NATS 101 Lecture 34 Climate Change (cont

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NATS 101 Lecture 34Climate Change (contd)
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The 6th Mass Species Extinction?

• Holocene Extinction A 1998 survey by the
  American Museum of Natural History found that 70
  of biologists view the present era as part of a
  mass extinction event, the fastest to have ever
  occurred.
• Higher temperatures are moving rapidly toward the
  poles
• Can species adapt/move quickly enough to avoid
  extinction?
• Study of 1,700 species found poleward migration
  of 6 km/decade and vertical migration in alpine
  regions of 6 m/decade in past 50 years
• These are within a factor of 2 of the surface
  isotherm migration in the Figure

Hansen et al., 2006
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Trenberth
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CO2 emissions in different regions in 2000 in
terms of emissions per capita (height of each
block) population (width of each block) and
total emissions (product of population and
emissions per capita area of block). Source
M. Grubb, http//www.eia.doe.gov/iea/
Trenberth
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Key Points CO2 Warming

• CO2 levels are rising and will likely double
  relative to pre-industrial levels by 2070.
• The greenhouse relationship between higher CO2
  levels and warmer temperatures is indisputable.
• Even with perfect knowledge of future CO2 levels,
  there is significant uncertainty about how much
  warming would occur and how fast it would occur.
• Model results indicate a 1.5 to 4.5oC global
  warming, with strongest warming in polar regions,
  and an overall increase in global precipitation.
• Shifts in precipitation are much more uncertain.

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What Might We Do?

• Common sense precautionary measures suggest that
  we begin to reduce emissions before enormous
  changes to the climate and ecosystems could
  occur.
• Greenhouse warming is internationally recognized
  as a serious problem.
• Kyoto Protocol is a start, but the Congress and
  Executive branches have refused to ratify it or
  to support attempts to curb greenhouse emissions.
  
• Support leaders and organizations who provide
  vision and can make tough decisions.

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CO2 Emission-related News

• China is now building about 2 power stations
  every week, BBC
• Carbon Monitoring for Action CARMA
• Database on international power plant emissions
• In 2006, Supreme Court ruled (5 to 4) that CO2 is
  a pollutant covered by under the clean air act
  STORY
• So EPA now has to regulate CO2 emissions!
• Coal plant application denial in Kansas
• SEN. Sam Brownback (R) response
• Finally, new US Fuel efficiency standards? STORY

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What is the Kyoto protocol?

• The Kyoto protocol is an international and
  legally binding agreement to reduce greenhouse
  gas emissions worldwide. It came into force in
  February 2005 after being agreed at a 1997 UN
  conference in Kyoto, Japan. A total of 174
  nations (but not the US) ratified the pact to
  reduce the greenhouse gases emitted by developed
  countries to at least 5 below 1990 levels by
  2008-12.
• Bali Conference (12/2007) a new international
  climate change deal is being negotiated to
  replace the Kyoto protocol that expires in 2012.

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Energy usage and the CO2 problem

• The vast emissions of CO2 from energy use result
  from three factors
• The amount of carbon in the fuels we use,
• Our inefficient use of energy,
• Our choices about when and how to use energy

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US Energy Usage
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U.S. per capita energy usage

• 100 quadrillion btu used each year
• 1020 joules 100,000,000,000,000,000,000
• 1020 joules/year /(3x107 seconds/year)
• 3x1012 joules/second Watts
• 300 million people in the US 3x108
• Energy usage per person
  10 kW!

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U.S. CO2 Emission Rates

• OIL 20M barrels/day x 800 lbs CO2/barrel x 365
  days
• 3 Gigatons CO2 emitted into the atmosphere per
  year
• COAL 200 lbs CO2/million btu x 23,000,000
  million btu
• 4.6 Gigatons CO2 emitted into the atmosphere
  per year
• CO2 generation scale factors

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Inefficiency of Electricity Generation

• 31 efficient

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Trenberth
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Source of the problem

• Beginning in the late 1950s, our enormous energy
  addiction has pushed beyond the U.S. domestic
  production of fossil fuels
• This addition has caused the US to become
  increasingly involved in the Middle East over time

See tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/other/perspectives0
5.pdf
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Present Financial Realities

• How much do we spend a day buying crude oil?
• We presently import 10 million barrels of oil
  per day
• At 100/barrel, 1B leaves the U.S. each day
• How much do we spend each day on the Iraq War?
• Presently 10B/month 330M/day in direct
  military
• Others estimate 720M/day in long term costs
• with no end in sight
• Iraq funding is sufficient to fund
• a major new climate observing system or
• a new mission to Mars
• EVERY DAY

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Petroleum Imports

• We are spending at least 1.3B/day to gain access
  to fossil fuel which is causing CO2
  concentrations to increase and our climate to
  change
• Clearly are available for alternative fuel
  development if we decide to set our priorities to
  do so

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What Might We Do?

• The climate is warming. The general scientific
  consensus is most of this is human induced
• The CO2 problem will get worse Within 15 years,
  China will surpass the U.S. as the world leader
  in carbon emissions
• Concern about shifting from fossil fuels will
  adversely affect our economy has been used to
  justify a wait and see attitude
• However, the early warning/warming signs are
  becoming commonplace and the potential damage
  from global warming and real damage from
  financial and political costs of our fossil fuel
  addiction argue that changes are needed and the
  sooner the better

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What Might We Do?

