Ian Pearson

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Ian Pearson A trip into the future
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Accelerating business life
Faster and Faster
Our Competitors
Us
You cant capture market share by working harder
since your competitors are too
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Misuse of IT

• Inappropriate or excessive managerial use of IT
  can destroy productivity and staff loyalty
  commitment!
• Main problems are
• micromanagement centralisation

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Storage
Migration to hard disk storage as capacity
increases, because of convenience
Hard drives
Recordable DVDs
Simplicity of TV world, no crashes No virus S/W
or security updates
Very high capacity, but usually tied to one
appliance
Time shifting
PCs
TiVo
Sky plus
Migration to memory cards for portable
applications limited by cost and capacity
Memory cards
Network
TV
Some migration to storage based distribution As
DVDs increase in capacity and fall in cost
MP3 Players
PC Media server
Portability
Library
MPEG4 Players
Cameras
Ultra-portable multi-purpose, universal access
via USB port Low capacity but growing fast
3G phones
Video on demand services No need to buy outright
Some migration to network based storage For
shared videos/photos etc
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Changing business
If your business environment is changing rapidly,
a 5 year plan is a dead weight. You need agility
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Major evolutionary pressures

• Convergence of industries
• Lots of green fields to capture
• Lots of areas dying too
• Globalisation and changing business models
• Elite wont want to be employees
• Critical points for AI development
• Hostile political environment

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ICT technology evolution
Bandwidth to home
Virtual worlds
Age of simplicity
Ambient Intelligent World
Broadband networked economy
Narrowband islands
Lots of analogue sensing/processing
Largely digital virtual world
Analogue local loop
Digital
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Ongoing convergence
Nano, Bio, Info, Cogno
intelligence
robotics
Opportunity explosion
telecomms
nanotech
positioning
biotech
computing
energy
sensors
materials
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Convergence
Convergence means lots of new green fields The
really big markets are at the boundary where the
convergent industries merge but It is very hard
for companies in the original fields to capture
them New business models like fungal companies
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2007 Portable
E - Cash
Video
Phone
E-Mail
Camera
PDA
AMI Interface
Web Projector
I/O
Natural Language Processor



HND
H2G2
Navigator
Digital Filter
Bubble
Biometrics
Games
Health Monitor
Storage
ID
Business
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Smart environments -Ambient Intelligence
Physical -tags, activators, sensors
Cyberspace - data, algorithms, services
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Ambient intelligence
Environment rich in processors, tags, data
stores, sensors and communicators. Sensor
networks will monitor environment
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Ultra-simple systems biomimetics biokleptics
Robustness
Adapting ideas from nature Emerging Security,
adaptive viruses etc Low cost, reliable, robust,
efficient
Self organisation
Simplicity v complexity
Nature
Use of emergence
Evolution
Adaptability
Cluster differentiation
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Digital bubble / Ego badge
Intelligent information exchange between digital
bubbles using jewellery
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Cultural Pollution
Marketing
Art
Relationships
Opinion
Culture
Personality
Poems
Graffiti
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Digital bubbles
Bubbles can link to emotion detection, medical
monitoring, thought recognition. Communication
via skin, or radio. Powering needs nanoscale
devices for energy harvesting or use of fuel
cells.

• Intelligent data exchange between multi-layer
  bubbles and between appliances within bubbles

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Active contact lens - virtual retinal display
Augmented reality allows 3D computer-generated
information and images to be overlaid on real
world Natural communication, information,
navigation uses
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Virtual worlds adding value to the real world
Graphics chips will offer lifelike, real time
images to make virtual environments for business,
shopping, education, socialising, games and
leisure. High speed networks will enable people
to interact remotely. Eventually we will be able
to produce full sensory environments that
approximate to actually being there!
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Duality

• People and buildings can emit an interactive
  digital aura using wireless LAN
• This gives a dual appearance
• Real world - same for everyone
• Virtual world - depends on who is looking at you,
  dynamic
• Architects and fashion designers will have to
  design for both the real and virtual worlds, and
  will have to work closely with marketeers

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Duality invaders

• Who controls what your customers see, them or
  you, or someone else?
• Google Earth could make more from your buildings
  than you do
• Who owns the cyberspace in your building? How
  many layers do you have? How many do your
  competitors have inside your building? Which is
  best?

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Digital mirror
Can see yourself as you want to be, not as you
are Can use with active makeup, change look all
through the day Can tweak your video image for
use on-line
Can be used for electronic makeup and clothing
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Active skin video tattoos
Body adornment Video tattoos Smart makeup Smart
perfumery Digital aura
Wearable layer
Detachable layer
Transfer layer
Skin
Mid-term layer
Epidermis
Permanent layer
Dermis
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Nerve connection for sensory monitoring and
stimulation
Signals on nerve fibre can be intercepted,
analysed, transmitted to devices at upper layer,
recorded, reproduced and re-injected into nerve
fibre
Transfer layer device
Processing electronics
Skin
Thin Wire
Nerve fibre
Removable layer device
Nerve connection
Signal to from removable device
Transfer layer device
Processing electronics
Signal to from nerve
Side views
Nerve fibre
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Marketing evolution
Computer games
AmI
Many new opportunities to link real and virtual
worlds. You can sell totally virtual products or
link real products to virtual items in games
environments
Smart environments
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AI productivity
Today
Tomorrow
Human
Human
Machine
Machine
The information economy will largely move into
the machine world. People will have access to
machine enhancement of their creativity.
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OB1 - optical brain mk1
1 trillion neurons in 100ml gel 1 billion times
more powerful than brain, with up to 2 million
emotions unlimited senses Could be
conscious Could be criminal Can be linked to
other devices via the net
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Smart bacteria
Hybrid self- reproducing bacteria that contain
synthetic processing and memory but exist and
compete in both natural world and cyberspace
Custom DNA
Molecular circuit assembled by cell
1 micron
Bacteria linked together via infrared, to make
sophisticated self organising circuits
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Revaluation of human skills Today, many people
work as smart machines

• Tomorrow, they will have to work as people

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Care economy?
Perceived value of community social wellbeing
Value of physical/ intellectual work
time
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Globalisation
Machine intelligence changes nature of work.
Digital networked economy
Ambient intelligence world
Care economy
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Hippy revival
Technology becoming invisible
Holistic wellbeing
Falling confidence in authority
Awareness of spiritual vacuum
Money isnt everything
Nouveau Hippies
Social Focus
Emotions back in fashion
Rejection of consumerism
Spirituality in fashion
Love for fellow man
New age pseudo eastern practices
Slow lane movement
Anti - science
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Thank you
ian.d.pearson_at_bt.com www.btinternet.com/ian.pear
son