Scott F' Belcher

1
Vision 2020 The ITS America External
Scan Closing Session 14th World Congress on ITS
Scott F. Belcher President CEO ITS America
2
Key Issues Raised in the ITS America
Environmental Scan

• Changing Demographics
• Population Growth
• Aging Population
• Economic Disparity
• Political Realities
• Government Funding
• Climate Change
• Privacy and Data Security
• Changing Technology
• What Does the Future Hold?

3
Changing Demographics The American Population
is on the Move
From Outside

• The population will continue to grow
• Travel demands will continue to shift toward
  suburban areas
• Travel demands will exceed current highway
  capacity.

0.8 Mil
0.8 Mil
3.3 Mil
City Center
Suburbs
Population Migration Annually Between City and
Suburbs
Source US Bureau of the Census
4
Changing Demographics With Population Growth
Comes Congestion
Demand vs. Capacity

• Increase in vehicle miles traveled far outpaces
  increases in lane miles

Source US Federal Highway Administration
5
Changing Demographics With Congestion Comes
Delay

• The annual delay American drivers experience is
  increasing significantly each year.

Annual Delay per Traveler
Hours
Source Texas Transportation Institute
6
Changing Demographics Our Population is Aging

• The average age of drivers in the United States
  will increase significantly over the next 20
  years.

Source US Bureau of the Census
7
Changing Demographics An Aging Population
Brings New Challenges

• Traffic fatalities in the United States have
  leveled off at about 40,000 per year
• The elderly have higher fatality and accident
  rates
• A greater need for technological safety solutions

Driver Fatality Rate Per 100 million VMT
Source NHTSA
8
Changing Demographics The Economic Divide is
Growing
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population
Survey, 2007
9
Changing Demographics The Haves are Willing
and Able to Purchase Transportation
Average Household Expenditures by Major Spending
Category 2005

• Increased willingness to pay more to for upgraded
  transportation services
• The use of electronic payments will grow
  significantly

Source BTS
10
Changing Demographics The Less Affluent Present
Their Own Challenges

• Inability to pay for additional transportation
  services
• Need for more public transportation
• Reliance on older vehicles

11
Changing Demographics More People Speak
Languages Other Than English
12
Political Realities Government Funding Will Not
Likely Keep Up with Transportation Demand
Transportation PPP Activity in the U.S. Since 1991
13
Political Realities Climate Change Will
Dominate the Political Landscape
U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Use
1985-2005
Sources of Carbon Dioxide
Source BTS
14
Political Realities Increasing Focus on Privacy
Issues

• Heightened security needs are driving greater
  demands for personally-identifiable data for
  travel information and traffic management.
• This need runs counter to U.S. culture/expectation
  s
• There will be growing concerns over liability for
  government and private date users

15
Changing Technology The Future is Here

• Increasing technical sophistication and
  acceptance among the population
• Ubiquitous use of the Internet
• Increasing use of personal nomadic devices and
  networked multi-modal communications devices
• Many ITS technologies are already in use
• New technologies are being introduced daily
• Vast amounts of technology in development

16
Changing Technology We have a long way to go

• Planning for new transportation systems and
  services will drive greater use of technology
  improvements to increase capacity but
• Government funding for maintenance and new roads
  likely to take priority over technology
• Government funding for maintenance and new roads
  not likely to keep up with demand
• Technology will increase vehicle costs
• Market penetration could take years

17
What Does This Mean For the Future?

• Population is growing and aging
• Personal wealth is increasing . . . for some
• Limited government funding
• Concern over climate change is growing
• Increased congestion impacts our economy and
  daily lives
• An unacceptable traffic fatality rate exists today

18
International Cooperation
15th World Congress on Intelligent Transport
Systems November 16-20, 2008 www.itsworldcongress.
org