J'P' Morgan Slide Template

1
June 2002
Creative Problem Solving and Critical Reasoning
Douglas Abrams - Parallax Consulting
2
What is the difference between creativity and
creative problem solving?

• All creativity is creative problem solving
• Not sure?
• Be creative

3
Creativity Problem-solving

• You cant be creative without a problem
• Problem-solving causes you to stretch your
  thinking
• If no solution exists, you must be creative to
  find one
• If a solution exists, you can still create a
  better one

4
Even creative artists are solving problems

• Blank canvas
• Block of marble
• Using perspective to create dimensionality
• Communicating a vision

5
What problem is this artist solving?
6
Look at things differently
7
The QWERTY keyboard

• Why are the keys on the typewriter keyboard
  arranged the way that they are?
• QWERTY, ASDFG, etc.
• Do you think this is the optimal layout?

8
It was designed to reduce typing speed

• The arrangement was chosen to maximize the
  distance between the most frequently typed
  letters
• Early typewriters used mechanical arms which
  would jam when two were struck at the same time
• Alternative keyboards improve typing speed by
  5-10
• Bandwagon effect maintains the inferior standard

9
Calendars and clocks

• Why is the day divided into twenty-four hours?
• Why are there only twelve hours on a clock face?
• Why are there seven days in a week?
• Were the concepts of time different before
  calendars and clocks?

10
Twenty-four hours

• Egyptians used sexagesimal number system
  developed by Babylonians, based on multiple of
  sixes
• 60 was a special number to the Babylonians
• Early clocks measured daylight hours separately
  from nighttime, resulting in 12 hour clock faces

11
Why a seven-day week?

• The ancient Greeks had no week
• Ancient Romans had an eight-day week farmers
  worked for 7 days and came to town on the eighth
  day for market
• The Romans changed to a seven-day week around the
  third century A.D.
• Days of the week still bear the names of the
  then-known seven planets in European languages
• Seven is a special number in many cultures

12
Before clocks and calendars

• People marked time only by the cycles of nature
• Changing seasons
• Waxing and waning moon
• Time was only kept during the day
• The length of sundial hours varied throughout
  the year

13
Three views of the same reality
14
How can everyone be above average?

• Those who score in the lowest quartile on tests
  of logic, English grammar and humor are also the
  most likely to "grossly overestimate" how well
  they had performed.
• The most able subjects are likely to
  underestimate their own competence
• Vast majority of people rate themselves as "above
  average" on a wide array of abilities
• He who knows best knows how little he knows -
  Thomas Jefferson

15
Can you see the arrow?
16
Ask Why?
?
17
Why is it so difficult to predict the weather?

• The Butterfly Effect
• Sensitive dependence on initial conditions
• Aperiodic systems that repeat themselves but
  never quite
• Weather, animal populations, epidemics
• Non-linear systems

18
Why is it so difficult to predict cotton prices?

• Individual price changes appear random and
  unpredictable
• But the sequence of changes is independent of
  scale
• Curves for daily price changes and monthly price
  changes match perfectly
• Fractals

19
Why are apples red?

• What does an apple tree do?
• Creates more apple trees
• Leaves are green
• Highest contrast color to green is red
• Animals eat apples
• Animals deposit seeds far from tree
• More new apple trees

20
Why do trees grow tall?

• Trees grow tall to reach the sunlight
• Trees compete against one another for sunlight
• Trees can spend energy either in growing tall or
  living longer
• If they could all agree to stay shorter, they
  could all live longer
• Why cant they cooperate?

21
The Prisoners Dilemma

• Two criminals are arrested by the police
• They are held separately and cannot communicate
  with one another. The police offer each of them
  a deal
• If one informs on his partner and the other does
  not inform, the informant will go free, while the
  partner be sentenced to three years in prison.
• If both inform on one another, both will be
  sentenced to two years.
• If neither informs on the other, both will be
  sentenced to one year.
• Both know that the other is offered the same deal.

22
Answer You should always inform

• In a one-shot Prisoners dilemma, you do better
  by informing, no matter what the other person
  does
• If he informs, and you inform, you receive 2
  years instead of the 3 you would have received if
  you did not inform
• If he does not inform, you receive 0 years,
  instead of the 1 you would have received it you
  also did not inform

23
Is this a zero-sum or non-zero sum game?

• Would your answer be the same if you knew that
  you would have to play this game repeatedly with
  the same person? Why or why not?
• What roles do communication and trust play?
• Why is this a dilemma?

24
Exercise What is a computer?
25
Question Define what is a computer?

• You are answering this question for someone who
  has never seen or heard of a computer before but
  in all other respects is in possession of a full
  range of knowledge and understanding.
• Hint "A computer is a labor-saving device" is
  not a good answer.
• Bonus question 1 How does a computer work?
• Bonus question 2 Is it theoretically possible
  to create a computer that is conscious in the
  same way that human beings are conscious?
• In answering the bonus questions, you can assume
  that the questioner already knows what a computer
  is.

