Labour market changes: trends and prospects

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Labour market changes trends and prospects
How might the changing labour market transform
higher education?CERI expert meeting, Paris,
12-13 February 2007

• Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin
• Analyst
• OECD/CERI
• Centre for Educational Research and Innovation

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Outline

• Changes and diversity in the structure of OECD
  economies and labour markets
• Drivers of change for discussion
• Ageing
• Technology
• Globalisation

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Common trends, but diverse economies and labour
markets
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GDP per capitaUS dollars, current prices and
PPPs, 2004
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Value added by broad sector, 1980
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Value added by broad sector, 2003
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Share of employment by broad sector, 1980
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Share of employment by broad sector, 2002
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Enterprises with less than 20 employeesemploymen
t and value addedAs a percentage of total
employment or value added in manufacturing, 2002
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Standardised unemployment rates average
1995-2004 As a percentage of civilian labour
force
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Long-term unemploymentPersons unemployed for 12
months or more as a percentage of total
unemployed, 2004
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Diversity within and across economies

• Institutions matter
• Employment systems
• Recruitment practices
• Autonomy within a job
• Role of formal qualifications
• Training, recognition of former experience,
  portability of skills
• Importance of innovation (RD)
• Depends on product, business strategy etc.

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Some drivers of change

• Ageing
• Technology
• Globalisation

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Ratio of the population aged 65 to the labour
force ()
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Some consequences of ageing

• Further changes in the structure of the economy
• Possible shortages in some sectors
• Teachers, health sectors, scientists, etc.?
• Migration?
• New work patterns for older workers? For women?
• Changes in consumption behaviours

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Technology

• Further development of IT and other technologies
• Automation of an increasing number of tasks end
  of work?
• New synergies more demand for highly skilled
  workforce?
• Greater variety of consumer demands and products
  shorter product life cycles
• Personalisation of products and consumption
• Low productivity growth puzzle inadequate
  measures of productivity or new model of
  production (imagination vs automation)?
• Driver of globalisation

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Globalisation

• Positive impact on economies overall, but loss of
  jobs and market shares in some sectors
• Further reach of outsourcing will highly
  qualified jobs be threatened too?
• Change in the structure of OECD economies?
• Impact on unemployment, on wage distribution, on
  skill level of available occupations
• Lifelong learning becomes more crucial
• Role of Multi-National Entreprises
• Financial capitalism and new business
  model/employment relationship

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Questions

• Will new business models become prevalent in
  higher education too?
• What kind of skills will the (tertiary educated)
  worker of the future need in order to thrive in
  the workplace and the labour market?
• Will the economy (really) need more tertiary
  educated people? What will happen to those with
  less formal education?

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Thank you

• Stephan.Vincent-Lancrin_at_oecd.org

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Over-qualification rates in some OECD countries,
2003-2004
Sources European countries European Community
Labour Force Survey (data provided by Eurostat)
United States Current Population Survey March
Supplement Canada Survey of Labour and Income
Dynamics Australia Household, Income and Labour
Dynamics.