Stopping sooner or starting later? Fertility decline in Uzbekistan

1
Stopping sooner or starting later?
Fertility decline in Uzbekistan

• David Clifford
• Social Statistics, University of Southampton

2
Background post-Soviet fertility change

• Context crucial to an understanding of fertility
  change (Mason 1997)
• Break-up of Soviet Union in 1991
• Dramatic social, political and economic changes
• Countries of FSU - rich material for examining
  the impact of these changes on fertility
  behaviour (Agadjanian 1999426)

3
Background ex-Soviet states of Central Asia

• neglected in fertility transition literature
• (Barbieri et al. 199669, Agadjanian 1999)

4
Uzbekistans fertility decline

• Total Fertility Rate
• 5.7 mid-1970s
• 3.3 in 1994-1996
• 2.9 in 2000-2002 (Kuzibaeva 2001, Karimov et al.
  1997, Kamilov et al. 2004)
• 4.07 in 1990
• 2.36 in 2003 (UNICEF TransMONEE)

5
Framework understanding fertility decline

• Starting later?
• Higher MAFM, MAFB
• Successive cohorts show fertility deficit from
  beginning of reproductive career
• Recent experience of C and S Europe (Frejka and
  Calot 2001)
• or Stopping sooner?
• Little change in MAFM and MAFB
• Fertility deficit from later stage in the life
  course
• Experience of Ukraine, Moldova (Perelli-Harris
  2005 Bulgaru et al. 2000)

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Measures calculated

• Period and Cohort Perspectives
• MAFM
• MAFB
• Cohort
• Birth Intervals
• Cumulated fertility (CEB) over life course

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Data

• Uzbekistan Health Examination Survey, 2002
• Part of Demographic and Health Survey project
• Nationally Representative
• 5588 women, aged 15-49

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Period change in MAFM and MAFB
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Results
Cohort Age at First Marriage
10
Cohort Age at First Birth
11
Cumulated fertility
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Conclusions

• Clear stopping sooner pattern. Why?
• Increased early fertility
• Earlier marriage
• Rational response to uncertainty?
• Trend for conspicuous consumption increased
  importance of marriage
• Continued short first birth interval
• Decreased later fertility
• Economic hardship reduced fertility later in life
  course
• Context crucial

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Stopping sooner vs. starting later framework

• Merely different stages in fertility decline?
• Expected progression from stopping sooner to
  starting later mechanism of decline- UN 2001
• BUT Russia (Kohler and Kohler 2002), Ukraine
  (Perelli-Harris 2005) reached low TFRs without
  real tendency for postponement
• My perspective no inevitability about the
  progression.
• Relegates spatial difference to temporal
  difference
• Context dependent

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Agenda for future research

• Fertility change in Tajikistan
• poorest of former Soviet Republics in 1991
• experienced most severe changes
• no academic work on fertility change thus far
• more explicit focus on period measures
• Challenges
• Quality of data
• Calculating exposure for period measures
• Especially difficult without exact dates
• Advice welcome!

15
References
e-mail dmc104_at_soton.ac.uk

• References
• Agadjanian, V (1999) Post-soviet demographic
  paradoxes Ethnic differences in marriage and
  fertility in Kazakhstan. Sociological Forum.
  14(3) 425-446.
• Barbieri M, Blum A, Dolkigh E and Ergashev A
  (1996) Nuptiality, Fertility, Use of
  Contraception, and Family Policies in Uzbekistan
  Population Studies 5069-88
• Bulgaru M, Bulgaru O, Sobotka T and Zeman K.
  (2000). Past and present population development
  in the Republic of Moldova, in Kucera T, Kucerová
  O, Opare O and Schaich E (eds.) New Demographic
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• Frejka T and Calot G (2001) Cohort Reproductive
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• Kamilov A I, Sullivan J and Mutalova Z D (2004)
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• Perelli-Harris (2005) The path to lowest-low
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• UNICEF (2005) TransMONEE Database, UNICEF IRC,
  Florence.