THE FLU

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THE FLU
Its Not Your Ordinary Crisis, Anymore
Robert E. Armstrong, Ph.D. Senior Research
Fellow Center for Technology and National
Security Policy National Defense
University armstrongre_at_ndu.edu
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H5N1 Virus
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Background

• Evolution of current avian flu virus (H5N1) to a
  pandemic influenza is an immediate worldwide
  concern.
• Current situation characterized by uncertainty
  and urgency-- placing premium on speed and
  flexibility in planning/responding.
• Existing plans are incomplete and are
  over-reliant on the medical response component.
• Much current planning incorrectly focuses on
  operations for the flu vs. operations during the
  flu.

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Current Planning

• FROM THE PRESIDENTS NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR
  PANDEMIC INFLUENZA
•  
• Leveraging National Medical and Public Health
  Surge Capacity
•  
• Determine the spectrum of public health, medical
  and veterinary surge capacity activities that the
  U.S. militarymay be able to supportcontingent
  upon primary mission requirements(emphasis
  added).

• Sustaining Infrastructure, Essential Services and
  the Economy
•  
• Determine the spectrum of infrastructure-sustainm
  ent activities that the U.S. militarymay be able
  to supportcontingent upon primary mission
  requirements(emphasis added).

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We have been here before
The Great War

• Symmetrical Warfare
• Symmetrical Threat From the Flu Virus

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Ludendorffs 1918 Offensives
While influenza added to the Germans misery,
the changed strategic situation, the Allies
success, and the increasingly important role
played by the Americans clearly had a much more
significant effect. Robert Doughty, Ph.D. BG,
USA (ret.) Former Chair, History Dept., U.S.
Military Academy
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Implications For the Military

• Pandemic Influenza
• First and foremost a READINESS ISSUE
• NOT a medical issue.
• Affects the entire force in all COCOM AORs -
  TRANSCOM and SOCOM have unique concerns.
• Affects all links in the chain
• recruit ? train ? maintain ? retain
• Affects civilian workforce, contractors,
  servicemember dependents.

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Current Combat Operations

• Asymmetrical warfare
• Symmetrical threat from the virus
• PSYOP potential for al-Qaeda
• Contingency Operations in other COCOMs including
  USNORTHCOM

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Military Assistance to Civil Authorities

• Traditional missions
• Discrete time and space
• Troops available from all
• states/components
• Recovery/Reconstitution Ops -
• including infrastructure repair/reconstruction
• Pandemic missions
• Multiple time and space
• Troops vulnerable to infection, reducing
  availability levels
• Continuity Ops including essential services

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Stuff Happens
Non Linear, Complex System
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H5N1
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Why the Cavalry Cant Come to the Rescue
Personnel
Troop Strength/Availability
Operational Tempo
PandemicFlu Event
Ongoing Combat Ops
Contingency Ops
Natural Disaster(s)
Multiple Flu Events
Missions
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Pandemic Influenza (PI)
A PI outbreak will cause critical and inadequate
military and civilian staffing resulting in
reduced logistical, readiness, and overall
functional capability of a military unit or
civilian community.
PLANORD for Operations to Counter Pandemic
Influenza (USPACOM)
Operational planning to contain the effects of PI
and maintain combat readiness requires an
assessment of the impact of the disease on
military units and civilian communities.
PLANORD for Operations to Counter Pandemic
Influenza (USPACOM)
DoD Influenza Model -- DODIM
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DODIM Department of Defense (Pandemic)
Influenza Model
DoD Outputs
DoD Inputs
DODIM (CDC) Algorithms
Force degradation
Force composition
DODIM algorithms are derived from peer-reviewed
CDC generated models includingFluSurge/ FluAid/
Flu Workloss
Sample Output Screen
Sample Input Screen
Inputs Outputs are DoD-centric configurable
for impact of PI (time-phased scalable) at all
levels up to and including total force. Inputs
can be default or operator/end-user defined.
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ITS THE LAW!

• Metcalfe the value of a network is approximately
  equal to the square of the number of users of the
  system (n2).
• Reed (Metcalfe is a pessimist.) The utility of
  large networks, particularly social networks, can
  scale exponentially with the size of the network.
  Not only is a member connected to the entire
  network as a whole, but also to many significant
  subsets of the whole.
• Odlyzko Tilly (Metcalfe is an optimist.) The
  value of a network with n members is not n
  squared, but rather n times the logarithm of n.
  Not all potential connections in a network are
  equally valuable.