by Michael Gerbis, P.Eng. President, The Delphi Group

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byMichael Gerbis, P.Eng.President, The Delphi
Group

• Innovation climate change
• Igniting the Next Industrial Revolution

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Overview

• The Delphi Group
• Climate Change where are we?
• The New Carbon Marketplace
• Thinking Out of the Box!
• Attributes to Thrive and Survive
• Discussion

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The Delphi Group

• In Business since 1987
• Catalyze Change Through Innovative Strategies
  that Generate Environmental, Social and Financial
  Dividends
• Environment Clean Energy Technologies
• Climate Change Sustainable Energy
• Health and Environment
• EXCEL, EECO, GLOBE and Corporate
• 1997 2001 Tripled Size and Revenues

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THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
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International consensus

• Earth is warming
• 7 of 10 warmest years on record in the 1990s
• IPCC projected range 1.0 - 3.5º C over next 100
  years
• Discernible human influence
• Trend to Continue Resulting in Impacts
• more extreme weather events (insurance!!)
• human health, environment, economy, ocean levels,
  river and lake systems, agriculture, tourism
• Canada more affected than most countries because
  of its large size northern land mass

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Impacts of Climate Change
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Climate Change

• UNFCCC (1992)
• The Kyoto Protocol (1997)
• Agreed to 5.2 reductions of GHG
• CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC, SF6
• Flexibility Mechanisms (CDM, JI, IET) sinks
• Critical Dates Timelines
• 1990 baseline
• 1998-2008 transition period
• 2008-2012 budget period

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CANADAS EMISSIONS PROJECTIONAND THE KYOTO TARGET
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Projected GHG EMISSIONS BY PROVINCE
MT CO2 - equivalent
40
17
10
38
40
23
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Alberta
Atlantic
Quebec
Ontario
Manitoba
B.C. and Territories
Sask.
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Pathway to sustainability
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The Path to Sustainable Energy

• BIOMASS
• Dung
• Wood
• Straw

FOSSIL FUELS Coal Oil Natural
Gas

• Renewables
• Solar
• Wind
• Biomass
• Geothermal

• ?
• Fusion
• Hydrogen
• Tidal/wave

nuclear
Carleton University 2002
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The Emerging Carbon Marketplace

• Converging Forces
• Trend towards Sustainable Energy
• Rapid Innovation
• Global Energy Market Reform
• Concern over health impacts
• Kyoto Potential
• Opportunity Risk

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The Product of Convergence
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corporate Risks

• Uncertainty Factor
• Intl Process Devils in Details
• National Leadership (lack thereof)
• Cost, cost, costbenefits?
• Rate of Return Price of Credits Unknown
• Share-Value Exposure
• Differentials in GHG emissions
• Decreasing Value of Capital Stock
• Production, expansion, acquisitions
• Relative Impact on Global Competitors

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Corporate Opportunities

• Gain Competitive Advantage
• Productivity, Energy Efficiency
• Differentiate Yourself from Competitors
• Hedge Your Bets Offset Future Risk
• Added Value through Offset Credits
• Diversification
• Leverage technology and RD
• Exploit new markets
• Create new value-added business ventures
• Enhance Shareholder Value

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Leaders laggards

• Four Levels of Action
• Strategic Integration
• Sitting on Fence (Baselines Being Done)
• Not on the Radar Screen Yet
• Moving against the flow
• Leaders Moving Ahead
• BP, Shell Intl, Transalta, DuPont, Suncor
  Energy, OPG, Alcan, Dofasco
• Cities of Toronto, Calgary, Banff, Halifax
• Denmark, UK, Netherlands

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Emerging Innovation

• 600 diversified firms
• Generally High-tech solutions
• Strong RD
• 3 billion 23,000 jobs
• Global Market between 150 - 400 billion
• Increasing 5/yr

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Many companies see opportunities
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So What Does This Have to Do with me?

• New Business Realities gt Next Industrial
  Revolution
• Radical Increases in Resource Productivity
• Biomimicry
• Evolution From Manufacturing to Service and Flow
  Economy
• Increasing Investment in Natural Capital
• Taken from Natural Capitalism by P. Hawken, A.
  H. Lovins

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IndustryThinking out of the box

• Interface New Factory in Shanghai had a 92
  energy saving by new design
• Looked at whole pumping system and discarded old
  style of economics
• Sized pumps based on large pipes rather than
  small pipes (50 increase in dia 86 drop in
  friction)
• Installed pipes first then equipment
• 12 fold reduction in energy, simpler and faster
  construction, less floor space, easier
  maintenance, and better performance (e.g. saved
  70 kW of heat loss)
• Taken from Natural Capitalism by P. Hawken, A.
  H. Lovins

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Buildingsthinking out of the boxThe
International Netherlands Group (ING) Bank

• 540,000 ft2
• Strong Vision a Multidisciplinary Team
• 3 Year Process Everyone Had to Understand
  Everything
• Added Capital 700k
• Annual Energy Savings of 2.9 mil (1996) / 1/10th
  
• 15 reduction in absenteeism

Taken from Natural Capitalism by P. Hawken, A.
H. Lovins
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TransportationThinking out of the box

• Whole-system design
• ultra light low-drag hybrid-electric efficient
  accessories
• 3 to 5 x better fuel economy
• equal or better performance, safety,
  affordability

http//www.rmi.org/sitepages/pid386.asp
Taken from Natural Capitalism by P. Hawken, A.
H. Lovins
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thinking out of the boxMaunsell Aberfeldy
Golf Club Footbridge Bridge

• Major span 63 m
• 1st major advanced composite footbridge
• Maunsell worked with Dundee Univ. engineering
  students who provided the bridge erection team.
• Assembled in 10 weeks, no craneage, minimal
  foundations, 20 yr maintenance schedule

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thinking out of the boxClean Development
Mechanism (CDM)

• Market-based mechanism
• Assist Annex 1 countries to comply with their
  reduction targets under Kyoto
• Increase rate of return, financial attractiveness
• Reduce risk and enhance markets
• Sustainable Development
• Build developing country capacity
• Transfer state-of-the-art technologies
• Environmental and health co-benefits

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Attributes to THRIVE survive

• Breadth of Understanding
• Strong technical skills
• Business Savvy but its not just about old
  style economics
• Interpersonal Communication Skills
• Ability to Think Out of the Box (and assess
  different perspectives)
• Work within a Fear of Change
• Be Adaptable

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Thinking Out of the Box
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thinking out of the box

• Innovation is not always about having a new
  idea, more often its about stopping having an
  old idea."

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The Delphi Group

• For More Information Contact
• Mike Gerbis, P.Eng.
• President, The Delphi Group
• 428 Gilmour St.
• Ottawa, Ontario K2P 0R8
• Tel [phone] Fax [phone]
• email mgerbis_at_delphi.ca
• Website www.delphi.ca