Moving People more Intelligently: How can Technology influence Travel choices

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• Moving People more IntelligentlyHow can
  Technology influence Travel choices?
• Peter Bonsall
• Professor of Transport Planning
• Institute for Transport Studies
• University of Leeds
• Presentation to ITSS Innovation Platform
• Public Policy Seminar, London, September 2008

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Key Questions

• What is the travel decision making process?
• What influences travel decisions?
• How can technology influence travel choices?
• How does information affect behaviour?
• What are the necessary/desirable features of an
  information system?
• Do informed travellers make better decisions?
• Information acquisition

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• What is the travel choice process?

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What is the travel choice process? (1)

• The theories
• Compensatory D.M.
• Non-compensatory D.M.
• Heuristic D.M.
• Expected Utility Theory
• Prospect Theory
• Theory of Planned Behaviour
• (values norms perceived ability) ?
  behavioural intent
• (behavioural intent reality) ? behaviour

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What is the travel choice process? (2)

• In practice.
• At aggregate level
• EUT performs tolerably well for traditional
  interventions but provides little insight and
  does not deal well with soft factors
• At disaggregate level
• No single theory performs very well
• The D.M. process, and the individual values, vary
  with
• circumstances of decision (forced/voluntary)
• nature of trip (mandatory/discretionary,
  long/short, one-off/ routine)
• personal characteristics circumstances
  (socio-economic characteristics,
  mood-alertness-motivation, need for cognition)
• availability of information

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What is the travel choice process? (3)

• Some examples
• high n.f.c. .
• Whether/how to make new trip
• careful consideration of all options in perceived
  choice set (including, travel options,
  non-travel options which achieve same/similar
  objective, and do nothing)
• Voluntary change to regular commute
• periodic/continuous consideration of main
  options in perceived choice set
• low n.f.c. .
• Usually adopt first acceptable option
• Generally the least disruptive to existing
  arrangements
• e.g. ?speed, ?route, ?departure time, new
  destination, new mode

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What is the travel choice process? (4)

• Factors affecting travel decisions vary from case
  to case but will typically include
• Perceived need to change (or benefit from
  changing) routine
• Effort required to change routine
• Journey time and reliability
• Out of pocket cost
• Comfort, privacy, status, image, legality
• Safety, security, healthiness?
• Environmental credentials?

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What is the travel choice process? (5)

• Conclusions on the TC process
• process varies
• making the right decision takes effort and
  requires good information
• primacy of routine of satisficing principle
• end result is usually objectively sub-optimal ..
  but, allowing for d.m. effort, overall process
  may be entirely rational
• Important issues
• perception of choice set
• perception of option attributes
• knowledge of sources of information
• ease of access to known sources of information

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• What influences travel choices?

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What influences travel choices? (1)

• Regulation
• compulsory EVSC
• restricted access based on dymanically-assessed
  emissions
• New or improved infrastructure or services
• advanced control (e.g. ramp metering, v.s.l.,
  dynamic lane makings)
• dynamic service provision (e.g. D.A.P.T)
• Differential pricing
• dynamic infrastructure pricing (e.g. San Diego
  HOT lane)
• Voluntary R.P schemes
• General information or advice
• awareness raising e.g. w.r.t. carbon footprints
• advanced marketing methods
• Specific information or advice about
  infrastructure or services
• (next slide)

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How can IT influence travel decisions?

• Regulation
• compulsory EVSC
• restricted access based on dynamically-assessed
  emissions
• New or improved infrastructure or services
• Dynamic control and provision (e.g. V.S.L.,
  dynamic lane makings, D.A.P.T.)
• Alternatives to travel (tele-working, e-bay,
  lastminute.com)
• Differential pricing
• dynamic infrastructure pricing (e.g. San Diego
  HOT lane)
• voluntary R.P schemes
• General information or advice
• awareness raising (e.g. w.r.t. carbon footprints,
  e-services)
• advanced marketing methods (incl. interactive
  questionnaires and monitoring)
• Specific information or advice about
  infrastructure or services
• (next slides)

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• How does information affect behaviour?

