Our vision is to provide national leadership in the area of invasive species science and work with o

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Our vision is to provide national leadership in
the area of invasive species science and work
with others to disseminate and synthesize current
and accurate data and research to detect,
predict, and reduce the effects of harmful
non-native plants, animals, and diseases in
ecosystems and natural areas throughout the
United States. Our mission is to develop
cooperative approaches for invasive species
science to meet the urgent needs of land managers
and the public.
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Weve done a lot but much more to be
done! Plant, Animals, and Diseases Aquatic and
Terrestrial
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Projected Outcomes

• Within two years, develop a comprehensive
  strategy for invasive species science that is
  responsive to the National Invasive Species
  Councils research agenda as identified in the
  National Invasive Species Management Plan
• Within four years, create a national capability
  for invasive species forecasting, early
  detection, and rapid assessment of harmful
  invasive plants, animals, and wildlife diseases
  that can aid national efforts in prevention,
  containment (by linking to response authorities
  and capabilities, and restoration)
• Within six years, develop the economic and
  organizational basis for long-term sustainability
  of the Institute.

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Institute Lines of Business
Science Research
Global Organism Detection and Monitoring System
Early Detection/ Rapid Response
Education/ Outreach
Forecasting
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Why focus on research, EDRR, IM? Pick any
example! How have we done?
1. It can easily spread outside a quarantine zone
firewood moving in pickups? 2. We dont have
the host species well mapped where are the
landscape ash trees? 3. Control methods can be
severe.
Chestnut bight, Dutch elm disease, blister rust,
sudden oak death . . .
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Invasive Species Roadmap Forecasting and
Management of Invasive Species
USGS National Institute of Invasive Species
Science Regional, National, Interl
measurements predictions
Capability to link biotic potential diversity
to carbon storage flux
Global atmospheric CO2
Date 6/14/2002
Primary Partners
Capability to assess predict patterns of
species invasion biodiversity for different
land uses
Second generation global land cover change
products
Soil surface moisture measurements
Enables modeling of invasive species spread as a
function of soil fertility vegetative processes
Capability for assessment of complex structural
habitats(3-D vs former 2-D capability)
Capability for terrestrial aquatic prediction
Forest height canopy volume sampled globally.
First global land cover change data product
N. American Carbon Program related
international results incorporated into models
(w/ C, climate, ecosystem data assimilation.
Continental assessments of native exotic plant
diversityProbable locations of rare habitats
potential areas for future invasion
An operational National Invasive Species
Forecasting System for early detection
monitoring of biological invasions.
Socioeconomic Impact
Exploratory studies to map biological resources
using existing satellite sensors coupled
atmospheric-terrestrial models
Regional assessments of native exotic plant
diversity Capability to discriminate between
potential hot spots of native exotic plant
diversity
EOS global land cover observations Carbon
climate model assimilation
Baseline information dynamics of major
terrestrial types of invasive species
Current Trajectory Steady improvement in model
coupling enhanced functional, structural,
spatial, temporal environmental measurements
USGS National Institute of Invasive Species
Science Local measurements
Pre-formulation In review
Aqua
Landsat 7
Terra
VCL
NPP/VIIRS
LDCM
NPOESS
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
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Integrating Projects Leveraging Data, Funding,
and Expertise
Fire weeds In the West
Fire effects
National scale patterns of invasive species and
ecological forecasting eirds, fish, plants, etc.
NASA/CSU Biological Fingerprinting
CBM effects
AK EDRR USFWS
NASA Ames
Strange Days
NASA Goddard studies
ICE
Tamarisk mapping
VEGBANK
Heinz Center Invasive Species Database Survey
NWR System surveys
Cactoblastis impacts
Brown tree-snakes Guam
State weed mapping
Refuge EDRR 7 per year
Also 220 NPS areas, 3000 EPA Fish , APHIS, NWRC,
Aquatic spp.
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What Makes Us Different?

• Large databases that cross taxa and biological
  groups cross spatial scales (from m2 to the
  nation and globe) and cross temporal scales
  (surveys to long-term monitoring, before and
  after treatments).
• Integration of remote sensing, high performance
  computing, field data, ancillary data, and
  web-based technologies (Invasive Species
  Forecasting System) a species AND habitat
  approach.
• Create improved methods, protocols, and
  strategies for Early Detection/Rapid Response,
  Smart surveys and monitoring, and restoration.
• New algorithms and models for forecasting species
  distribution, abundance, and impacts (economic,
  environmental, and human health costs).
• Processes 1 to 4 are INTEGRATED!

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Tremendous Progress

• Major databases linked (plants, birds, fishes)
  synthesized, and published.
• Major partnerships established (NASA, USFWS,
  USFS, APHIS, TNC, Universities, NGOs, tribes).
• Created the Global Organism Detection and
  Monitoring System (www.NIISS.org).
• Proven utility -- Team Tamarisk huge Dept.
  Interior initiative including economic
  assessments (Inter-departmental, 400
  participants.
• Proven modeling -- NASA Invasive Species
  Forecasting System leafy spurge in CO, tamarisk
  in US).
• Gaining many more partnerships with citizen
  scientists, Foundations, state and local
  governments, and the public.
• Becoming the go-to team.

