IMC Paper Market Update 6/26/08 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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IMC Paper Market Update 6/26/08

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IMC Paper Market Update 62608 – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: IMC Paper Market Update 6/26/08


1
Midland NationalFresh ideas on paper
  • IMC Paper Market Update 6/26/08
  • Tom Pankow, GM Procurement Strategy

2
Who is Midland Paper?
  • One of largest independent fine paper merchants
    in the U.S.
  • Privately held, under current ownership since
    1983. We have been in business for over 100
    years
  • Midland is now over 750MM in sales annually
  • I joined Midland in 2006 as GM Procurement
    Strategy
  • Prior to joining Midland, I spent 11 years with
    Meredith Corp. where I was responsible for
    directing all aspects of the paper procurement
    operation (gt155M tons gt145MM annually) and
    consulting on print procurement
  • Prior to joining Meredith, I spent 9 years with
    Quebecor World 4 years in paper purchasing and
    5 years in manufacturing management

3
Paper Market Snapshot
  • The fifth price increase in the past 13 months
    has been announced for July 1st shipments
  • The increases impact all grades of paper, and
    range from 2.50 to 3/cwt
  • There are holes in mill schedules, however,
    this is typical for Q2. The market is forecast
    to firm for most grades, especially groundwood
    grades as we enter Q3
  • Many producers are offering to pre-make Q3/Q4
    tons now to ensure delivery because their
    customer forecasts suggest that demand will far
    exceed production capacity in Q3
  • Demand forecasts for LWC and high end SC papers
    are especially strong and many producers of these
    products are bullish on Q3 Q4. The recent news
    that Katahdin Paper will shut its 180M TPY SC
    machine at the end of July was quickly followed
    by price increase announcements for shipments
    on/after July 1
  • The Katahdin shut represents a North American
    capacity reduction of SCA equal to 12
  • NewPage announced that they will take 25M tons of
    machine down time in June/July across their
    coated platform and that they will cease
    production at their Niagara mill by June 22. The
    net effect of these actions is a reduction of
    North American coated capacity of approximately
    60M tons in 2008.
  • US dollar remains weak compared to currencies of
    key trading partners (Euro Canada)
  • The weak dollar makes exports of paper from
    Canada and especially Europe unattractive and has
    lead to an increase in exports from the US,
    further tightening the market.
  • Pulp, energy and other material input costs
    continue to hit new records, placing pressure on
    paper mills to continue raising prices to cover
    these cost increases in an effort to survive.
  • Evidence suggests that real demand for paper has
    fallen significantly due to the paper and postal
    cost increases, the weak economy and slack
    consumer confidence. Paper producers, printers
    and end users of all types are struggling to
    survive the current market situation as they
    endure challenges from all sides.

4
RISI Market Pricing for Key PW Grades
5
Exchange Rates are Currently Unfavorable for
Exports to the US Market
6
US Imports fall due to weak US
7
Printer Held Inventory Very High Compared to
Consumption
8
Catalog Circulation Hurt by Postal Rate
Increases. Circs down 2.2 Q1 YOY
9
Magazine Ad Pages tumble 6.4 in Q1 YOY.
  • Categories up 1Q 08
  • Food Products 19.4
  • Retail 1.8
  • Media Advertising 1.1
  • Categories down 1Q 08
  • Automotive - 21.3
  • Technology - 16.3
  • Home Furnishing Supplies - 15.5
  • Direct Response Companies - 14.1
  • Toiletries Cosmetics - 8.9
  • Apparel Accessories - 5.8
  • Financial Insurance and Real Estate - 5.6
  • Drugs Remedies - 4.3
  • Public Transportation, Hotel Resorts - 0.3
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