Traditional and NonTraditional Conflict ManagementUNI360Y Fall 2005 Week 5

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Traditional and Non-Traditional Conflict
Management-UNI360YFall 2005Week 5

• Alan S. Alexandroff
• alan_at_alexandroff.com
• Research Director PCMN

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Summary

• Traditional Diplomatic Strategy
• Two conceptions of international conflict
  management
• Liberal Institutions and Grand Coalitions

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Strategic Elements War on Terror Bush

• War on Terror at National Endowment for Democracy
  October 6, 2005
• Break the organized terror networks
• Deny WMD to outlaw regimes and to terrorist
  allies
• Deny radical groups the support and sanctuary of
  outlaw regimes (Syria and Iran)
• Deny terrorists control of any nation (Iraq)
• Deny terrorists the future recruits replace
  hatred and resentment with democracy and hope in
  the Middle East

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War on Terror Al Quida

• The centrality of the war in Iraq for the global
  jihad
• The ultimate goal is a caliphate
• Political action must equal military action
• The need to maintain popular support among the
  street

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OffensiveRealism I

• Structure drives state behavior
• Absence of a central authority
• The capability to act
• Uncertain over others intentions (security
  dilemma)

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Offensive Realism II

• IR is a ruthless dangerous business
• States seek to maximize share of world
  power-gaining power at the expense of others
• The coming challenge
• Ultimate aim to be a hegemon
• States have revisionist intentions
• A desire to alter the balance of power
• Defend BoP when others seek hegemony

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Motivation of Statesmen

• Offensive Realism-Aggressive Hegemon
• A struggle for survival-in a world of anarchy
• Status quo powers rarely found
• Look for opportunities to gain power
• Ultimate goal to become the hegemon
• All effort to maximize power create
  security-increase odds of survival and leaves
  open the possibility of achieving hegemony

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Kaplan, KissingerMetternich Hitler

• Prince Clemens von Metternich- A World Restored
• Alliances on philosophical values
• Not a focus on ethnic identification
• Napoleon-The Revolutionary Chieftain
• Kissingers realism
• Struggling against appeasement
• Kissingers shortcomings

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Architecture ofIR

• Objective of all statesmen
• Create a balance of fear, cooperation, and
  defensive mechanisms
• Not a just or fair system but accepted by all-and
  as long as maintained dealt with all
  revolutionary changes
• Cannot settle international disputes on good
  faith and a willingness to agree
• The great threat to IR

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Americans from MarsEuropeans from Venus

• Recourse to force (results) or recourse to
  negotiation, diplomacy and persuasion as opposed
  to coercion (process over result)
• Strategy and capability gaps
• Material and ideological differences reinforce
  one another
• US strategy of indirection in the 18 19th
  Century
• Europe Machtpolitik and the emergence of the
  new Europe
• Consequences of the end of the Cold War a
  growing gap
• European politics of weakness (appeasement) or of
  sophistication
• The indispensable nation or the
  Europeanhyperpuissance

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A European ViewMultilateralizing the Goal

• Tactics of the weak and multilateralism
• Constrain the US-without acting themselves
• Europe rejects its past
• Rejects Machtpolitik BoP
• Security from the outside
• A higher tolerance for threats or fear of
  conflict?

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The Role of A Power Gap

• EU as an international system - preserving
  peace-a post modern structure and ideology
• The indirect approach from rapprochement to a
  strategy of economic cooperation leading to
  peaceful integration (a method of peace)
• Moral consciousness and the European
  transcendence of power
• Inter-state relations subject to the rule of law
• Europes new way threatens Europes new mission
• Failure of the European approach could be a
  failure of the objective in Europe

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A Settlement with Constitutional
Characteristics

• Basic institutions and operating principles
  provide expectations limit on what the leading
  state can do reduce the returns to power
• Success a result of
• Reluctance towards hegemonic domination
• Open and penetrated character of American system
• Constraining effects of postwar economic and
  security institutions (highly institutionalized)
• In conclusion a Liberal order

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Concerts

• Defn
• Jointly manage their shared interest
• Prerequisites
• BoP, non-isolationism, ideological agreement

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Factors InfluencingSuccess

• Satisfaction with the existing order
• Recognition of the costliness of war
• Institutionalization of norms
• Voice-based organizational mechanisms
• 21st century of Great Powers

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EncompassingCoalitions

• A system of overlapping clubs institutions of
  varying size and membership dealing with
  different issues
• Clubs are heterogeneous differing in form as
  well as function
• Histories-clubs grow and evolve both in function
  and size
• Founders a small club between universalism and
  regionalism avoid these and nationalism
• A world of clubs dealing with functional and
  geographic areas