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Useful products at multiple scales Prevention/Ear
ly Detection/Rapid Response
Small Populations vs. Large Populations
Uncoordinated efforts
Control Cost
With early detection, Rapid response, smart
monitoring restoration
Control Cost
1 ac
0.1 ac
Time
Area
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Landscape-scale Assessment of Native and Exotic
Plant Diversity and Cryptobiotic Crusts in the
Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument
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Good News A few species at a few sites. . . For
now!
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1. Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument
Mapping Priority Weeds
Cheatgrass Biomass Estimates
Habitat type g/m2 biomass Aspen 19.1 Sagebru
sh 7.7 Rabbitbrush 7.6 Wet Meadow
7.0 Disturbed PJ 5.6 Juniper 4.4 Perenn.
Riparian 3.7 Blackbrush 3.2 Ponderosa Pine
3.1 Desert Shrub 2.8 Pinyon Pine 2.2 PJ
1.4 PJ/Oak 1.0 PJ/Manz. 0.02
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Cerro Grande NM -- Predicting Invasions CSUs
spatial modeling expertise
Maps with error bars spatial variation and
uncertainty.
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The Tamarisk Mapping Initiative Early Detection
Technology

• Steals water worth millions.
• Degrades soils wildlife habitat.
• Replaces native species.
• Public outcry (e.g., The Tamarisk
• Coalition, states, parks refuges).
• 3 to 4 major workshops/year.
• Pending legislative initiatives (Dominici,
  McInnis, Campbell).
• States are developing Tamarisk Control Plans
  (e.g., Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona).
• Norton, Veneman Launch Cooperative Initiative
  to Control Invasive Tamarisk In Southwest.
  January 22, 2004.
• Western Governors call to action!

Get picture of huge plant here
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Gathering existing data from all sources
Colorado example
County reporting Tamarisk missed by Quarter-Quads
Quarter-Quads reporting Tamarisk
Weed mapping or vegetation survey plots reported
Tamarisk missed by Quarter-Quads
National Parks reporting Tamarisk missed by
Quarter-Quads
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Retrieve data from the web and print at any scale
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Preliminary Model of Potential Spread in 10 Years
Control/ Restoration Monitoring Sites
Early Detection Rapid Response Sites
Priority Survey Sites
Containment Boundary
10 Years
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Risk Assessment and Early Detection/Rapid Respons
e and Containment/Restoration Needs
Site
Need to know 1. Current distribution and
abundance, 2. Data completeness, 3. Potential
dist. and abund., 4. Potential rate of spread, 5.
Risks/Impacts (env. econ. human health) 6.
Containment/Restoration Potential 7. Opportunity
costs 8. Legal mandates To select Priority
Species and Priority Sites
County, State, Region
Nation
Rarely done
Requires modeling
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Iterative Sampling for Invasive Species
Second Phase
Iterative Model Refinement Phase
Initial Phase
Add Stratified-Random Sampling Component to
assess mean conditions within envelope
Subjectively Sample Known Locations (location,
cover, area)
Add More Stratified- Random Samples
Add Opportunistic Samples of Locations note
presence/absence, cover, area
and/or
Add Gradient Sampling Component to assess extreme
gradients within suitable envelope and to assess
unsuitable boundary
Add More Gradient Samples
Iterative Models Validate all previous data
Continue to refine previous models as new
information becomes available
First Approximation Model environmental envelope
of presence/absence logical strata, based on
suitable habitats, major environmental gradients,
or TM heterogeneity classes identify information
gaps (soils, other data)
Second Approximation Model Validate subjective
data and refine the first model
Outputs (1) Current and potential distribution
models (2) Priority sites for control
and restoration (3) Potential early detection
sites and (4) Probability and uncertainty
analyses.
Assess Model Improvements
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Add points, plots, polygons
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Print at any scale, with associated data
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Putting information and predictive models to work
to help conservation managers
For More Information Tom_Stohlgren_at_USGS.gov
www.NIISS.org
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Map created at The National Institute of
Invasive Species Science
LEGEND
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Russian olive
Standardized reporting formats improves data
comparability and sharing.
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Gradient sampling determines the physiological
limits of a species.
Hackberry Creek
Cottonwood Rd
Tamarisk Infestation
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Tamarisk Mapping
Potential Heavy Invasion?
Assessing habitat potential to invasion is very
important
Potential Light Invasion?
Current Invasion
Ancillary data will help!
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Rapid Assessment
Early Detection
4. GIS-based modeling to identify gaps, and
estimate current/potential distribution
5. Web-based Models of current and potential
distributions
3. Automated cross-links to geographic data
layers
1. Outside data and Targeted surveys for
presence/absence/cover
2. Upload to the Invasive Species Mapping System,
and, automated links to stream level, slope,
aspect, elevation, PET, distance to road, etc.
Boots, GPS Trail map Sandwich
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National Institute of Invasive Species Science
Global Organism Detection and Monitoring System
Objective Capturing information (location data,
species characteristics, and environmental
attributes) on all taxa of invasive species to
detect, control, and monitor their spread.
Integrating these data to serve land managers,
land owners, researchers, government officials,
and the public.
From the field
To the web

