A perception of cliamte change risks: A developing country's perspective

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by Lourdes V. Tibig
Presented at the In-Session Workshop on Impacts
of and Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate
Change, Bonn, Germany, 18 June 2004
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(No Transcript)
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The Philippines
7,107 islands total area 300,000 km2 total
coastline 33,900 km. total forest lands 15
million hectares wetlands14,100 km2 groundwater
resources50,000 km2
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climate

• high maximum and minimum temperatures
• heavy annual rainfall 1000 mm to
  5000 mm
• mean tropical cyclone occurrences 20 per
  year

• trends
• increasing daytime temperatures, more hot days
• increasing night time temperatures, more warm
  nights
• no significant trends in rainfall

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non-climate factors

• demography
• 80 million in 2000 with an annual growth
  rate of 2.4
• large population in megacities

• economy
• mostly agriculture-based

• land-use change
• enormous due to industrialization and
  population growth

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How are climate variability /change risks
perceived in the Philippines?

• weather/climate-related hazards (in terms of
  damages, fatalities and social and economic
  costs)
• socio-economic vulnerabilities (including
  environmental changes/degradation)

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• weather/climate-related hazards

• floods
• tropical cyclones
• storm surges
• intense monsoon rains
• droughts
• - El Niño -related

• Number and intensity of these extreme events have
  been seen to increase.
• Damages due to these events have also been
  increasing.

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Figure 2 Major natural disasters in the
Philippines (1971- 2000)
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vulnerability to climate variability
Figure 3 The costs of disastrous tropical
cyclones have exhibited an upward trend in recent
decades.
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Climate change risks for each sector Agriculture
and food supply sector highly
dependent on water (both a resource and a hazard)
Figure 6 Philippine rice production. (Arrows
indicate El Niño events.)
In 1998, the El Niño event caused an 80 - drop
in agricultural production.
- for rice production alone, a US 100 million
loss
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Coastal resources
Its vulnerability - 10 cm/decade
SLR in some coastal cities - long
history of storm surges (48 known occurrences in
50 years with as much as 9-m storm surge height)
- some areas already partially
inundated
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• Coastal resources (continued)
• endangered access to clean water during floods

• intrusion of saltwater in its agricultural areas

• aggravated flooding potential esp. in low-lying
  areas

• higher risks to lives and damages in coastal
  areas

• impacts on marine ecosystems (reefs, corals,
  etc.)
• - more frequent episodes of toxic red
  tides
• - migration of fish to areas with more
  favorable conditions leading to
  diminished harvest (coastal
  fishing 40 60 of total fish catch)

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• shorter return periods of floods

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Human health sector

• will further lead to climatic stress on human
  health

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• More extreme events will lead to
• disruptions of environmental health services and
  infrastructures (water supply,public sanitation,
  etc.)

• significant rise in water-, food- and
  vector-borne diseases

• conditions that could cause outbreak of diseases
  like dengue, malaria and cholera (esp. in
  depressed areas)

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some expected climate risks for health

• could cause an increase in epidemic potential of
  12 to 27 for malaria, 31 to 47 for dengue, 11
  to 17 for schistosomiasis, etc.

• more frequent cholera and diarrhea incidences

• could also cause an increase in respiratory
  illnesses

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Summary
Climate change will alter the number and
frequency of extreme events

which could cause the exponential increase of
adverse impacts
on humans, natural ecosystems and the environment
in the Philippines,

(most important of which are human survival
and the quality of life).
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Climate change will have lasting consequences.
In addressing climate change, the job is just
beginning.
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Thank you !