In the news

1
In the news

• Obamas State of the Union speech, tonight at 8
  pm. Bobby Jindal is giving the Republican
  response.
• Fiscal responsibility summit yesterday at the
  White House John McCain raised question about
  presidential helicopters (cost overruns from 6.1
  to 11.2 billion).
• NY Times poll shows that 79 of Americans want
  Republi-cans in Congress to work in a bipartisan
  way with Obama.

2
Midterm exam

• Midterm next Thursday (3/5)
• 12 multiple choice, 2.5 points each (30)
• 4 of 5 IDs, 11 points each (44)
• 1 essay (26 points)
• Will cover readings and lectures through March
  3rd.

3
Redistricting

• Criteria for redistricting population equality
  and race come first and then compactness,
  contiguity, partisan bias, protect incumbents,
  geographic boundaries, and respect for existing
  communities (split municipalities).
• redistricting process state legislatures, the
  courts, and non-partisan commissions. What data
  can be used?

4
Racial Redistricting

• the 1965 Voting Rights Act access to vote.
  Mississippi redistricting. The right to a
  meaningful vote. Then Mobile v. Bolden (1980)
  intent to discriminate, not effect.
• The 1982 VRA Amendments reversed the Mobile
  decision. Equal opportunity to elect candidates
  of choice. Thornburg v. Gingles (1986),
  three-prong test for vote dilution.
• The 1992 redistricting process maximize the
  number of minority-majority districts.

5
Racial redistricting, cont.

• Shaw v. Reno (1993) and progeny. Race cannot be
  the predominant factor or it triggers strict
  scrutiny (Miller v. Johnson, 1996). The question
  of legal standing and its implications for these
  cases.
• Status of racial redistricting today. Easley v.
  Cromartie (2001). 2002 round tension between
  VRA and Shaw. Georgia v. Ashcroft (2003). LULAC
  v. Perry (2006).
• Ashcroft overturned in 2006 in the VRA extension.
• Racial representation may also be affected by
  at-large versus single-member districts.
• partisan redistricting. Historical examples.
  Veith v. Jubelirer (2004). LULAC again.

6

• The 1992 North Carolina House Plan

7
Texass mid-decade redistricting carving up
Democratic districts.
8
(No Transcript)
9
Money in congressional elections

• How much money?
• Campaign finance law
• FECA of 1974, Buckley v. Valeo.
• Soft money, PACs, independent expenditures,
  candidate expenditures, leadership PACs.
• McCain/Feingold. Upheld by the Supreme Court in
  McConnell v. FEC (2003). New loophole 527
  groups.
• Money and influencing the legislative process.
  Untangling the causal web.

10
The Candidates Side of the Story

• Strategic Politicians and the Supply Side Theory
• February 24, 2009
• PS 426

11
The calculus of candidacy

• E ( ai ) Pi Ui - Ci
• Utility of running equals the probability of
  winning times the benefits of winning, minus the
  costs. What are the benefits of holding office?
  The costs? (direct costs and opportunity costs).
• Impact of probability of winning on the type of
  candidate who will run.
• Progressive ambition.
• Examples.

12
Strategic politicians and the economy

• Jacobson/Kernell. Disjunction between the macro
  and micro-level findings on the impact of
  economic variables on congressional elections.
  There is a strong relationship at the macro
  level, but not at the micro level. Sort this out
  by focusing on the calculations of rational
  politicians and contributors.
• Strategic politicians and amateurs. The career
  structure and lateral entry.

13
Supply-side theory and racial representation

• Impact of the racial composition of the candidate
  pool in the Democratic primary on the type of
  candidate who wins.
• North Carolina case study racial motivation of
  candidates Willie Riddick and Don Smith.
• If the Dem. primary field is all African American
  candidates, commonality candidate wins. If a
  white candidate runs, difference candidate
  wins. Why?
• Role of the case study discover the causal
  mechanism.
• Impact on racial representation.
• Parallel to arguments that the Supreme Court made
  in Ashcroft for influence districts. Here is it
  white voters who are exerting influence on the
  type of candidate who wins.

14
Controlling for alternative explanations

• The ice cream/crime example (need to control for
  the season).
• Alternative explanations for the nature of racial
  representation that emerges in the new black
  majority districts region, black, income.
  Does the supply side theory hold up when
  considering these alternatives? How best to
  measure income?

15
Context of the supply side

• Opportunity Structure
• pattern of office holding in a given state or for
  a given office. The layering of local, state,
  and federal office.
• Open or relatively closed weak party systems
  versus party machines.
• Party influence party has a stake in trying to
  recruit the best candidates to run for office.
• Direct Recruitment.
• negative recruitment.