Tracing the Contours of Turkish Ideological Space, 20012004

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Tracing the Contours of Turkish Ideological
Space, 2001-2004
Melvin J. Hinich
Ali Çarkoglu
Austin, Texas
April, 2006
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Vote Share on a Left - Right Scale 1950-2002
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Province clusters in November 2002

• AKP is by far the largest party, CHP and DYP are
  second and third far behind

• AKP is by far the largest party, CHP is the
  second with considerable votes, DYP and MHP are
  following

• AKP is by far the largest party, ANAP is the
  second far behind

• AKP is by far the largest party, there are
  considerable votes for the independent candidate

• SINOP

• KIRKLARELI

• BARTIN

• ISTANBUL

• 34

• RIZE

• ARDAHAN

• 15

• EDIRNE

• 248

• KASTAMONU

• SAMSUN

• KOCAELI

• ZONGULDAK

• ARTVIN

• TEKIRDAG

• 14

• KARABÜK

• TRABZON

• ORDU

• DÜZCE

• 116

• GIRESUN

• KARS

• SAKARYA

• 65

• 27

• YALOVA

• AMASYA

• BOLU

• ÇANKIRI

• ÇORUM

• GÜMÜSHANE

• 41

• TOKAT

• 30

• BAYBURT

• IGDIR

• 45

• BURSA

• 23

• ÇANAKKALE

• ERZURUM

• BILECIK

• 36

• 165

• ANKARA

• 24

• AGRI

• SIVAS

• ERZINCAN

• KIRIKKALE

• ESKISEHIR

• 203

• BALIKESIR

• YOZGAT

• 9

• 47

• KÜTAHYA

• TUNCELI

• KIRSEHIR

• MUS

• BINGÖL

• 54

• MANISA

• VAN

• AFYON

• ELAZIG

• NEVSEHIR

• BITLIS

• KAYSERI

• 54

• 27

• MALATYA

• USAK

• 23

• 107

• AKSARAY

• IZMIR

• DIYARBAKIR

• BATMAN

• KONYA

• 106

• SIIRT

• 69

• 118

• AYDIN

• ADIYAMAN

• HAKKARI

• ISPARTA

• NIGDE

• SIRNAK

• 50

• DENIZLI

• KAHRAMANMARAS

• 50

• ADANA

• MARDIN

• SANLIURFA

• BURDUR

• MUGLA

• OSMANIYE

• ANTALYA

• 45

• 44

• GAZIANTEP

• KARAMAN

• 63

• 26

• IÇEL

• KILIS

• 22

• HATAY

• DEHAP is by far the largest party, AKP is the
  second far behind

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1st Province Cluster
4th Province Cluster

• CHP is the first party, AKP is the second with
  considerable votes and DYP is the tird party

2nd Province Cluster
5th Province Cluster
3rd Province Cluster
6th Province Cluster
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Euclidean Distance Model
Suppose that there are N observers and M
targets. Each observer at position
reports the squared Euclidean distance
to the targets at locations
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Squared Distances with Errors
For each error
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Removing the Nonlinear Terms
The nonlinearity is removed by subtracting the
distances to one target, target m0 from the
distances to the other targets. Then compute the
sample covariance matrix of the differences
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Assume that the errors
are independently identically distributed and
that they are independent of the observer
positions
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Covariance Matrix of Distance Differences

• Assume that the observer positions are
  uncorrelated random variables whose variances are

Then the covariance matrix of the
distance differences is
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is a Mx2 matrix of target positions
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2001 Survey
A nation-wide representative survey of urban
population conducted during the chaotic weeks of
the second economic crisis of February 2001
1201 face-to-face interviews were conducted in
12 of the 81 provinces of Turkey
The survey was run during 2/20 3/16 using a
random sampling method that represents the
nationwide voting age urban population based on
the urban population figures of 1997 census data.
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KEY DATA ABOUT THE SURVEY

• The target of the sample was the nation-wide
  urban and rural settlers who are 18 years or
  older.
• The sample consisted of a total of 2028
  face-to-face interviews conducted in 54
  districts, 291 neighborhoods and 95 villages of a
  total 33 provinces.
• Under the restrictive assumption of simple random
  sampling this sample has a confidence interval of
  95 with an error margin of /- 2,2.
• Provinces chosen according to probability
  proportionate to size (PPS) principle on the
  basis of their registered voter population in
  1999 general election.
• The questionnaire was administered between the
  10th and 25th of October 2002.

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FACTS ABOUT THE FIELD RESEARCH

• Training for questionnaire implementation was
  given by Ali Çarkoglu and Ersin Kalaycioglu on
  October 4. The questionaire was tested and
  necessay corrections made after a pilot study on
  October 5-6.
• During the project 9 experts, 35 supervisers and
  186 interviewers were assigned.
• 45 of the interviews were completed in the first
  trial. The rest is completed by either trying for
  a second time or selecting new streets and
  households.
• Interviews lasted 35 minutes on average.
• 45 of the interviews were randomly controlled.
  Controls are made either by phoning or going to
  the households one more time. 332 interviews were
  cancelled and conducted with replacements.

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Basic Independent Variables
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Vote Intentions for the November 3rd Election

• 29,4

• AKP

• 14,4

• CHP

• 9,9

• GP

• 5,0

• DYP

• 4,1

• MHP

• 3,3

• DEHAP

• 2,4

• ANAP

• 1,5

• SP

• 1,0

• YTP

• 0,7

• DSP

• 0,6

• BBP

• 1,3

• Other

• Will not vote

• 1,9

• Will not vote for the
• existing parties

• 7,1

• 8,7

• Undecided

• 8,7

• DK/NA

• 0

• 10

• 20

• 30

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Xenophobia Political Efficacy

• Xenophobia
• Foreigners who settle in our country harm our
  culture.
• Foreigners who settle in our country make our
  chances of finding a job
• more difficult
• Some should either love Turkey or leave it.
• I would not want a foreigner to be my neighbor
• Political efficacy
• Regular citizens like me have no power for
  changing political decisions in Turkey for their
  advantage.
• Turkey is being ruled by a small and powerful
  group.
• Whatever I do I don't think I can reach a better
  position in society

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Valence Question - Revitalizing the Economy
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March-2004 survey of nation-wide representative
urban population (N1,232)
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?
1st D. 2nd D. Alevis -1.5
-3.8 Non-Alevis 0.3 -1.7