26
Answer What is a computer?
27
What do you mean by "What is?"

• Definition
• Description

28
What is a definition?

• Essential qualities
• Exclusive
• General, not specific
• Description is not definition
• Electronic, CPU, keyboard, mouse, store data

29
Why are definitions important?

• Definition precedes classification
• Classification enables analysis
• Analysis allows critical reasoning
• Critical reasoning contributes to creative
  problem-solving

30
Definitions divide the world into two sets

• All computers and only computers are members of
  the computer set
• All non-computers and only non-computers are
  members of the non-computer set

Computer
Non-Computer
31
What is a computer?

• A programmable information-processing device
• Program is internally stored and modifiable
• Input/Output
• Logical operations
• Algorithms
• A universal Turing Machine
• Can emulate multiple devices

32
What is an algorithm?

• 9th century Persian mathematician al-Kohwarizm
  (book titled al jabr)
• Systematic procedure for solving a problem
• For any specific case the procedure will
  definitely terminate
• A definite answer will be obtained in a finite
  number of steps
• At each step it is perfectly clear what the
  operation is to be performed
• Termination point also perfectly clear

33
What algorithmic procedure does this flow-chart
represent?
From The Emperor's New Mind by Roger Penrose
34
Obtaining the remainder from a division of two
natural numbers, A and B
35
What is a Turing Machine?

• Alan Turing - British mathematician
• Concept of a general algorithm
• A general mathematical procedure which could
  solve all the problems of mathematics

36
Characteristics of a Turing Machine

• Discrete set of different possible internal
  states
• Finite in number
• Can deal with input unlimited in size
• Can call upon unlimited storage space
• Can produce an output of unlimited size
• Must examine only those parts of the data or
  previous calculation that it is immediately
  dealing with

37
What does a Turing Machine look like?

• Infinitely long tape with marks on it
• Tape called upon by the device and read moved
  forward and backward as necessary
• Device can place new marks on the tape and
  obliterate old ones
• Same tape is used as output
• Tape runs back and forth through the device until
  the calculation is complete then device halts
  and answer is displayed on the tape

From The Emperor's New Mind by Roger Penrose
38
What does the tape look like?

• Linear sequence of squares, marked with 0s or 1s
• Device reads tape one square at a time, then
  moves one square to the right or left

From The Emperor's New Mind by Roger Penrose
39
What can a Turning Machine do?

• Behavior is determined by its internal state and
  the input
• It changes its state to some other, or possibly
  the same internal state
• It replaces the 0 or the 1 with the same or
  different symbol
• It moves one square either to left or right
• It decides whether to continue the calculation or
  come to a halt

40
How does a Turing Machine calculate?

• Beginning internal state
• Reads first symbol on the tape
• If internal state0 and input1 then, go to
  internal state 13, change the 1 to a zero and
  move one square to the right
• Instructions and data are fed in together data
  demarcated through contraction

41
Example of a Turing Machine UN1
1
From The Emperor's New Mind by Roger Penrose
42
Universal Turing Machine

• Turing machines can be constructed to perform any
  mechanical operation whatever
• Computable, recursive, effective
• Universal Turing Machine
• Takes a specific Turing Machine as initial input
• Can mimic any other Turing Machine
• Modern general purpose computers are Universal
  Turing Machines
• Computers can mimic each other and now other
  devices

43
How does a computer work?

• Hardware on/off switches and memory registers
  (not 0s and 1s) drive
• Software logical and simple mathematical
  operations which
• Perform algorithmic operations
• Which are incorporated into programs
• Which take input information, process it and
  output the results to the user

44
Is it theoretically possible to create a
conscious computer?

• What is consciousness?
• Mind/brain problem
• Chess-playing machines in the 19th Century
• Edgar Allen Poe
• What is the source of consciousness?
• Reductionism - Yes
• Dualism - No
• Vitalism - No
• Complexity theory/quantum physics - Maybe
• Computers have no senses

45
Machine intelligence is growing exponentially

• Machine intelligence will approach and possibly
  surpass human intelligence, as it continues to
  grow at an exponential rate.
• Exponential increase in the rate of change itself
  that will drive the rapid growth of the new
  economy beyond what appear to be today's most
  optimistic projections.