• Four (?) coupled issues
• The threat of anthropogenic global change,
  warming etc.
• The international economics of the worlds fossil
  fuel dependence
• The international politics of our fossil fuel
  dependence
• The economics of breaking our dependence on
  fossil fuel
• Is there a Common solution?
• Clearly we need to develop alternate fuel sources
  to get us off of our Fossil Fuel addiction (as
  Jimmy Carter suggested 30 years ago)

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Suggestion

• The U.S. should become the world leader in
  developing alternative energy sources.
• Reduce our greenhouse gas emissions
• Develop new jobs in the U.S.
• Reduce (or eliminate) our reliance on the Middle
  East
• Export the alternative energy technology to other
  parts of the world for profit and to reduce their
  CO2 emissions

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Alternative Energy Solutions

• Bioenergy
• Fuel Cells and Alternative Fuel Vehicles
• Geothermal Energy
• Solar Energy
• Water Power or Hydropower
• Wave, Tidal, or Ocean Energy
• Wind Energy
• Roscoe Texas wind farm NPR story

See http//www.aresearchguide.com/energy.html
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Biofuels

• Ethanol and biodiesel both used presently
• 3/28/2005 -- Ethanol generates 35 more energy
  than it takes to produce (Michael Wang at US
  Department of Energy's Argonne National
  Laboratory).
• http//journeytoforever.org/ethanol_energy.html
• PROBLEM Crutzen et al. (2007) biodiesel from
  rapeseed and bioethanol from corn (maize), can
  contribute as much or more to global warming by
  N2O emissions than cooling by fossil fuel savings
• Also driving up the cost of corn

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Biofuels Algae?

• Algae may be the long term biofuel of the future.
  
• Still some significant technical problems to
  overcome
• Some BIG Advantages motivate research
• Yields of oil from algae are orders of magnitude
  higher than those for traditional oilseeds
• Algae can grow in places away from the farmlands
  forests, minimizing damage to the eco- and food
  chain systems.
• Algae can be grown in sewages and next to
  power-plant smokestacks where they digest the
  pollutants and give us oil!

See for example http//www.oilgae.com/
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Solar Energy

• In 1931, Thomas Edison said Id put my money on
  the sun and solar energy. What a source of power!
  I hope we dont have to wait until oil and coal
  run out before we tackle that.
• Ultimately the sun is the source of all power
• Globally averaged solar power is 240 watts per
  square meter (higher at equator, lower at poles)
• 2000 W per person is needed for residential
  electricity
• At 10 efficiency, 80 sq. meters (30 ft x 30 ft)
  of solar energy collection is required per person
  
• (at 6B humans, surface area per human is
  1000x1000 ft)

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Solar Power in Southwest

• http//rredc.nrel.gov/solar/old_data/nsrdb/redbook
  /atlas/

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Solar Collectors

• Lots of sunlight in the West
• Collectors concentrate the solar energy to
  generate steam to run turbines
• No CO2 emission
• Problem for Southwest is they use water

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Solar Cell Conversion Efficiency

• Best 36, Typical 12-16
• Good match for Arizonas clear skies

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Solar Power Solar cells

• Use in central power grids and individual
  buildings
• Centralized grid does work because DC-AC
  inverters are 96 efficient
• Tucson Electric Power (TEP) experimental grid in
  Springerville
• A storage capability must be developed to smooth
  through diurnal and cloud-caused power variations

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Solar Cells contd

• Payback time of energy used in fabrication
• from about 1 year for roof integrated built-in
  installations in Phoenix made from high
  efficiency amorphous Silicon
• Over 30-year lifetime, Si based solar cells will
  produce 6 to 31 times the amount of energy used
  to produce them
• No GHG emissions during power generation
• Energy generation cost is 0.18 /kWh in Arizona
  (TEP)
• Monthly use of 500 kWh per house 90 (TEP cost
  40)
• TEP anticipates solar cells become cost effective
  2015
• Solar cells on the buildings in Tucson would
  provide the power needed for Tucson
  transportation via electric cars

http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cellEnergy_con
version_efficiency
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What Can YOU Do?

• Use energy-efficient light bulbs
• Initially more , longer lasting, lower
  electricity
• Purchase Energy Efficient Appliances/Merchandize
• Limit Heating and Air Conditioning
• 76F in summer, 66F in winter
• Think Alternative Transportation
• Bicycles, Walking, Public Transportation
• Practice Smart Use of Personal Automobiles
• Carpool, Combine Errands, Lighter Loads, Slow
  Down
• Use Fuel Efficient or Hybrid Vehicles

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Use solar power

• Dry your clothes on the clothes line
• Some HOAs ban clothes lines but clothes lines
  are environmentally beautiful
• Solar water heaters on house
• Solar electricity generation

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Many things you can do

• Insulate your house etc
• Use renewable energy
• Reduce coal fired power (unless carbon capture
  and storage employed)

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Many things you can do

• VOTE!
• Vote for responsible candidates
• Most important!

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• Conclusions
• Global warming (etc.) is very real
• Humans are causing a lot of the problem
• More climate change is a sure bet - we must
  develop adaptation strategies

Arizona population projected to double by 2030
Photo J. Overpeck
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The Challenge Sustainable Management of an
Ever-Changing Planet