Francia B' Avila

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• The Philippines
• The Manila Observatory
• Research initiatives
• Looking forward

• Francia B. Avila
• Project Research Assistant
• Regional Climate Systems Program
• Manila Observatory, Philippines
• The Asian Monsoon System Prediction of Change
  and Variability
• 2-12 January 2008, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA

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Background The Philippines
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• Geologically active region
• (Pacific Ring of Fire)
• The Philippine plate is essentially being
  squeezed by Pacific plate and Eurasian plate
• Volcanic eruptions
• Seismicity volcanic tectonic
• Tsunami, landslides, lahar

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ALBAY MUDSLIDE (DEC 2006)
SEISMICITY MAP (1907-2002)
Seismicity map of the Philippines (1907-2002),
data from PhiVolcs database Mayon Volcano,
courtesy of John Ong Guinsaugon Landslide,
courtesy of U.S. Navy Photo by Photographer's
Mate 1st Class Michael D. Kennedy
(http//www.navy.mil/view_single.asp?id32073)
GUINSAUGON LANDSLIDE (FEB 2006)
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• Complex Topography
• 7,107 islands 36,289 km of coastline
• Tsunami, storm surge, sea level rise
• Complex network of rivers and streams
• Many low-lying areas flooding
• Mountainous terrain landslides
• Growing Population (88.7M)
• Urban centers
• High-risk areas
• Socio-economic issues
• High incidence of poverty
• Political instability
• Increasing number of OFWs

7,107 islands, 36,289 km of coastline (from
Wikipedia) fromWEPA (http//www.wepa-db.net/pol
icies/state/philippines/overview.htm) 2007
projection, from www.census.gov.ph
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• Tropical climate 2 seasons
• Tropical cyclones
• Monsoon
• ENSO
• Extreme weather events geological hazards

TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS (1951-2003)
ENSO RAINFALL
Tropical Cyclone tracks in the Western North
Pacific (1951-2003) courtesy of Digital-Typhoon
(http//agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digi
tal-typhoon/) ENSO anomaly from Anglo and Avila.
Manila Observatory.
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• Tropical climate 2 seasons
• Tropical cyclones
• Monsoon
• ENSO
• Extreme weather events geological hazards

TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS (1951-2003)
AVERAGE MONTHLY RAINFALL (1950-2000)
Tropical Cyclone tracks in the Western North
Pacific (1951-2003) courtesy of Digital-Typhoon
(http//agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digi
tal-typhoon/) ENSO anomaly from Anglo and Avila.
Manila Observatory.
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Mean monthly and annual tropical cyclone
frequency maps for the Western Pacific
(1945-2003)
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• 1865 Manila Observatory
• Spanish Jesuits (Fr. Federico Faura)
• 1879 typhoon warnings
• (1884 weather bureau, Spanish colonial
  government)
• 1880 earthquake observations
• 1877 seismology section
• 1899 astronomical studies
• (1901 Philippine Weather Bureau, US colonial
  government)

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• WW II
• Government agencies formed PAGASA, PhiVolcs
• 1951 seismology, ionosphere studies (Baguio
  City)
• 1963 seismic, geomagnetic and radio physics
  research, solar physics (Quezon City, Davao City)
• 1990 environmental physics
• 2000 climate studies

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Research work at the Manila Observatory is
increasingly being done by young lay partners and
less by the Jesuits themselves. Several Ph.D.s
have returned but most are currently doing
graduate studies abroad.
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Current Programs

• Climate Change Assistance
• Urban Air Quality
• Instrumentation and Technology Development
• Regional Climate Systems
• Socio-Environmental Geomatics
• Solid Earth Dynamics/Geomagnetic Studies

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Major activities

• Risk mapping
• Early-warning systems
• Rapid-response during disasters
• Education and information communication
• Research

The Manila Observatory is a research institution
but the current state of government support
systems calls for the academe, private sector,
non-government organizations and international
agencies to collaborate in order to provide for
the more urgent needs of the most vulnerable in
society especially in the event of disasters.
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GEOMATICS FOR ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT
(2005)
Project web site http//www.observatory.ph/vm/
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Disaster risk and multiscale poverty mapping
GEOMATICS FOR ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT

• Remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems
  (RS-GIS)
• Development-critical elements (e.g. Food,
  non-food, water and sanitation, infrastructure,
  livelihood clusters, urban poor settlements)
• Environmental resources (e.g. Energy, air, water,
  land)
• Disaster risk-prone / vulnerable areas

Courtesy of Center for Environmental Geomatics
(CEG), Dr. Celine Vicente and Engr. Joel de Mesa
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Climate Change Adaptation Disaster Risk
Management (CCA-DRM) in the Mag-Asawang Tubig
Watershed, Oriental Mindoro
CUTTING ACROSS PROGRAMS UTILIZING CO-BENEFITS
The pilot community is the Mag-Asawang Tubig
Watershed, Oriental Mindoro, an area vulnerable
to BOTH geophysical (landslides, earthquake,
tsunami) and climate-related (extreme rainfall
and flooding) hazards, requiring multi-hazard
present and future risk analysis.
Courtesy of the CCA-DRM team led by John Ong,
Kendra Castillo and Dr. Celine Vicente
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Telemetric Rain Gauge

• early-warning system
• SMS alert messages
• rainfall database
• convergence of enabling technologies (GSM
  network, low-cost microelectronics, PV systems)
• empowerment of local communities

INSTRUMENTATION AND TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT
Courtesy of the ITD Program Dr. James B. Simpas,
Rolly Choy, Nino Uy and Genie Lorenzo
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Albay mudslide(Dec 2006)

