Adaptation to heat waves occurrence in France

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Adaptation to heat waves occurrence in France
S. Planton, M. Gillet, M. Déqué, and J.
Manach Météo-France, CNRM  Observatoire
National sur les Effets du Réchauffement
Climatique  (France)
? The 2003 heat wave in Western Europe
? First adaptation measures to heat wave
occurrence
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Adaptation to heat waves occurrence in France
S. Planton, M. Gillet, M. Déqué, and J.
Manach Météo-France, CNRM  Observatoire
National sur les Effets du Réchauffement
Climatique  (France)
? The 2003 heat wave in Western Europe
? First adaptation measures to heat wave
occurrence
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Mean June-July-August temperatures in France (C)
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The last heat waves850Hpa June-July-August
Anomalies
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Temperature in Chartres
o
40
ECMWF
o
35
o
30
9 days with Txgt35C Tngt20C Obs. 2 day for. 5
day for.
o
25
o
20
o
15
o
10
August 7
August 14
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June-July-August temperature in France (C)
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The 2003 heat wave in Western Europe
? For the period running from June 1st to August
31st, the year 2003 is the warmest ever recorded
in France. The warming is singular by its
amplitude and its extension over Western Europe.
? The hottest period appeared to be predictable a
few days in advance.
? Some regional climate change scénarios suggest
that summers as warm or warmer than 2003 summer
might occur every two years on average after 2050
in France (Déqué 2004) or in Switzerland (Schär
et al, 2004).
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Adaptation to heat waves occurrence in France
S. Planton, M. Gillet, M. Déqué, and J.
Manach Météo-France, CNRM  Observatoire
National sur les Effets du Réchauffement
Climatique  (France)
? The 2003 heat wave in Western Europe
? First adaptation measures to heat wave
occurrence
9
Post-heat wave reports and actions
? Reports
29 August 2003 Institut de Veille Sanitaire. 25
September 2003 INSERM. November 2003 Ville de
Paris. 3 February 2004 Sénat. 3 March 2004
Assemblée Nationale.
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August 2003 temperature and mortality
Ile-de-France(INSERM, 2004)
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August 2003 temperature and mortality
Rhône-Alpes(INSERM, 2004)
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Post-heat wave reports and actions
? Reports
29 August 2003 Institut de Veille Sanitaire. 25
September 2003 INSERM. November 2003 Ville de
Paris. 3 February 2004 Sénat. 3 March 2004
Assemblée Nationale.
? Action plans
5 May 2004 Heat wave plan for old peoples
houses. 6 May 2004 Heat wave plan for medical
urgency services and hospitals of Paris and
its surroundings. 1 June-30 September 2004
French alert system for heat waves and
health. 2 June 2004 Heat wave plan for Paris.
As part of the National heat wave plan
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The national heat wave plan
? Level 1
Seasonal survey from 1 June to 30 September to
check up the different action plans and to inform
the public for prevention.
? Level 2
To mobilize public services from local to
national scales when an overtaking of
biometeorological thresholds is forecasted in the
next 3 days.
? Level 3
To apply medical and social measures when an
heatwave is occurring.
? Level 4
To apply exceptional measures when an heatwave is
extending and lasting .
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The french alert system for heat waves and health
Established by the  Institut de Veille
Sanitaire  and Météo-France to alert authorities
with 3-day anticipation.
? Method
Definition of a biometeorological indicator a
combination of daily minimum and maximum
temperatures averaged over 3 days.
Construction of a map of threshold values of this
indicator for a given overmortality percentage.
? Application
Activation of Level 2 of the national heatwave
plan when forecasted indicators (1, 2 or 3 days
in advance) overtake the threshold values.
The vigilance map elaborated with 1-day
temperature forecasts for public information.
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First adaptation measures to heat wave occurrence
? A combination of decision levels from local to
national with a national coordination.
? A combination of anticipation levels
Very short term medical and social measures
Short term 3-day anticipation of heat waves
Long term prevention by public information
? An adaptation to climate change as heat waves
will become more frequent and as decision makers
are generally aware of this.