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Informations effect on behaviour (1)

• ....is generally less than info-providers assume!
• .will be small if the information is
• inaccessible (not visible, expensive, difficult
  to access)
• too detailed (incl. too honest!)
• not credible (suspect motives, poor reputation,
  uncorroborated)
• .may be delayed, but
• repeated exposure can alter perceptions
• feedback can raise awareness of conditions
  experienced - but cannot overcome systematic
  biasses

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Informations effect on behaviour (2)

• The Information acquisition process
• Varies between individuals, but the dominant
  process is
• Perceiving need for information
• External stimulus, experience, self-confidence,
  awareness of sources
• Selecting source(s) to consult
• prominence, reputation, ease of access, cost,
  habit
• Consulting source(s)
• features of source, personal factors (habit,
  preferences, d.m. style)
• Comprehending and retaining relevant
  information
• design of source, personal factors (ability,
  motivation, mood)

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Informations effect on behaviour (3)

• Desirable attributes of an information / advice
  system
• Visible
• Demonstrably easy and quick to access
• Providing useful information in appropriate
  detail and format
• Useful content, required detail format vary
  between individuals / circumstances
• scope for tailoring to individuals expressed
  requirements
• scope for anticipating relevance (e.g. exception
  reporting)
• Accurate and reliable
• public are unforgiving of mistakes/errors
• Free

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• Do informed travellers make better decisions?

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Do informed travellers make better decisions? (1)

• Are the travellers better off?
• Yes unless.
• Information overload causes confusion
• Availability of advice/information causes people
  to ignore common sense and to lose traditional
  navigation skills
• Over-response to information creates problems
• Information is inadvertantly misleading or wrong
  (e.g. o.o.d.)
• Information/advice is deliberately modified to
  reflect
• commercial pressures (e.g. via KFCs)
• community objectives (e.g. omitting rat-runs)
• Lack of credibility undermines value of
  information

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Do informed travellers make better decisions? (3)

• Is the Community better off?
• Yes.
• Fewer dumb or needlessly inefficient trips
• More effective competition between available
  services
• Better utilisation of spare capacity
• People are influenced to behave responsibly?
• More efficient economy?
• But
• More potential for selfish behaviour (CU ? SIU)
• Efficient market may harm social services
• Some externalities may increase if demand is
  dispersed
• Information reduces cost of travel and so may
  generate additional demand

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Do informed travellers make better decisions? (4)

• So we have a problem!
• Increased information may lead to
• increased traffic
• more selfish choices
• So the community may benefit by
• curtailing the provision of travel information
• drawing attention to socially-desirable
  alternatives
• But individuals will want information which is
  best for themselves, so
• advice from community-oriented system may not be
  wanted or believed
• individually-oriented systems will out-compete
  community-oriented systems
• ? Need for compromise

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• Key Conclusions

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Key Conclusions

• Optimisation of travel decisions requires more
  effort than most people are prepared to expend
• information will have little impact unless it is
  very visible, easily accessible and actually
  wanted!
• Information required, and desired format, vary
  between individuals and circumstances
• this diversity increases the cost of information
  provision
• Information provision may have less impact on
  behaviour than other IT-based initiatives (smart
  regulation and control, dynamic service
  provision, alternatives to travel, differential
  pricing)
• Society may not benefit from unrestricted
  provision of travel information so should offer
  info/advice which is acceptable but reflects
  community objectives
• Design details are crucial!

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• End
• p.w.bonsall_at_its.leeds.ac.uk

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Further Reading (1)

• Aarts, H., Verplanken, B., van Knippenberg, A. ,
  (1997). Habit and information use in travel mode
  choices. Acta Psychologica, 96, 1-14
• Ajzen, I. (1991). The theory of planned behavior.
  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision
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• Avineri, E., Prashker, J.N., 2006. The impact of
  travel information on travelers learning under
  uncertainty. Transportation, 33(4), pp. 393-408
• Bamberg, S., Ajzen, I., and Schmidt, P. (2003).
  Choice of travel mode in the theory of planned
  behavior The roles of past behavior, habit, and
  reasoned action. Basic and Applied Social
  Psychology, 13, 175-188.
• Bonsall, P W and Joint, M. (1991) .Driver
  Compliance with Route Guidance Advice the
  Evidence and its Implications. Proceedings of
  VNIS Conference, 47-59, Dearborn, 1991. IEEE and
  SAE, Warrendale PA USA
• Bonsall, P W. (1992) The Influence of Route
  Guidance Advice on Route Choice in Urban
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• Bonsall, P W. (1992) Drivers' Acceptance of
  Route Guidance Advice an International
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  on Vehicle Navigation and Information Systems,
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• Bonsall, P W and Palmer, I A. (1999).
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• Bonsall, P W. (2000) Travellers Response to
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• .

