Wildfires

1
Wildfires

• Problem Statement (Model Focus)
• How do policies of fire suppression, controlled
  burns, clear cutting, and forest thinning impact
  the number and severity of wildfires and the
  number of homes lost to fire in urban interface
  areas? How does the system structure influence
  legislation for clear cutting vs. forest thinning?

2
The Stocks Flows
3
Fire Suppression (B1) reduces the number of
wildfires
4
The fire suppression fix (B1) has the effect of
increasing undergrowth buildup and increasing the
number of wildfires (R2) and homes burned (R3).
Fire suppression is a Fix that Fails.
5
Another failure Fire suppression also increases
the number of homes burned (R4).
6
Controlled burns to clear undergrowth can also
reduce wildfires (B5).
7
The more wildfires, the more the sentiment to do
something. One something is clear cutting,
which does reduce wildfires homes lost (B6a,b).
Clear cutting also provides logging profits
that allow industry to influence legislation to
allow even more clear cutting (R7).
8
Forest thinning is another response to
sentiment to do something that creates
additional balancing feedbacks that affect
wildfires and Environmental Quality. It clears
undergrowth to reduce wildfires and homes lost
(B8a,b). It also regulates Environmental
Quality by increasing large tree growth (B9).
9
But clear cutting decreases Environmental
Quality by reducing large tree growth (B10a)
and increasing forest land erosion (B10b). This
prompts a push for more forest thinning to
reduce clear cutting. Because this reduces
industry logging profits, industry opposes it
(B11). Logging interests greatly fear this,
because reduced profits decrease their ability to
promote clear cutting (R7) and oppose forest
thinning (R12).
10
The Whole Mess