46
Information-processing technologies create
feedback loops
Which produces new information technologies more
quickly
New information technologies create more new
technologies
Which increases the rate of change
Which increase the speed of the global brain
47
Mis-understanding change

• Over-estimation of the short-term rate of
  technological change
• The internet will change everything
• Video-conferencing will replace business travel
• Video-on-demand will replace video rental
• Under-estimation of the mid-to-long term rate of
  technological change
• All of the above are actually true in the
  mid-to-long term

48
Linear versus exponential rates of change

• Short-term change is linear, but mid-to-long-term
  technological change is exponential
• Most changes we observe in daily life are linear
  changes
• Lengthening and shortening of the day
• Seasonal changes in temperature
• Growth in height
• Increases in life-span

49
The rate of technological change is increasing
exponentially
50
Computers have doubled performance every 18 months
Source www.intel.com
51
Exponential increase in computing capacity will
continue beyond Moore's law
Number of calculations per second
The Age of Spiritual Machines
52
The Emperor of China and exponential growth

• A mathematician who had done a great service for
  the Emperor of China was offered any reward he
  desired. He requested that the Emperor put one
  grain of rice on the first square of a chess
  board, then two grains on the next day, and then
  continue doubling the grains every day until the
  board was filled. How many grains of rice would
  he have on the 64th day?

53
By the 64th day, he would have had
9,223,372,036,854,780,000 grains of rice At 10
grains of rice per square inch, this would
require rice fields covering twice the surface
area of the earth, oceans included
54
New types of computing are still being developed

• 3-dimensional chips
• Optical computers
• DNA computers
• Nanotube computers
• Quantum computing

55
In 20 years desktop computers will equal the
computational capacity of the human brain
The Age of Spiritual Machines
Number of calculations per second
56
Three scientific revolutions are underway

• The Quantum revolution
• Almost complete description of matter
• Allows us to understand matter
• The ability to manipulate and create new forms of
  matter
• The computer and internet revolution
• The ability to manipulate and create intelligence
• Digitization and instantaneous global
  distribution
• The bio-molecular revolution
• The ability to manipulate and create life

57
Synergy between the revolutions

• The quantum revolution gave birth to the computer
  revolution
• Transistor
• Laser
• And to the bio-molecular revolution
• X-ray crystallography
• Theory of chemical bonding
• Computers and nanotechnology will drive the
  bio-molecular revolution

58
It is easy to underestimate what can be done in
the long run - especially in computing

• There is a world market for maybe five
  computers. - Thomas Watson, IBM Chairman, 1943
• Computers in the future may weigh no more than
  1.5 tons. - Popular Mechanics, 1949
• Theres no reason for individuals to have a
  computer in their home. - Ken Olson, 1977
• 640K of memory ought to be enough for anybody.
  - Bill Gates, 1981
• The Internet will catastrophically collapse in
  1996. Robert Metcalfe (inventor of Ethernet)

59
A Brave New World

• Intelligent, conscious (?) machines robots
  with common sense
• Intelligence embedded in the environment
• Molecular-sized, self-replicating nano-machines
• Neural implants to extend human intellectual
  capability
• Substrate-independent minds
• Worldwide, instant, always-on connectivity with
  no external devices
• Merging of virtual and physical reality
  cyberscience
• Merging of human and machine intelligence

60
How would we know if a computer was conscious?

• Turing test
• Is your dog conscious? What about Aibo?
• Am I conscious?
• The Zombie problem

61
Objections

• Lack complexity, brain/mind/psyche too complex
• Can't be sentient because everything is
  programmed - Does not understand meaning
  (context)
• Lack instinct, emotions, feelings, subconscious
• Computers can never have feelings because humans
  don't understand feelings

• Not flesh and blood
• Consciousness reserved only for living
• How is consciousness different?
• If man were meant to fly, he would have wings

62
More objections

• Computers cannot solve ambiguous problems
• Machines that respond to human commands cannot
  reason for themselves and cannot have moral
  values
• No initiative require stimulus

• Consciousness requires thought science cannot
  define thought
• No senses
• Computers could be programmed to mimic
  consciousness which would make us believe they
  are conscious - Searles Chinese room

63
Why is this type of problem important

• Description versus definition
• Appearance versus essence
• Communication to others is key to problem-solving
• Expressing/explaining a problem at work
• Much time wasted in getting to the root of the
  problem
• Creates poor communication
• Selling requires explaining the essence of your
  idea
• Description of features does not sell

64
What is life?

• Ability to operate by absorbing energy from the
  environment
• Ability to reproduce
• Undergo genetic change that can be transmitted to
  descendants
• Are computer viruses alive?

65
Sources and suggested reading
66
Parallax Capital Management
For further information please contact Douglas
Abrams via email dka_at_parallaxcapital.com or
telephone [phone] or visit our website
www.parallaxcapital.com
Parallax Consulting offers a range of training
seminars and workshops designed for
entrepreneurs, investors and corporate executives
and managers. Parallax Consulting is a division
of Parallax Capital Management (PCM), an Asian
based, Asian focused alternative investment
manager. PCM was formed in Singapore in April
1999 by three partners who each have over 15
years of relevant experience.