Land Use

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Land Use Historic Trendsand Future Projections

• Oakdale Irrigation DistrictMay 17, 2005

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The Water Resources Plan must meet all five of
OIDs goals1

• Provide long-term protection to OIDs water
  rights
• Address federal, state and local water challenges
• Rebuild/modernize an out-of-date system to meet
  changing customer needs
• Develop affordable ways to finance improvements
• Involve the public in the planning process

1Board Workshop, Dec. 14, 2004
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Each Goal will be evaluated using comprehensive
studies and tools

• Provide long-term protection to OIDs water
  rights
• Address federal, state and local water challenges
• Rebuild/modernize an out-of-date system to meet
  changing customer needs
• Develop affordable ways to finance improvements
• Involve the public inthe planning process

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Frequent involvement ensures toolsand studies
meet OID needs
CEQAStrategy

• Provide long-term protection to OIDs water
  rights
• Address federal, state and local water challenges
• Rebuild/modernize an out-of-date system to meet
  changing customer needs
• Develop affordable ways to finance improvements
• Involve the public inthe planning process

Land Use Today Water Balance 6/05 Infrastructure
7/05
Infrastructure,Resources, LandUse and
WaterSources/Uses Tools
Finance and Rate Model
Strategic Communicationsand Outreach Plan
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Tools will enable identification of alternatives
that achieve goals
Alternatives will include

• Facilities
• Customer service policies
• Financing options

Goals
Tools
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CEQA Process Can Be Initiated When Best Apparent
Alternative is Identified
Goals
Tools
May-July 05
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Agenda

• Introduction
• Historic Land Use Trends
• Future Land Use Projections
• Observations and Conclusions
• Next Steps

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Observations and Conclusions

• Within OID we forecast land use conversions that
  will substantially change the water needs of
  OIDs customers.
• Irrigated agriculture has increased outside of
  the district offering good potential for
  expansion of service.
• There will be less demand for OID supplied water
  inside the district in the future.

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Future land use is the foundation for all of our
subsequent work
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Historic Land Use

• Sources of data
• DWR (1996 and 2004 Land Use Surveys)
• OID billing records
• City/County plans
• Soils and topography
• Grower and industry communications

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2004 Land Use Inside OID
Urban / Industrial(7,700 acres) 12
NativeVegetation /Dryland(3,800 acres) 6
Rice(4,300 acres) 6
Pasture(32,000 acres)48
Deciduous Trees(10,300 acres)15
Corn / Oats(9,000 acres) 13
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2004 Land Use Outside OID
Urban / Industrial(400 acres) 1
Pasture(5,400 acres) 9
Corn / Oats(3,700 acres) 6
Deciduous Trees(6,900 acres)11
Rice(100 acres)0
Native Vegetation /Dryland(46,300 acres)73
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Land Use Change Inside OID
32,200 30,000
12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
1996 2004
Acres
Pasture
Corn / Oats
DeciduousTrees
Rice
Native Vegetation /Dryland
Urban /Industrial
Land Use Type
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Land Use Change Outside OID
52,300 46,300
8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
1996 2004
Acres
Pasture
Corn / Oats
DeciduousTrees
Rice
Native Vegetation /Dryland
Urban /Industrial
Land Use Type
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1996-2004 Deciduous Trees

• Tree acreage increased by 30 (2,400 acres)
  inside OID and by 130 (3,900 acres) outside OID
• In 2004 10,000 acres inside OID,7,000 acres
  outside
• All-time high market price driving aggressive
  plantings now
• Perennial crop (once in, remains inthrough 2025)

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1996-2004 Pasture

• Staying essentially constant inside OID at 32,000
  acres
• Inside OID is moving from large parcels to more
  numerous smaller parcels
• Gains inside OID are in NW and SE areas
• Many smaller parcels in San Joaquin Co.
• Pasture outside of OID is growing rapidly(46
  increase to 4,600 acres)

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1996-2004 Native Vegetation/Dryland

• Significant loss inside OID(-54, -4,400 acres)
• Most remaining native vegetation is not suitable
  for irrigated agriculture development
• Outside decreased by -11, -6,000 acres
• Changes outside occurred mostly on eastern edge
  of OID
• Changes outside to mostly trees and pasture

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Existing Urban Land Use
1990Population
2004Population
Average AnnualGrowth Rate
Area
Oakdale Riverbank Rural OID SOI Area Modesto
11,700 8,500 -- 165,000
17,100 18,500 -- 206,000
2.6 5.3 -- 1.5
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Current Customer Base

• OID currently serves 2,800 ag customers on
  approx. 57,000 assessed acres and 700 domestic
  accounts.
• 40 of OID ag customers are 5 acres or less.
  These compose only 5 of OID-served land
• 60 of OID ag customers are 10 acres or less,
  compose only 12 of OID served land
• 40 of the sub-5 acre parcels in three
  areasCrane-Langworth (19), Tulloch-Frymire
  (11),and Riverbank (11)
• Only 4 of OID ag customers are 40 acres or
  larger, but these customers compose 60 of
  OID-served lands

