 1991
slight increase between 1991 and 1997
http//eetd.lbl.gov/newsletter/cbs_nl/nl15/ghg.htm
l
Carbon emissions per capita 1973 versus 1991 by
major end use
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Greenhouse Gases
CO2 Per Units of Economic Output (Gross National
Product)
Emissions GNP Emissions/GNP Ratio Country
(metric tons CO2/year) (billions of
/year) (metric tons CO2/year) China 2,236.3 372.3
a 6.01b South Africa 284.2 79.0 3.60 Romania 220.
7 79.8a 2.77b Poland 459.4 172.4 2.66 India 600.6
237.9 2.52 East Germany 327.4 159.5a 2.05a Czechos
lovakia 233.6 123.2a 1.90b Mexico 306.9 176.7 1.74
U.S.S.R. 3,982.0 2,659.5a 1.50b South
Korea 204.6 171.3 1.19 Canada 437.8 435.9 1.00 Uni
ted States 4,804.1 4,880.1 0.98 Australia 241.3 24
6.0 0.98 United Kingdom 559.2 702.4 0.80 Brazil 20
2.4 323.6 0.63 West Germany 669.9 1,201.8 0.56 Spa
in 187.7 340.3 0.55 Italy 359.7 828.9 0.43 Japan 9
89.3 2,843.7 0.35 France 320.1 949.4 0.34 a
Estimates of GNP for centrally planned economies
are subject to large margins of error. These
estimates are as much 100 times larger than those
from other sources that correct for availability
of goods or use free-market exchange rates. b
The emissions/GNP is also likely to be
underestimated for centrally planned economies.
Source National Academy of Sciences, Policy
Implications of Global Warming (Washington, D.C.
1991).
National Academy of Sciences, 1992 Policy
Implications of Greenhouse Warming Mitigation,
Adaptation, and the Science Base
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Greenhouse Gases
Number of pounds of carbon dioxide emitted into
the air for each mile driven in a passenger car
that gets 22 mpg 0.9 Number of pounds of
carbon dioxide produced by burning 1 gallon of
gasoline 19 Gasoline is a hydrocarbon such as
heptane or C7H16. Burning gasoline means to
oxidize or to chemically combine it with oxygen.
Ideally when gasoline combines with oxygen it
produces carbon dioxide (CO2) and water
(H2O). Heptane Oxygen gt Carbon
Dioxide Water C7H16 11 O2 gt 7 CO2 8
H2O Carbon (C) weighs 12 atomic units
hydrogen (H) 1 atomic unit and oxygen (O) 16
atomic units. So C7H16 11 O2 gt 7 CO2 8
H2O (7)(12)(16)(1) (22)(16) (7)(12)(14)(16)
(16)(1)(8)(16) 100 units 352 units gt 308
units 144 units Gasoline weighs 5.666 lb per
gal. Thus, C7H16 11 O2 gt 7 CO2 8 H2O
5.666 lb 19.94 lb gt 17.45 lb 8.15 lb
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Greenhouse Gases
In the United States, transportation consumes
67 of petroleum used, over half of which is
imported. Over three-quarters of
transportation energy use is by highway
vehicles60 by cars and light trucks
(including minivans and SUVs) and 16 by heavy
trucks. Transportation energy consumption is
increasing by 1.8 per year, faster than any
other major category of energy use.
http//www.aceee.org/energy/cafe.htm Motor
vehicles are responsible for about 31 of all
carbon dioxide emission in the U.S.
Worldwide the percentage is about
15 Lyman, Francesca, 1990 The Greenhouse
Trap. Beacon Press, Boston. pp.
xiii-xiv. Lyman, Francesca, 1990 The
Greenhouse Trap. Beacon Press, Boston. p. 38.
Source 1980, 1990, http//www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/16
05/ggrpt/appendixe.html 2002, preliminary
estimate calculated for the flash estimate.
