Automotive Electronics: A Blueprint for the Future

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Automotive ElectronicsA Blueprint for the Future

• Martin Baker
• CEO, Invirtech
• ViEWcon09
• Detroit, February 4, 2009

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Agenda

• Trends and Challenges
• Growth, Technology Evolution, Complexity, Speed,
  Quality, Cost, etc.
• Synthesis the Future
• Super-integration, separation of SW and HW, rise
  of architects and system integrators,
  virtualization.
• Implications
• Current OEMs, Tier 1s, Tool suppliers, etc
• New entrants

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Agenda

• Trends and Challenges
• Synthesis the Future
• Implications

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The Challenges

• THE Innovative Technology
• 95 of new features SW controlled
• Exponential Feature/SW Growth
• 2M to 10M LOC in 5 years, accelerating
• Distributed, Interactive Features
• 60 of all new features MUST be distributed
• Business
• Time to Market (consumer electronics)
• Cost, Resources
• Engineering far more complex

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Key Trends

• Moores Law
• Multiple Sources of IP
• Autosar, Green Hills, etc.
• Disaggregation of Hardware and Software
• Pervasive connectivity
• Unpredictable innovation
• Safety standards
• Model-Based Approaches, Virtualization

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Agenda

• Trends and Challenges
• Synthesis the Future
• Implications

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Synthesis Future Architecture

• Super-integrated Architecture
• A few, large controllers handle bulk of control.
  
• Remote I/O nodes, smart sensors/actuators
• Separation of safety elements within ECU
• Small ECUs for some low-take/new features.
• Why?
• Saves 50-250 per car
• Interactions easier to manage, bus load down
• Give-away avoided by ECU families
• Computing power, AutoSAR etc enables

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Synthesis Future Software sourcing

• Software sourced separately
• Multiple SW components in each ECU
• Demands standard SW architecture and interfaces
  (e.g. AutoSAR)
• Why?
• Tracks sourcing of IP
• Enables re-use of most critical element
• Enables feature sourcing
• Done correctly, reduces time to market for
  innovation

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Synthesis Future Roles

• Two roles dominate
• Architect
• Systems Integrator
• Why?
• Architecture critical to cost, expandability
• SW and Functional architectures now critical
• Integration now the biggest challenge in
  automotive
• Tier 1 integration no longer a good option

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Synthesis Future Process

• Model Based/Virtualization Essential
• Correct by design approach
• Work done earlier, at higher level
• Exploits growing tool capabilities
• Why?
• Complexity overwhelms physical approaches
• Interfaces driven inside ECUs, no more black
  box
• Only way to meet combined speed, efficiency and
  quality challenges

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Agenda

• Trends and Challenges
• Synthesis the Future
• Implications
• Existing Players
• New Entrants

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Implication for OEMs

• Engineering approaches must change
• Distributed features require feature/function
  engineering axis separate from hardware axis
• Architecture design/spec must be more detailed,
  (esp. SW) and more forward looking
• Need system integration capability
• Culture challenge
• Mechanical history, culture, process
• Product evolving to become primarily electronic

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Implication for OEMs (cont)

• Value Chain critical
• Greater competition in HW supply
• Re-use of IP/models/SW key to managing complexity
• Delegation of risk/responsibility harder
• Power to drive Process/Method/Tools
• Drive virtualization, demand models, drive tool
  integration

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Implication for Tier 1s

• Facing the biggest threat
• Most affected by recession
• Most affected by technology change
• Who owns the value chain?
• Disaggregation of SW and HW threatens existing
  model
• Large OEMs may insource, small/med OEMs more
  dependent on Tier 1
• Opportunity to sell more IP/SW, less HW
• Collaboration unavoidable
• No-one can own all the IP.

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Implication for Tier 2s

• Software
• Easier to enter market (no longer HW barrier)
• Hardware
• Easier to enter market (no longer SW barrier)
• Re-ordering of EE and ME
• As E/E becomes more dominant, todays E/E Tier 2s
  may replace todays Mechanical Tier 1s
• Distressed Tier 1 suppliers may create unexpected
  opportunities

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Implication for Tool/Method Suppliers

• Likely to stay fragmented for some time
• Underlying technologies still evolving
• Different tools for different domains
• Many tools still maturing
• Benefits from integration/automation are massive
• Open architecture/exchange format key
• Be realistic about how much of this market you
  can truly serve
• New roles drive new tools and methods

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Opportunities for New Entrants

• Software only
• Entry barriers reduced, smaller entrants possible
• Standard OS, architectures sell to multiple
  customers
• Disinterested System Integrator
• Outsourcing at lower levels of V
• Off-board/Cloud Computing
• New Tools and Methods
• Virtualization
• Automation
• Integration

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Summary

• Exciting times!
• Challenges have never been greater
• Some distinct changes in future
• Super-integration
• Separation of SW from HW sourcing
• Rise of Architect and Systems Integrator
• Model Based approaches essential

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Summary (cont)

• Both threats and opportunities
• For existing players
• For new entrants
• Virtualization one of the key themes
• Speed, Efficiency
• Management of complexity
• Game changer new entrants

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Thank you!Questions?