The Great War

1
The Great War

• POWER BALANCE OF POWER STRUCTURAL BARGAINING
  POWER
• PREVENTIVE vs. PREEMPTIVE WARS
• SYSTEMIC NON-SYSTEMIC CAUSES
• IMMEDIATE CAUSES OF WWI
• THE LOGIC OF WORLD WAR I
• WAR OUTCOMES LESSONS
• TRANSFORMATION IN LOGIC OF WAR

2
Concepts of Power

• Tautological uses of power
• Morgenthau all politics is a struggle for power
• As ability to get B to do something that B would
  not otherwise do (R. Dahl, 1957).

3
Power Assets Capabilities

• Tangible Capabilities
• Geography, Military, Economic (Realists)
• WW1 relation between military power economic
  strength (P. Kennedy)
• US Power today less of relative economic primacy
  together with increased overseas commitment
• Intangible
• Moral Authority

4
Capabilities Distribution of Power

• Hegemon
• Superpower
• Great power
• Middle Power
• Small power
• Important mobilization of resources

5
Sources of PowerStructural Power

• Impact on choices and outcomes by determining
  structure
• Agenda-setting (Bachrach Baratz, 1962)

6
Power as a RelationBargaining Power

• Party arithmetic impact on alternatives, add
  issues actors
• Threats, promises and constraints
• Soft Power (J. Nye)
• Coercive Diplomacy (Compellence)
• Deterrence

7
BALANCE OF POWER

• What is BoP?
• Distribution of power
• Classical balance of power
• Policy of Balancing

8
BoP Stability of International System WW1

• Change in the distribution of power as one of the
  causes of war?
• Many actors and uncertainties about their
  commitment to each other
• Assumption major impact on great-power order
• Inevitability of process eco. military
  parameters (Kennedy), intractable strategic
  dilemmas due to structure of international
  alliances irreconcilable interests (Levy)

9
BoP as Distribution of Power

• 3 possibilities
• Multi-polar
• Bi-polar world
• Hegemonic system one power is militarily more
  powerful
• Classical balance of Power historical
  multi-polar systems
• Bandwagoning
• Balancing

10
European Alliance System the Hundred Years
Peace (1815-1914)

• Concert of Europe (1815-1822)
• Concert Downgraded (1822-1854)
• Concert Disintegrates (1854-1870)
• Bismarcks BoP (1870-1890)
• Rigid Alliance System (1894-1914)
• Self-adjusting balance, no major war

11
Bismarcks Defensive Alliances 1970-1890

• League of 3 Emperors Germany, Austria-Hungary,
  Russia (1873)
• Triple Alliance Germany, Austria-Hungary, Italy
  (1882)
• Side deals Reinsurance Treaty with Russia (1887)

12
A Rigid Alliance System (1890-1914)

• End of Bismarcks flexible network of alliances
  (1890)
• Leo von Caprivi offensive vs. defensive
  alliances
• Disengagement of the Reinsurance Treaty w/ Russia
• Franco-Russian Alliance (1894)
• Franco-Anglo Alliance (1898)

13
From Flexible Multi-Polar to Bi-Polar System

• German loses internal external bargaining power
• Fashoda incident Entente Cordiale (1898,
  1904)
• Two opposing blocks Triple Alliance (Germany,
  Austria-Hungary, Italy) vs. Triple Entente
  (France, Russia Great Britain, 1907)
• Security Dilemma

14
Systemic Explanations to WW1

• From flexible alliances to a rigid alliance
  system
• Shift in the distribution of power growth in
  German power, erosion of Russian power

15
Underlying Causes of War

• Resources Second German Reich unification of
  Germany (1871)
• Outward German Expansion
• Franco-Prussian War, 1970-1871 (French
  revanchist lobby)
• Naval land arms race security dilemma
• Colonial ambitions Mittelafrika Mitteleuropa

16
Underlying Causes of War

• Destabilized Russia
• Russo-Japanese War (1904-1905)
• Japanese military power
• Temporary setback Russia

17
Non-systemic Explanations

• Nationalism
• Austro-Hungarian empire ethnic strife
• Southern Slavs want join Serbia
• Dream Greater Serbia
• Survival of the fittest social Darwinism
  perception by Allies of German style (threats)

18
Immediate Causes of World War I

• Bosnia, Sarajevo June 28, 1914 heir to
  Austro-Hungarian throne (Archduke Franz
  Ferdinand) shot and killed by Serb nationalist

19
Immediate Causes of WWI

• The July Crisis
• July 5, 1914 German carte blanche
• July 23 Austrian ultimatum
• July 26 Austria rejects Serbias reply
• July 28 Austria declares war

20
Preferences over Outcomes (Levy)

• Austria-Hungary local wargtcontinental wargt
  negotiated agreementgtworld war
• Serbia negotiated peacegtworld wargt continental
  wargtlocal war
• Germany local wargtnegotiated settlementgt
  continental wargtworld war
• Russia same as Serbia
• Britain negotiated settlementgt local
  wargtgeneralized war, world wargtcontinental war
• France same as Britain

21
How Could Have War been Avoided?

• If firmer British commitment to take action
• If Austria-Hungary had punished Serbia more
  quickly
• If Austria-Hungary had accepted the
  Halt-in-Belgrade Plan
• If Russia had not mobilized immediately after
  Austria-Hungarys declaration of war

22
German Mobilization,The Schlieffen Plan

• Eastern front check mobilizing Russia
• Western front defeat Belgium France (violate
  Belgian neutrality)
• Meet Russian army on Eastern front
• British neutrality?

23
Logic of World War I Austria

• South-Slav problem will deteriorate
• Serbia will become more powerful
• Austria will become weaker, Russia will rise
• Implication Now or never nothing to lose
• Preventive war

24
Logic of World War I Germany

• Yes, preventive war necessary
• Military balance shifting towards Entente
• Russia not ready for war will be in 2 years
• If Russia supports Serbia Britain neutral
• Implication Fight now

25
Logic of World War I Triple Entente

• Stand up to German challenge
• Fail to do so League will crumble
• German Continental Domination
• Implication Accept challenge

26
THE COURSE OF WAR

• Offense-Defense Theory
• Opportunistic Expansion
• Defensive Expansion

27
THE COURSE OF WAR

• Americans join Allied Forces April 6, 1917
• Major economic contribution keep up Allies
  pressure on Central Powers
• Truce signed November 11, 1918

28
TRANSFORMATION IN WAR LOGIC

• Introduction of Total War civilian casualties
  are inevitable (10 mions)
• New technology tank, aircraft, long-range guns
• Inversion of gains costs of war
• Tendency ? inversion in proportion of military to
  civilian casualties

29
Post-War Order

• Peace settlements Versailles treaty (June 28)
  1919 - Art. 231 War Guilt Clause, blame on
  Germany for outbreak of war road to WW2
• Collapse of Austria-Hungary (fragmentation)
• Disintegration of Russian Empire
• German loss of territory and payments
• France gets back Alsace-Lorraine to the east
  Germany loses territory to Poland.
• End of Vasco de Gama era Europes four
  centuries old predominance
• Principles Self-determination and nationality