The Impact of BRAC on the Old Line State

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The Impact of BRAC on theOld Line State

• Daraius Irani, Ph.D.
• March 14th, 2007

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Base Realignment and Closure Commission (BRAC)

• BRAC is the commonly used acronym for the formal
  name of the Defense Base Closure and Realignment
  Commission. The BRAC Commission is an independent
  entity that submits its findings and
  recommendations to the President of the United
  States.
• The 2005 BRAC Commission is authorized by
  Congress through the Defense Base Closure and
  Realignment Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-510), as
  amended.

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Base Realignment and Closure Commission (BRAC)

• There are nine commissioners who have been
  appointed to serve on the BRAC Commission by
  President Bush.
• The BRAC Commission was created to provide an
  objective, thorough, accurate, and non-partisan
  review and analysis, through a process determined
  by law, of the list of bases and military
  installations which the Department of Defense
  (DoD) has recommended be closed and/or realigned.

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Base Realignment and Closure Commission (BRAC)

• The Commission is required to assess each
  recommendation to ensure it meets the eight
  selection criteria set forth by Congress in P.L.
  108-375.
• Recommendations by DoD that substantially deviate
  from these selection criteria can be modified or
  rejected by the Commission by a simple majority
  vote of the Commissioners.

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Base Realignment and Closure Commission (BRAC)

• Military Value
• (1) The current and future mission capabilities
  and the impacts in operational readiness of the
  total force of the Department of Defense,
  including the impact on joint war fighting,
  training and readiness.
• (2) The availability and condition of land,
  facilities, and associated airspace at both
  existing and potential receiving locations.

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Base Realignment and Closure Commission (BRAC)

• Military Value (cont.)
• (3) The ability to accommodate contingency,
  mobilization, surge and future total force
  requirements at both existing and potential
  receiving locations to support operations and
  training.
• (4) The cost of operations and the manpower
  implications.

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Base Realignment and Closure Commission (BRAC)

• Other Considerations
• (5) The extent and timing of potential costs and
  savings, including the number of years, beginning
  with the date of completion of the closure or
  realignment, for the savings to exceed the costs
• (6) The economic impact on existing communities
  in the vicinity of military installations.

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Base Realignment and Closure Commission (BRAC)

• Other Considerations (cont.)
• (7) The ability of the infrastructure of both
  the existing and potential communities to
  support, missions, and personnel.
• (8) The environmental impact, including the
  impact of costs related to potential
  environmental restoration, waste management,
  environmental compliance activities.

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BRAC IMPORTANT FACTS

• 70 of the jobs will be vacantonly 30 of the
  jobs will move with an actual person
• Service/Infrastructure Jobs (Retail, Teachers,
  Healthcare, Hospitality) are 11 with the BRAC
  direct related jobs
• 40,000 60,000 jobs
• 50 of the jobs will have a 50-60 person in the
  job when it is moved to MD
• 17 of the BRAC related jobs require less then a
  bachelors degree
• High Skill and High Salary Range positions on all
  levels of education

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BRAC Analysis Findings

• We estimate that the BRAC decisions will
  generate
• over 45,000 jobs of which 15,000 are direct jobs,
  22,000 indirect jobs and the balance are induced
  jobs
• the average wages of all these new jobs are over
  70,000
• the average household income of households likely
  to move to Maryland due to BRAC exceeds 100,000
• the annual income and property tax revenues
  (local and state) approach half billion dollars
  derived from the nearly 30,000 new households
  estimated to locate to Maryland

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BRAC Analysis Impacts
County Jobs Households
Anne Arundel 10,049 4,457
Baltimore 3,898 3,653
Cecil 2,602 1,997
Harford 12,712 6,533
Howard 2,259 1,853
Montgomery 4,236 2,274
Prince George's 3,463 1,996
Baltimore City 3,145 2,551
Rest of MD 2,868 2,876

Total 45,232 28,188
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Maryland BRAC Job Impacts
Sector Direct Non-Embedded Indirect Indirect Induced Total
Agriculture, Mining, Utilities, Construction and Manufacturing 0 0 891 313 1,204
Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade, Finance and Insurance, and Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 0 0 1,879 2,077 3,956
Transportation and Warehousing 1,749 590 1,038 200 3,577
Information 2,727 2,000 1,822 82 6,631
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 7,421 3,936 3,759 342 15,458
Management of Companies and Enterprises 1,841 804 82 24 2,751
Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation 860 592 3,470 324 5,246
Education, Health, Arts, Restaurants, Hotels, Other Services, and Government 675 78 1,781 3,875 6,409

