A Dying Creed?

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A Dying Creed?

• The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal
  Capitalism

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The End of History?

• Francis Fukuyama 1992
• Economics Mixed Capitalism
• Culture Liberal Social Attitudes
• Political System Liberal Democracy
• Weaknesses to system military (no), economic
  (no), revolutionary (no), cultural (no??),
  ecological - ??, demographic - ??

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The Rise of Demography

• Where does demography fit in to social theory
  (vs. economy, culture, politics)?
• Technology-Mortality mechanism in the past (i.e.
  better weapons, more resources, lower mortality,
  higher growth)
• Values-Fertility mechanism in modernity? (i.e.
  certain values linked to higher fertility)

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The Rise of Demograohy

• Demographic Transition Uneven
• Ethnic differentials have had political
  ramifications, but are declining
• Ethnic Makeover Accepted. What about religious
  makeover?
• Are religious populations more resistant to
  transition than secular?

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Demography and Politics?

• Early Christianity, spread from some 40 converts
  in 30 A.D. to over 6 million adherents by 300
  A.D.
• Mormon church 40 percent growth in past century,
  widening fertility gap
• Evangelical Protestant growth in the 20th c. US
  ¾ demographic. 'Red states' have 12-point TFR
  advantage over 'Blue' in 2004 election
• Ethnic conflicts Quebec, N. Ireland, Fiji, etc
• Implications of the liberal-democratic-capitalist
  'End of History' model

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Q1 Secularisation

• "As this book will demonstrate
• 1. The publics of virtually all advanced
  industrial societies have been moving toward more
  secular orientations during the past fifty years.
  Nevertheless,
• 2. The world as a whole now has more people with
  traditional religious views than ever before--
  and they constitute a growing proportion of the
  world's population." (Inglehart Norris 2004)
• Which will dominate religious fertility or
  secularisation?

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European Islamic Attendance
USA Attendance
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European Attendance
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Fertility. "Conservative, religiously minded
Americans are putting far more of their genes
into the future than their liberal, secular
counterpartsheavily Mormon Utah annually
produces 90 children for every 1,000 women of
child-bearing age. By comparison, Vermont -- the
only state to send a socialist to Congress and
the first to embrace gay unions -- produces only
49Fertility correlates strongly with religious
conviction" Philip Longman, The Empty Cradle
(2004)
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Conclusion Fertility

• After marital status, church attendance and
  religiosity among the strongest predictors of
  individual fertility in Europe
• Seems to be increasing its predictive power in
  secularising (Catholic) countries
• In secular (Protestant) countries, church
  attendance insignificant, but religiosity
  significantly predicts fertility
• Future Research USA, European Muslims, Islamic
  world

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European Attendance
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Conclusion Secularisation

• Variation in Patterns of Secularisation
• Europe has secularised in terms of church
  attendance, but not in terms of religious feeling
• In Europe, more religious (Catholic) countries
  are secularising faster, less religious (mainly
  Protestant) countries have flatlined at very low
  (5-10) levels of church attendance
• USA and much of the developing world has not
  secularised
• European Muslims show less tendency toward
  apostasy than Christians

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The End of History?

• 'End of History' far from certain indeed, the
  reverse seems more likely
• Europe ethnic conflict between secular or
  moderately religious 'natives' and growing
  religious (mainly Islamic) immigrant communities
• USA religious conflict which crosses ethnic
  lines, between secular/moderate religious
  population and religious fundamentalists

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http//www.sneps.net/RD/religdem.html
http//www.sneps.net/RD/religdem.html