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Future Land Use - Urban
City of Oakdale

• Next 10 years- steady growth to 29,000
  population, fill in 4 primary areas within 2015
  Growth Area

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Future Land Use - Urban
City of Oakdale

• Next 10 years- steady growth to 29,000
  population, fill in 4 primary areas within 2015
  Growth Area
• Loss of 2,700 acres (800 acres orchards,1,600
  acres of pasture)
• Over next 20 years, projected growth to
  42,000,filling approximately 90 of PSA boundary

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Future Land Use - Urban
City of Oakdale

• Next 10 years- steady growth to 29,000
  population, fill in 4 primary areas within 2015
  Growth Area
• Loss of 2,700 acres (800 acres orchards,1,600
  acres of pasture)
• Over next 20 years, projected growth to
  42,000,filling approximately 90 of PSA boundary
• Loss of additional 3,300 acres (1,300 acres
  orchards, 1,800 acre of pasture)
• Total 20 year acreage of 6,000 acres (10 of
  total)

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Urban Land Use Conclusions

• Primary impact in next 10 years will be City of
  Oakdale Specific Plan areas
• 20-year horizon impacts are primarily along
  future City boundary and Highway 120/108 corridor
• 10 of current OID lands lost to urban growth by
  2025 (vast majority of this land is currently
  irrigated agriculture)
• Ranchette growth limited by County and City
  policies

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Historic and ForecastedTrends Inside OID
35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0
1996 2004 2015 2025
Acres
Pasture
Corn / Oats
Deciduous Trees
Rice
Native Vegetation /Dryland
Urban /Industrial
Land Use Type
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Historic and ForecastedTrends Outside OID
60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0
1996 2004 2015 2025
Acres
Pasture
Corn / Oats
Deciduous Trees
Rice
Native Vegetation /Dryland
Urban /Industrial
Land Use Type
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Geographic Conclusions and Implications for Study

• Urban areas will grow contiguous to urban areas
• Pasture will convert to trees
• Within OID, there is no rationale to predict
  specific clusters of conversion
• Infrastructure Plan and District Service
  Standards need to accommodate geographic
  distribution of crop types
• Opportunities exist for expansion of service

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Results of continuing present practices (the Do
Nothing alternative)
Impact on WaterBalance within OID
Impact on WaterBalance Outside OID
Agriculture Cities/Unincorporated
Increased GW Use and Overall Decreased Demand
Increased GW Use and Increased Demand
Increased GW Use
Increased GW Use
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Future land use is the foundation for all of our
subsequent work
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Land Use Historic Trendsand Future Projections

• Oakdale Irrigation DistrictMay 17, 2005

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2004 Crop Distribution
50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 15,000 1
0,000 5,000 0
Inside OID Outside OID
Acres
Pasture
Corn / Oats
Deciduous Trees
Rice
Native Vegetation /
Urban / Industrial
Dryland
Land Use Type
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Relative Changes 1996-2004
150 100 50 0 -50 -100
Inside OID Outside OID
Percent Change
Native Vegetation/Dryland
Pasture
Corn / Oats
Deciduous Trees
Urban / Industrial
Crop Type
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1996-2004 Corn and Oats

• Associated with dairies as relatively inexpensive
  feed source
• Constant acreages (minor increases)both inside
  (9,000 acres) and outside(3,700 acres)
• Changes in areas mostly inside OID and mostly in
  the south
• New areas outside of OID away from district
  boundaries

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Recent Urban Growth Changes

• City of Oakdales growth contained in City
  planning area. Minimal changes to net OID acreage
• Riverbank fastest growing City, impacts inside
  SOI
• Minimal changes on unincorporated areas within
  OID
• Modesto growth not changing OID Lands
• 1996 to 2004 saw 700 acres of new urban land use
• Urban growth occurring in and around OID, but
  minimal net loss of agricultural lands

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Future Land Use - Urban
Riverbank and Modesto

• Riverbank 10 year growth to 28,000, 20 year
  growth to 34,000
• Projected to fill in current Modesto SOI,
  primarily west and south
• Modesto 10 year growth to 339,000 20 year growth
  to 440,000.
• Existing SOI can absorb 20 year growth

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Future Land Use - Hobby Farm

• New hobby farms likely to focus in existing
  rural estate type sub-divided areas
  with10-acre or smaller parcels
• City and County joint policies restrict
  unincorporated area development, favor
  preservation of ag lands
• OID policy on future hobby farm service and
  acreage limits will influence growth

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Future Land Use - Agriculture

• Trees
• Inside OID - continued conversion
• Outside OID - accelerated conversion driven by
  market
• Pasture
• Inside OID - acreage expected to decrease
• Outside OID will be limited by availability of
  surface water and costs for groundwater

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Future Land Use - Agriculture

• Corn/Oats
• Inside OID - tied to dairy industry and
  inexpensive water
• Outside OID - will be limited by availability of
  surface water and costs for groundwater
• Native Vegetation
• Inside OID - native vegetation essentially
  depleted
• Outside OID - depleting due to conversionto trees