Total 15,273 8,000 14,722 7,237 45,232
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Maryland BRAC Wage Impacts
Sector Direct Non-Embedded Indirect Indirect Induced Total
Agriculture, Mining, Utilities, Construction and Manufacturing 0 0 58,715 47,703 57,873
Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade, Finance and Insurance, and Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 0 0 44,582 32,019 40,187
Transportation and Warehousing 69,136 89,963 44,004 14,532 62,764
Information 98,258 105,380 79,333 51,874 80,731
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 110,118 129,044 66,336 42,128 96,644
Management of Companies and Enterprises 97,082 90,045 61,817 53,682 93,460
Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation 82,366 90,071 27,992 23,266 43,279
Education, Health, Arts, Restaurants, Hotels, Other Services, and Government 51,139 90,237 27,042 30,442 33,892

Total 97,566 113,064 49,316 31,752 70,388
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Baltimore City BRAC Job Impacts
Sector Non-Embedded Indirect Indirect Induced Total
Agriculture, Mining, Utilities, Construction and Manufacturing 0 50 17 67
Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade, Finance and Insurance, and Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 0 105 112 217
Transportation and Warehousing 131 58 11 199
Information 524 102 4 630
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 952 210 18 1,180
Management of Companies and Enterprises 178 5 1 184
Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation 131 194 17 342
Education, Health, Arts, Restaurants, Hotels, Other Services, and Government 17 100 209 326

Total 1,932 823 390 3,145
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Baltimore City Wage Impacts
Sector Non-Embedded Indirect Indirect Induced Total
Agriculture, Mining, Utilities, Construction and Manufacturing 0 58,694 47,651 57,848
Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade, Finance and Insurance, and Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 0 44,584 32,022 40,250
Transportation and Warehousing 89,963 44,004 14,532 62,764
Information 105,380 79,333 51,874 80,731
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 129,044 66,336 42,128 96,644
Management of Companies and Enterprises 90,045 61,817 53,682 93,460
Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation 90,071 27,992 23,266 43,279
Education, Health, Arts, Restaurants, Hotels, Other Services, and Government 90,237 27,054 30,439 33,526

Total 113,412 49,318 31,751 74,065
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Baltimore City Household Impacts
Direct Indirect Non-Embedded Indirect Induced Total Average Household Income
Baltimore City (ALL) 365 1,057 777 352 2,552 64,111
Baltimore City (Ft. Meade) 177 534 359 131 1,201 66,224
Baltimore City (APG) 185 523 400 212 1,321 62,747
Baltimore City (AFB) 3 17 9 30 39,361

Average Household Income 155,957 155,957 155,957 155,957
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Education Levels BRAC
Education Current Forecasted
High School 13.7 3.0
Some College 9.3 14.3
Bachelors Degree 34.6 10.6
Some Graduate 14.1 30.9
Masters 16.2 16.5
Other Graduate Degree 5.1 11.1
Doctorate 6.9 13.7

Civilian DOD Employees and Contractors Based upon the OPM minimum education requirements Civilian DOD Employees and Contractors Based upon the OPM minimum education requirements
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Age Distribution of Existing BRAC Job Holders
Age 2005
21-29 14
30-39 9
40-49 33
50-59 34
60 11
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BRAC Occupations

• Electronics Engineering Series
• General Engineering Series
• Computer Engineering Series
• Computer Science Engineering
• Information Technology Management Series.
• Computer Science Series
• Operations Research Series
• Telecommunications Series

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BRAC Occupations (cont.)

• Management and Program Analysis Series
• Program Management Series
• Management and Program Clerical and Assistance
  Series
• Financial Management Series
• Financial Administration and Program Series
• Budget Analysis Series
• Contracting Series

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BRAC Occupations (cont.)

• Miscellaneous Administration and Program Series
• Secretary Series
• Mail and File Series
• Data Transcriber Series
• Miscellaneous Administration and Program Series
• Technical Writing and Editing Series
• Equipment Operator Series

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BRAC Occupations (cont.)

