September, 10th, 2003,

1
Geographical changes in supply and demand of
scrap
China Example for the changes in supply and
demand

• September, 10th, 2003,
• by
• LI LAN, BGRIMM

2
Contents

• The background for the geographical changes
• Scraps recycling in history
• Changes in supply and demand
• Conclusion

3
Background-I
Chinas GDP from 1952 to 2002 unit 100 million
RMB
4
Background-II
60000
50000
Refragetor
Aircon
Washing Machine
40000
Color TV
30000
20000
10000
0
1957
1965
1975
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
SourceChina NBS
Production of major home electrical appliance
since 1957 to 2002 unit thousand
5
Background-III
SourceCCID
Mobile production unit thousand
6
Background-IV
SourceChina NBS
Automobile production unit thousand
7
Background-V

• Home ownership of some electrical appliance in
  urban area

SourceChina NBS
8
Scraps recycling in history
Table Primary and Secondary Production of Cu,
Pb, Zn
Source China Non-ferrous Metals statistical
Yearbook
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Demand of scraps
  Chinas strong demand for non-ferrous scraps
was driven by the following forces ---
Capacity expansion for scraps refining. ---
Strong demand from fabricating industry for
reducing cost and fierce price competition.
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Supply of Non-ferrous metals scraps
-- Imported scraps          Scraps
directly          Scraps containing in other
wasted products -- Domestic scraps          Old
used scraps, (which was from old equipment,
appliance, etc. ) Down-stream producers
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Changes in Supplying
Imports 1 Smuggling has been strongly banned
since end of 1990s. 2 Scraps imports from Japan
and S korea increase a lot 3 New regulation
Since 15th August, 2002, the imports of
scrapped electrical domestic appliances, such as
aircon, refrigerator, micron-oven, TV, including
their components and assembling parts, IC, PCB,
and scraped office equipment (PCs, fax, monitor,
printer and copier machines, etc.,) has been
prohibited. 4 The growth of scrap generation in
USA and Europe has slow down Trends The ratio
in total scraps supply will decline.
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Changes in Supplying
Domestic Strong non-ferrous metal consumption
domestically is paving the road for the growth of
copper scraps generation. Old used scraps is
increasing - from domestic old equipment,
electrical appliance - demolishment from local
old infrastructure facilities Scraps generation
from down-stream producers Trends The ratio in
total scraps supply will increase.
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Conclusion

• Chinas economy strong growth promoted the
  consumption of non-ferrous metal since 1980s.
• The strong domestic consumption of non-ferrous
  metals in this decade paved the way for
  non-ferrous metal recycling in the future.
• China will rely on locally supplying scraps
  rather than imports in next decades.
• Chinas government has issued some regulation to
  ban the imports of some wasted products, which
  will indirectly reduce the non-ferrous metal
  scraps imports.