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Greenhouse Gases
Note Changes (1975, 1987, 1997, 2006) Combined
mpg 13.1, 22.1, 20.9, 21.0 mpg Light truck
SUV percentage 19, 28, 42, 50 Combined
weight 4060, 3220, 3727, 4142 lbs Combined
horsepower 137, 118, 169, 219 hp Examples
(2006) Honda Toyota Hybrid 60 mpg GM
K1500 Sierra AWD 15 mpg Best SUV Ford Escape
Hydrid FWD 33.3 mpg
Heavenrich, R.M., 2006 Light-Duty Automotive
Technology and Fuel Economy Trends 1975 Through
2006, EPA420-R-06-011 http//www.epa.gov/otaq/fetr
ends.htm
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Greenhouse Gases
NBCs Today Show May 13, 2005 - Will this
summer's travel plans become a pain in the pump?
As part of an NBC News series looking at
increasing gas prices, "Today" sent three
families driving from L.A. to N.Y. in six days,
using three different vehicles, for its
"Today's Great American Gas Challenge." "Today"
touches base with the families as they report
back live about their experiences from that
day's destination. - "Today's Great American
Gas Challenge" contestants were ? ? Riley
family (Redding ,CA)Vehicle Lincoln Navigator
(SUV 15 mpg)? Fowler family (Long Beach,
CA)Vehicle Ford 500 (Midsize 25
mpg)?? Pletcher family (Thousand Oaks,
CA)Vehicle Honda Civic Hybrid (40 mpg) - Most
expensive gas for trip ?- Ludlow, CA -
2.96/gallon Cheapest gas for trip - Howe, IN -
1.91/gallon - Gas Mileage and Total Amount
Spent on Gas Riley Family (SUV) 17 mpg -
459.27 Fowler Family (Midsize) 26 mpg - ?
277.98 Pletcher Family (Hybrid) 42 mpg -?
172.67
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Greenhouse Gases
New Hummer H1 2006 4X4 Engine 300-horsepower
turbo-diesel V8 Curb Weight 7,847 lbs Full
Capacity 52.5 gal Crusing Range Nearly 600
miles Why are gas prices so high? Whos to
blame? Americans point fingers at the oil
companies, foreign nations that control the oil
supply, and politicians. Huntsville Times,
Friday 22 April 2005, Front page
http//www.hummer.com/
Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no
one thinks of changing himself. Leo Tolstoy -
Russian novelist (1828 - 1910)
The basic question is this given human nature,
are any of us really capable of change? Sue
Grafton - R is for Ricochet, p. 1
30
Greenhouse Gases

• Steps to Save Gas and Reduce Pollution
• Never top off your tank. Expansion will cause
  your excess to spill out.
• Keep your tires properly inflated. You lose 2
  fuel efficiency for each pound of pressure you're
  low.
• Tighten your gas cap. Gas can evaporate,
  causing your check-engine light to come on.
• Make sure you are ready to go. Idling for 2 min
  uses enough fuel to drive one mile.
• Make sure your wheels are aligned. Poor
  alignment causes the engine to work harder.
• Drive 55 mph instead of 65. That can get you up
  to three more miles per gallon.
• Keep steady pressure on the gas pedal and use
  cruise control when possible.
• Remove bike racks, carriers, etc. They can
  increase fuel consumption by five miles per
  gallon.
• Use your air conditioner in town as little as
  possible. It uses 3 to 5 more fuel. But opening
  windows on the highway can cost you 10 in fuel
  economy.
• Travel light. Make sure you are not carrying
  extra weight that could be left out. The lighter
  the car, the better gas mileage you get.
• Make sure you car is properly maintained. Get a
  tuneup and get the car serviced if the
  check-engine light comes on.
• Plan trips so that you take the shortest, most
  direct routes and make trips in one outing.
• Huntsville Times (Sunday March 13, 2005)
  Source AAA Alabama

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Greenhouse Gases
Meat Grain Energy Water (per lb)
(lbs) (gals of gasoline) (gallons) Pork 6.9 0.44
430 Beef 4.8 0.25 390 Chicken 2.8 0.19 375 Eggs
2.6 0.14 n/a Milk 0.1 0.02 n/a Energy
equivalent of a gallon of gasoline is used for
comparison, most of the energy is natural gas
used in fertilizer production for
grain. Americans annual consumption of red meat
and poultry together is at an all-time high of
178 lbs per person for 1990, up from 137 lbs in
1955. The average American consumed in
1990 65 lbs of beef and veal, 63 lbs of
poultry, 49 lbs of pork, 139 eggs, products
made from 70 gals of milk. Durning, Alan B.,
1991 Fat of the land. World-Watch. 43, pp.
11-17.