• Logistics Management Series
• Inventory Management Series
• General Supply Series
• Supply Program Management Series
• Human Resources Management Series
• Human Resources Assistance Series

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OPM Qualification Standard Percent of Civilian DOD Employees
Administrative and Management Positions 44.8
Clerical and Administrative Support Positions 11.6
Competitive Service Student Trainee Positions 0.9
N/A - Contracting 7.2
No Qualification Standard 0.3
Professional and Scientific Positions 34.9
Technical and Medical Support Positions 0.2
100.0
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Administrative Management Administrative Management Administrative Management Administrative Management Administrative Management Administrative Management
GS-5 GS-7 GS-9 GS-11 GS-12 Series
4-year course of study leading to a bachelor's degree 1 full year of graduate level educationORsuperior academic achievement Master's or equivalent graduate degree OR 2 full years of progressively higher level graduate leading to such a degree OR LL.B. or J.D. if related Ph.D. or equivalent doctoral degreeOR3 full years of progressively higher level graduate education leading to such a degreeORLL.M., if related   Series 18, 28, 80, 132, 201, 260, 301, 340, 341, 343, 346, 391, 501, 505, 560, 950, 1020, 1035, 1083, 1101, 1670, 1801, 1910, 2001, 2003, 2010, 2032, 2130, 2210
These occupational series also have specific educational requirements
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Clerical Administrative Support Clerical Administrative Support Clerical Administrative Support Clerical Administrative Support Clerical Administrative Support
GS-2 GS-3 GS-4 GS-5 Series
high school graduate or equivalent high school graduate or equivalent 1 year above high school 1 years above high school 4 years above high school Series 86, 134, 303, 305, 318, 326, 335, 344, 361, 505, 544, 561, 986, 1101, 1105, 1106, 2005
These occupational series also have specific educational requirements
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Professional Scientific Professional Scientific Professional Scientific Professional Scientific Professional Scientific Professional Scientific
GS-5 GS-7 GS-9 GS-11 GS-12 Series
Successful completion of a full 4-year course of study in an accredited college or university leading to a bachelor's or higher degree that included a major field of study or specific course requirements generally as stated in the individual occupational requirements. 1 year of graduate-level education or superior academic achievement 2 years of progressively higher level graduate education leading to a master's degree or master's or equivalent graduate degree 3 years of progressively higher level graduate education leading to a Ph.D. degree or Ph.D. or equivalent doctoral degree OR For research positions Master's or equivalent graduate degree For research positions Ph.D. or equivalent doctoral degree Series 170, 510, 801, 803, 830, 854, 855, 893, 896, 1301, 1306, 1515, 1550
These occupational series also have specific
educational requirements
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Student Trainee Student Trainee Student Trainee Student Trainee
GS-2 GS-3 GS-4 Series
High school diploma or equivalent Completion of 1 academic year of post-high school study Completion of 2 academic years of post-high school study or associate's degree Series 199, 399, 599, 899, 999, 1199, 1599, 1699, 2099
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Technical Medical Support Technical Medical Support Technical Medical Support Technical Medical Support Technical Medical Support Technical Medical Support Technical Medical Support
GS-2 GS-3 GS-4 GS-5 GS-7 GS-9 Series
High school graduation or equivalent 1 year above high school with course(s) related to the occupation, if required 2 years above high school with courses related to the occupation, if required 4-year course of study above high school leading to a bachelor's degree with courses related to the occupation, if required One full year of graduate education (directly related to the work of the position) meets the requirements for GS-7 Two full years of graduate education directly related to the work of the position or a master's degree meets the requirements for GS-9. Series 802, 856
            Series 905, 1222
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SECURITY CLEARANCE PROCESS AND MARYLAND

• Education/Information

• Pipeline of Qualified People

• 80-90 Percent of the jobs coming to Maryland
  related to BRAC (excluding the service and
  infrastructure jobs) require some type of
  clearance
• Process for educating secondary and
  post-secondary students in MD needs to be
  developed and implemented
• Process for identifying and the transition of
  veterans (new and retired) through the clearance
  process needs to be developed and implemented in
  MD
• Pipeline of companies and government agencies to
  sponsor individuals

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THANKS FOR YOUR TIME AND ATTENTION

• Dr. Daraius Irani
• Towson University
• EDA University Center
• Regional Economic Studies Institute
• 410-704-6363
• dirani_at_resiusa.org

• FOR MORE INFORMATION OR A COPY OF THE
  PRESENTATION EMAIL USTHANKS!