Kosovo Serbs: Whats Their Political Future

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Kosovo Serbs Whats Their Political Future?

• An Inside Perspective
• Washington DC, 8th January 2008
• Nenad Simovic

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Source OSCE
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• Parallel institutions education, healthcare,
  post offices, banks, judiciary, public
  administration, municipal coordinators (mayors)
• Crossing bridges car license removing

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The Bridge That Divides
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Russia, help us!
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• Belgrade based DS, DSS, SRS, SPS, SDP
• Kosovo based SLS, SNS, SNSDKIM, SKMS, SDSKIM, ND

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Knowledge from the past

• Serbian electorate in Kosovo 101,688 (according
  to Serbian Parliamentary Elections, January 2007)
• Voters 53,87 (54.776)
• Abstainers 46,13 (46.912)

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Serbian Parliamentary Elections January 2007
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• Three groups of political players
• Hard wing DSS, SRS, SPS
• Moderate DS, SDP, G17
• Others SPO, PSS,.

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Serbian Parliamentary Elections January 2007
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Serbian Parliamentary Elections January 2007
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• None of these parties were registered in Kosovo
• Serbs electorate who voted for these parties in
  the past, had no opportunity to do so in these
  Kosovo elections
• Kosovo Serbs political parties registered in
  Kosovo have very tight voter base
• a limited number of the Serb Elections abstainers
  
• a limited number of those who voted for
  moderate players
• and a small number of party members as well as
  families and close friends of the party officials

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3297 3,24
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If you had the opportunity to choose, what
political option would you choose, namely to whom
would you give your vote if elections in Kosovo
were to be held today?
74 determined voters from Serbian community
support three political options DSS 33, SRS
33, SPS 8
Strategic Marketing, November 2007
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SNS Main Party Policy

• Tend to be center right
• Existence and return of Serbs to Kosovo
• Safety of Serbs community in Kosovo
• Economic development
• Strengthening of economic and social relations
  with Serbia

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SLS Main Party Policy

• Center-right, liberal economic policy
• Return of Serbs to Kosovo
• Economic development not only of Serbian
  community in Kosovo but Kosovo as a whole
• Existence of Serbs community in Kosovo
• Development of multiethnic society
• EU integration

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• Kosovo Serbs
• Serbian Government

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Agenda

• 16th January UN Security Council
• 18th January strategic partnership with GAZPROM
  (Sofia, Bulgaria Putin?)
• 20th January presidential elections 1st round
• 28th January SAA ratification with EU and EU
  Council decision of sending its mission to Kosovo
  ?
• 3rd February presidential elections 2nd round

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• Serbia, Russia continuation of negotiation
• K-Albanian sets date for UDI
• K-Serbs flee
• Prospect of violence - North Mitrovica - the
  likely flash point
• Trade embargo
• Rigid control of movements of people and goods
  over the borders with Kosovo
• Withdrawal of diplomats
• Breaking of diplomatic relations with some small
  neighbouring countries (Macedonia, Albania,
• Declining of diplomatic missions with big players

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• Turbulences within Serbian Government caused by
  disagreements between Tadic and Kostunica
  regarding Serbian Gov countermeasures
• Possible reconstruction of actual SG and
  coalition of DSS-SRS or extraordinary elections
• Economic destabilization of Serbia /Inflation
• Suspension of CEFTA agreement
• Uncontrolled sporadic armed conflicts in Kosovo
  between Serbs and Albanians
• Independence/Partition of North Kosovo
• Strengthening of extremists within both Serbian
  and Albanian communities