The Murray Darling Basin Model: Warts and All

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The Murray Darling Basin Model Warts and All

• David Adamson
• RSMG
• School of Economics,
• University of Queensland
• 2006

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3 Take Home Messages

• Dual platform model (EXCEL GAMS)
• Easy to play with and lots of features but
• Need to get the base data right (salinity)

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Understanding Modelling Limitations
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Modelling Errors

• Data sets
• Methods
• Assumptions
• Development
• A lot of the errors occur during development and
  dual platform development prevents this when
  error checking

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Model
Assumptions /or Model Parameters
The Question
Property Right Structure/s
Results
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Good Points

• We have consistent results between Excel and GAMS
  so we have debugged the model
• Whole of basin
• Adding new data sets is easy
• User friendly

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Warts Requiring Work

• Bio-physical data sets assumptions
• Which climate change model is best and why?
• Improve the farming systems options for each
  region and their state contingent outcome for
  each state of nature

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Whats Next?

• Add a Load Save feature
• Incorporate the spatial production changes from
  climate change (APSIM)
• Increased scrutiny of the bio-physical data
• Release the model documentation notes

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More Info