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Further Reading (2)

• Bonsall, P W. (2000) Modelling Response to
  Information Systems and other ITS Innovations, in
  Hensher D A and Button K J (eds) Handbook of
  Transport Modelling. Pergamon.
• Bonsall, P., Firmin, P., Beale, J., (2004).
  Perception of modal attributes how accurate and
  how susceptible to change? Paper presented at the
  83rd meeting of the Transportation Research
  Board, Washington, D.C.
• Bonsall PW, (2004) Traveller Behaviour Decision
  making in an unpredictable world. Journal of
  Intelligent Transport Systems, Vol 8 no. 1 45-60
• Bonsall, PW, (2005) Stimulating Modal Shift, Ch
  36 (613-633) of Button KJ and Hensher DA (eds)
  Handbook of Transport Strategy, Policy and
  Institutions, (Handbooks in Transport Volume 6),
  Elsevier, London, ISBN 0-08-044115-7
• Bonsall PW, Shires JD, Matthews B, Maule J and
  Beale J. (2007) Responses to Complex Pricing
  Signals Theory, Evidence and Implications for
  Road Pricing, Transportation Research A 41 (A),
  672-683.
• Chorus, C.G., Molin, E.J.E., van Wee, G.P.,
  (2006). Use and effects of Advanced Traveller
  Information Services (ATIS) a review of the
  literature. Transport Reviews, 26(2), 127-149
• Chorus, C.G., Molin, E.J.E., van Wee, G.P.,
  Arentze, T.A., Timmermans, H.J.P., (2006).
  Responses to transit information among
  car-drivers regret-based models and simulations.
  Transportation Planning Technology, 29(4),
  249-271
• Chorus, C.G., Molin, E.J.E., van Wee, G.P.,
  (2006). Travel information as an instrument to
  change car-drivers travel choices a literature
  review. European Journal of Transport and
  Infrastructure Research, 6(4), 335-364
• Chorus, C.G., Arentze, T.A., Timmermans, H.J.P.,
  (2007). Information impact on quality of
  multimodal travel choices conceptualizations and
  empirical analyses. Transportation, 34(6),
  624-645

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Further Reading (3)

• Garvill, J., Marell, A., and Nordlund, A. (2003).
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• Jackson, P.G., (1996). How will route guidance
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• Jou, R., Lam, S., Liu, Y., Chen, K., 2005. Route
  switching behavior on freeways with the provision
  of different types of real-time traffic
  information. Transportation Research Part A, 39,
  445-461
• Lyons, G.D., (2001). Towards integrated traveler
  information. Transport Reviews, 21, 217-235
• Mahmassani, H.S., Liu, Y., 1999. Dynamics of
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  traveler information systems. Transportation
  Research Part C, 7, 91-107
• Mahmassani, H.S., Srinivasan, K.K., 2004.
  Experiments with route and departure time choices
  of commuters under real-time information
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  Schreckenberg, M. Selten, R. (Eds.) Human
  behavior and traffic networks. Springer, Bonn,
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• Polak, J., Jones, P., (1993), The acquisition of
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  approach. Transportation, 20, 179-198
• Simon, H.A., (1955). A behavioural model of
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• Walker, J. L., Ben-Akiva, M.E., (1996). Consumer
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  laboratory simulation of information searches
  using multimedia technology. ITS Journal, 3(1),
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• Srinivisan, K., Chen, I., Reddy, P., Jovanis,
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  investigation into users information acquisition
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• Thompson, R G and Bonsall, P W. (1997) Drivers
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