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Greenhouse Gases
40 of the worlds grain production, and more
than 70 of the U.S. production, is fed to
livestock. If all this grain were used to feed
people, it would feed five times as many people
as it does after being converted to meat, milk
and eggs. It would also use less energy and
produce less carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous
oxide. A one pound steak has about the same
greenhouse-warming effect as a 25-mile drive in
a typical American car. Durning, Alan
B., 1991 Fat of the land. World-Watch. 43,
pp. 11-17.
33
Greenhouse Gases
Global Warming/CO2 Effects?? From 1982 to
1999, in addition to increased CO2, the climate
grew warmer, wetter and sunnier, and for the
most part, plants flourished (Green
areas) Note global primary productivity (NPP)
between 1982-1999 25 of Earths vegetated area
experienced increased plant productivity,
total increase of 6 Note El Niño years
decreased overall plant growth Eruption of
Mt. Pinatubo also decreased NPP
El Niño Years
http//earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/GlobalGarde
n/
34
Greenhouse Gases
Carbon Dioxide Effects Increases in CO2
stimulate the growth of plants while reducing
their water requirements As plants grow more,
they remove more CO2 from the atmosphere and
contribute additional organic carbon to the
food web Will benefits to plants help offset
the deleterious effects of rising CO2
concentrations? Exposing portions of
ecosystems to elevated CO2 in outdoor
chambers to test
http//www.serc.si.edu/ SERC_web_html/ research.ht
m
http//www.serc.si.edu/SERC_web_html/resglobal.htm
35
Greenhouse Gases
Methane (CH4) 3.5 billion years ago, there was
1,000 times more CH4. Earliest CH4 formed by
volcanoes and ancient bacteria that converted
H2 and CO2 into CH4 and H2O Makes up 96 of
natural gas 50 million more tons per year into
atmosphere Sources - Rotting of organic
matter in peat bogs - Wetlands, rice patties,
landfills - Bacteria living in digestive
tracks of farm animals such as
cattle - Termites
Pounds of Garbage Produced Per Person Per
Year U.S. 1,637 Norway 1,183 Netherlands 1,100 Ge
rmany 823 Sweden 662 France 572 Italy 548 Portugal
367 Recycling Advocate
36
Greenhouse Gases
Methane (CH4) Global CH4 change since
1900 U.S. CH4 source and change since 1990
Emissions of greenhouse gases in the United
States 2004. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of
Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.
DOE/EIA-0573(2004) - ftp//ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/oia
f/1605/cdrom/pdf/ggrpt/057304.pdf
37
Greenhouse Gases
Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Globally N2O increased
10 since 1880 0.2-0.3 per year In
stratosphere, helps destroy ozone U.S.
sources and change since 1990 Sources
- Coal burning - Forest fires - Bacterial
action on chemical fertilizers
Emissions of greenhouse gases in the United
States 2004. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of
Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.
DOE/EIA-0573(2004) - ftp//ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/oia
f/1605/cdrom/pdf/ggrpt/057304.pdf
38
Greenhouse Gases
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) Sources
- Refrigeration and air conditioning - Aeroso
ls - Blowing agent in plastic foams - Solvent
for cleaning electronic parts - Some fire
extinguishers
39
Greenhouse Gases
Ozone 10 in troposphere 90 in
stratosphere Lifespan hours to
days Sources - Photochemical chemistry -
Some manmade
100
90
300
80
250
70
200
60
Height (kft)
50
150
Height (km)
Ozone
40
Concentration
100
30
Stratosphere
20
50
10
Troposphere
80
-120
-80
-40
0
40
Temperature (F)
40
Greenhouse Gases
Growth Rate of Greenhouse Gases Growth rate is
decreasing since high in 1980s Largely because
of reductions in CFCs
http//www.giss.nasa.gov/research/intro/hansen_05/