• Volcanic eruption of Mt. Mayon, mid-2006
• Typhoon Durian (30 Nov 1 Dec 2006)
• Lahar flows due to heavy rainfall affected
  populated areas

Mayon
Taal
Bulusan
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Typhoon Durian 30 November to 1 December
2006 Maximum sustained winds 190 kph with gusts
of up to 225 kph Overview map courtesy of UNOSAT
(http//unosat.web.cern.ch/)
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(No Transcript)
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Tabaco City
Daraga
Legaspi City
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(No Transcript)
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Leyte landslide (Feb 2006)

• Heavy rains in the area for several days prior to
  landslide event
• Minor earthquake reportedly occurred before the
  landslide event
• Area lies along major fault line
• Buried entire village, including a schoolhouse
  filled with children

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Cumulative rainfall in the region based on the
Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis of the
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)
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Topographic map of Guinsaugon and the surrounding
area Data source Global Land Cover Facility
(SRTM_u03_p113r053)
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(No Transcript)
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Continuous heavy rains threatened the safety of
the search and rescue teams which led to the
PINOY RAIN GAUGE
MEASURED IN mm
Straight can
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Project rain gauge

• Rain gauges (both manual and telemetric) are
  currently being deployed in schools and remote
  communities throughout the country
• Enable communities to respond better to impending
  disasters
• http//www.klima.ph/cd4cdm/smart/
• Increase number of observation stations in the
  country

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Education and information dissemination

• Disaster risk science 101
• Hydrological cycle
• Geological hazards
• Climate and weather-related hazards
• 3-D mapping
• Community rain gauge
• Data access
• Interpretation of near real-time data
• Information hub (tropical cyclone forecasts)

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Research Regional Climate Systems

• Weather forecasting
• Tropical cyclone tracks and related rainfall
  (MM5)
• Climate diagnostics
• Update of the Coronas Climate types (SOM)
• Rainfall and TC variability
• Tropical cyclone climatology
• Climate change detection and impact studies

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TC Mitag Nov 2007
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(No Transcript)
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SOM Rainfall Patterns
Type A
Type B
Type C
Type D
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Rainfall
EOF 1 81.91 12 Mo-Monsoon
EOF 2 9.67 12Mo
EOF3 2.57 12Mo
EOF4 1.47 21.1034
EOF 1 43.27 25.5 Mo 29.1429 Mo TBO?
EOF 2 18.90 6.753 Mo
EOF3 9.87
EOF4 7.46
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Rainfall patterns during ENSO events
EL NINO
LA NINA
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Climate variability Monthly Rainfall
EOF 1 43.27 25.5, 29.14 Months (TBO?)
EOF 2 18.90 6.75 Months - ?
EOF 1 81.91 12 Months (Monsoon)
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Tropical cyclones
EOF 1 40.57 12Mo-Monsoon
EOF 2 14.42 12Mo 6Mo
EOF3 7.12 4Mo
EOF4 4.97 12Mo
EOF 1 20.76 13.3Mo 47.0769Mo-ENSO
EOF 2 13.86 6.12Mo
EOF3 8.96 5.36Mo
EOF4 5.50 7.556Mo
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Climate variability Tropical cyclones
EOF 1 20.76 13.3, 47.08 Months (ENSO?)
EOF 2 13.86 6.12 Months -?
EOF 1 40.57 12 Months (Monsoon)
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Tropical Cyclone Climatology

• Update our understanding of typhoon frequency and
  impacts
• Find out how the El Niño-La Niña cycle influences
  typhoon behavior
• Determine how typhoons have changed over the
  decades

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Changes in Mean Annual Rainfall

• Significant reduction over NE Luzon
• Significant increase over Western Visayas during
  La Niña

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Geographic Trends in Tropical Cyclones
Annual increase in number of TCs. Shading
indicates where p ? 0.01. (From Anglo 2005).

• Number of tropical cyclones appearing in the
  Western Pacific has been increasing
• In RP, rise in TC crossings is most pronounced
  over Visayas
• Other studies show peak wind speeds of TCs have
  also been rising, magnifying their damage

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Climate Change Impacts
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Impact of Rainfall Change on Major Croplands in
Mindanao
Difference in mean annual rainfall (1976-2000
minus 1951-1975) and major croplands. Blue hash
indicate location of major croplands. Red
shading indicate intensity of impact with lighter
(darker) shade indicating lower (higher) impact.
From Villarin and Avila, 2006.
Rainfall data from the Climate Research Unit,
Univ. of East Anglia. Land cover data from Center
for Sustainability and the Global Environment web
site (http//www.sage.wisc.edu/iamdata/grid.php)
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Looking forward . . .

• Build an infrastructure which can provide timely
  and accurate information for use as an early
  warning as well as support for relief/aid
  operations (e.g. SERVIR)
• Determine methodology for effective short-term
  (extreme events, TC) and seasonal forecasts
  (application to Agriculture, water mgt, etc)
• Regional climate projections (impact)

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Challenges

• Human power
• Access to research tools
• Lack of collaboration among government agencies
  and academic community
• Financial constraints
• Funder-driven research goals

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Reasons to hope

• MS Atmos Sc program (ADMU-PAGASA)
• Growing number of PhDs training opportunities
• Internet, human network increased collaboration
• Government growing awareness of the need for
  collaboration and cooperation urgency to act
• Support from local communities (govt, NGOs)
• New funding opportunities (research-oriented)

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Mabuhay!

• www.observatory.ph

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Come and visit the Philippines!