KS and NE Red Flag Warning Climatology

1
KS and NE Red Flag Warning Climatology

• Scott Mentzer
• Todd Shoemake
• NWS Goodland, Kansas

2
Some Background info

• Red Flag program
• Highlights life threatening fire conditions to
  fire fighters and other fire management officials
  
• Assuming dry fuels exist, program is based
  primarily on surface winds and RH
• Full Fire WX program became operational across NE
  and KS this week including a Red Flag Program

3
Some Background info

• KS statewide fire management meeting held on
  4/20/06 in Salina
• Implemented RFW program
• Defined criteria for the program, West vs. East
• NE statewide fire management meeting held on
  6/20/06 in Hastings
• RFW climatology for NE was presented
• RFW program was implemented with thresholds
  based on presented climatology

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Purpose

• Provide data to discussion about Red Flag Warning
  criteria
• Provide useful information to NWS offices
  regarding staffing strategies
• Provide useful information to NWS forecasters
  about normal red flag start and stop times

5
Methodology

• Hourly surface weather observations were obtained
  for 30 years (1976-2005) at the following KS
  sites
• Goodland (GLD)
• Hill City (HLC)
• Garden City (GCK)
• Dodge City (DDC)
• Concordia (CNK)
• Salina (SLN)
• Wichita (ICT)
• Topeka (TOP)
• Chanute (CNU)

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Methodology (continued)

• Hourly surface weather observations were obtained
  for 30 years (1976-2005) at the following NE
  sites
• Valentine (VTN)
• North Platte (LBF)
• McCook (MCK)
• Hastings (GID)
• Norfolk (OFK)
• Omaha (OMA)

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Methodology (Continued)

• Roughly 3.9 million observations were reviewed
  using Excel and locally written code.
• The study examined possible wind and relative
  humidity thresholds for red flag warnings
• Criteria 1 (winds gt15 mph / RH lt15)
• Criteria 2 (winds gt25 mph / RH lt15)
• Criteria 3 (winds gt15 mph / RH lt20)
• Criteria 4 (winds gt 25 mph / RH lt20)
• Fuel information is not included in the study.

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Number of NE Events 1976-2005
Criteria 1 Criteria 2 Criteria 3 Criteria 4
Station lt15 gt15 mph lt15 gt25 mph lt20 gt15 mph lt20 gt25 mph
OMA 20 11 106 101
OFK 105 64 248 233
GID 94 53 265 209
LBF 201 111 775 374
MCK 289 160 751 433
VTN 329 91 990 423
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Average Number of NE Events / Year
Criteria 1 Criteria 2 Criteria 3 Criteria 4
Station lt15 gt15 mph lt15 gt25 mph lt20 gt15 mph lt20 gt25 mph
OMA 1 lt 1 4 3
OFK 4 2 8 8
GID 3 2 9 7
LBF 7 4 26 12
MCK 10 5 25 14
VTN 11 3 33 14
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Number of KS Events 1976-2005
Station lt15 gt25 mph Station lt20 gt15 mph
GLD 372 CNK 177
HLC 185 SLN 221
GCK 303 ICT 237
DDC 273 TOP 132
CNU 79
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Average Number of KS Events / Year
Station lt15 gt25 mph Station lt20 gt15 mph
GLD 12 CNK 6
HLC 6 SLN 7
GCK 10 ICT 8
DDC 9 TOP 4
CNU 3
12
STATION EVENTS PER YEAR
GCK 10
DDC 9
RH lt 15 Wind gt 25mph
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When do these events begin?
Avg Start Time 2016Z (1416 LST / 1516
LDT) Avg Event Length 2.9 hours
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LBF Start Times
Avg Start Time 2033Z (1433LST / 1533
LDT) Avg Event Length 2.3 hours
15
OFK Start Times
Avg Start Time 2014Z (1414LST / 1514
LDT) Avg Event Length 2.7 hours
16
ICT Start Times
Avg Start Time 2001Z (1401LST / 1501
LDT) Avg Event Length 3.1 hours
17
Is there a Red Flag Season in the High Plains?
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North Platte, NE
19
Norfolk, NE
20
Wichita, KS
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Some Conclusions

• Red Flag events throughout the KS and NE domain
  typically start between 2000-2100UTC.
• There is no well-defined Red Flag season
• The preliminary thresholds that were established
  for KS agree with climatology and seem sufficient
  for Fire WX Operations.

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Data Online
Previous data along with the remaining KS and NE
sites are available online at http//www.crh.noaa
.gov/gld/?nfirewx/redflagclimo.php
Hopefully this data will act as a planning tool
for fellow NWS personnel as well as Fire
Management officials.