• Multiple data types
• Upload via the web in three formats
• Palm programs (weed mapping and vegetation
  survey)
• GIS Shapefile
• Tab-delimited text file
• User maps fields to database fields
• Require specific format (e.g. standardized
  measurements)

• Based on enterprise database, custom COM objects,
  and ASP pages
• Interactive map displaying invasive species
  distributions
• Add new locations by clicking the map
• Query the database by species, project, or area
• Real-time statistics and links to research
• Species profiles
• Watch lists

Rocky Mountain National Park
To the modeling

• Current and potential abundance and distribution
• Probability maps
• Gaps in knowledge from uncertainty maps
• Smart surveys
• Select priority species and sites
• Vulnerability and risk analysis

Filed crews use palmtops downloaded to the
database via phones or computers.
To the future

• Tentative release date September 2005
• E-mail new species report to manager
• On-line modeling capabilities
• Download selected data
• PDF report with map, profile, control
  information, and model

To the database

• SQL Server- extensible and standardized
• Three main, required fields
• Area geographic location
• Visit date area was visited
• OrganismData unique organism id for a visit
• Capture metadata, auxiliary data, spatial data
  (e.g. shapefile for area), treatments (control
  information), etc.

Probability of occurrence for leafy spurge in
Colorado modeled and tested using informations
from 45 datasets.
For more information, contact Thomas J.
Stohlgren U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins
Science Center 2150 Centre Ave., Building C Fort
Collins, CO 80526-8118 Tel. [phone] Tom_Stohl
gren_at_usgs.gov http//www.fort.usgs.gov/research/10
0/100.asp
URLs http//www.niiss.org And tamarisk
specific http//www.tamariskmap.org
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Core Database Schema
Global Organism Detection and Monitoring System
What
Where
Who When
Organizations
TaxonUnits
Projects
OrganismToArea
Visits (Date)
OrganismData (TSN)
Area (Name, Code)
AuxillaryData
Attributes
SpatialData (X,Y)
Treatments
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GODM Schedule

• December 2004
• View data on maps, add single point click
• April 2005
• Faster map rendering, bulk data upload, user
  level security, project management, palm field
  sampling tool, context sensitive help for summer
  field testing
• May 2005
• More map layers, bulk upload of multi-scale
  plots, environmental envelope tool
• June 2005
• User selected data download capabilities, early
  warnings for an area
• September 2005
• Press release of field tested web site

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Standard Data Reporting Form
am
Date
Time
pm
Taxonomist Name
Elapsed Time
minutes
Required Fields
UTM Easting
Location certainty within
meters
Location
UTM Northing
UTM Zone
Datum
Check Species Observed
--- Plants ---
Select level of taxonomic certainty
Uncertain of variety
Uncertain of subspecies
Species Observation
Uncertain of species
Uncertain of genus
--- Invertebrates ---
Imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta)
--- Other ---
Additional Data Fields
(customize as needed)
Notes
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Standard Data Reporting Form
am
Date
Time
pm
Taxonomist Name
Required Fields
UTM Easting
Location certainty within
meters
Location
UTM Northing
Area Surveyed
m2 ft2 ac ha
UTM Zone
Datum
Certain of Taxonomic ID?
Species Observed
--- Scientific Name ---
--- Present ---
--- Absent ---
Species Observation
Additional Data Fields
(customize as needed)
Notes
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Standard Survey and Monitoring Design (7.3-m
radius plots plus ancillary data)
extensive sampling - Verify and validate
current and potential distribution maps. - To map
and model tamarisk (and other invaders) presence,
absence and estimated cover of tamarisk from
local to regional and national scales
Tamarisk Polygons with GPS following NAWMA
methods
Stream
intensive monitoring -multi-scale circular
plot collect quantitative and ancillary data on
pre- and post control and restoration efforts. -
quality control of extensive sampling effort
following Beyond NAWMA methods
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intensive data, one of many tables in
relational database
extensive data, also part of same relational
database
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Summary of what we need to do next

• Create Living maps of the distribution and
  abundance of the most harmful invasive species in
  the U.S.
• Develop watch lists and set priorities for
  early detection and rapid response for all local
  areas, states, regions, and the U.S.
• Institutionalize an Early Detection/Rapid
  Response, and Smart Survey and Monitoring
  Program for the U.S.
• Quantify the vulnerability of habitats in the US
  to future invasions of diseases, animals, and
  plants.
• Predict rates of spread (and the corridors and
  barriers to invasion) for selected key invaders.
  
• Evaluate the economic, environmental, and human
  health costs of selected key invaders.
• Evaluate the costs (and opportunity costs) of
  containment and restoration.
• Monitoring effectiveness of management actions
  and inactions.
• Share information instantaneously.
• Requires leveraging data, funding, ideas, and
  people!

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The National Institute of Invasive Species Science
www.niiss.org
The best ideas really come from beer and brats!