Energy Expo

1
Energy Expo Conference The Pacific NW
Economic Forecast

• Jim Hebert
• Hebert Research
• October 18th 2007

2
Supply Side Economics

• Incentives to increase supply
• Managing money supply
• Tax cuts and James Tobin
• Limit Theory
• lim f(x)f(a)
• x ? a
• Energy
• Water
• Infrastructure

3
Perceived Change Since Last Year
4
Health of the Local Economy
5
When will the Local Economy Begin to Cool Down
6
Seattle-Bellevue Economic Barometer Q2 07
7
Business Confidence Index
8
Expected Change in Total Employment
9
Economic Barometer and Rateof Job Growth
10
Employment Trend Seattle - Everett MSA
11
Employment Change - Current Quarter versus Same
Quarter in Previous Year
12
Expected Change in Wage Levels
13
Economic Barometer and Increase in Retail Sales
in King County
14
King County Retail Sales (to Q1 07)
15
King County Non-Retail Taxable Sales (to Q1 07)
16
Percent of Firms that will Increase Prices and
Fees
17
U.S. Consumer Price Index
18
Expected Change in Revenue
19
Changes in Capital Expenditure for Information
Technology
20
Expected Change in Total Space Required
21
QUARTERLY HOME SALES TRENDS PUGET SOUND
22
RECENT MONTH MLS UPDATE PUGET SOUND
23
Economic Barometer and Increase in King County
Housing Permits Authorized
24
Total Housing Permits Authorized
25
QUARTERLY MORTGAGE RATES2008-2010
26
Subprime Lending
Rising rates Rates on fixed conforming, jumbo
and adjustable mortgages
Housing Price Index
Note Thirty-year rates are for mortgages with
zero points Source Bankrate.com via WSJ Market
Data Group Office of Federal Housing Enterprise
Oversight
27
Effect of the Mortgage Meltdown on the Company
28
Economic Barometer and U.S. Stock Market (Percent
Change in SP 500 Index)
29
Architecture Billing Index
30
Oils Surge
31
Expected Change in Energy Costs
32
Conclusions